Tourney File: Michigan State

Here is the third of a periodic breakdown of teams expected to be in the NCAA Tournament

Michigan State

Book it. With a huge resume win at home over top-ranked Wisconsin, the Spartans punched their dance ticket last night.


What to Like: Defense. Over the next month, you will hear me harp and harp that I believe great team defense is the biggest indicator of tournament success. This Michigan State squad can absolutely 'D' up. They lead the Big Ten in points allowed per game, which is partially due to their extremely slow pace of play. But their points per possession and effective field goal percentage against stats are stellar as well. Perhaps most impressively is how consistent their 'D' has been (see BigTenWonk link for full analysis -- great site). They've been there game in and game out.

What to be Pleasantly Surprised By: Drew Neitzel. The junior point guard and leader of the Spartans has absolutely dominated in some big games. He dropped in 28 on 10-17 shooting (6-11 on 3's) last night against the Badgers and had 21 in the second half of a valiant comeback that fell short at Ohio State. A natural scoring point in high school, Neitzel took a passive offensive role behind the likes of Maurice Ager, Shannon Brown and Paul Davis in his first two years before breaking out on the scene this season.

What Will Keep Them From Winning: Turnovers. It's been ugly in East Lansing in terms of holding onto the ball. Prior to Monday's game, State was turning the ball over at a rate of 26% of their offensive possessions. It's been the Achilles heel of an otherwise efficient offense.

What We Don't Know: If the Spartans can get a consistent second scoring option. It's been Neitzel offensively with a slew of Spartans chipping in some baskets. Michigan State will need either freshman Raymar Morgan or some their bigs to step up to take some of the scoring load off Neitzel's back. Morgan will be the next big stud in East Lansing, but recently struggled through the Spartans 4 game losing streak, averaging just 9 points per game including a season low 2-point effort in a home loss to Ohio State.

X-Factor: Tom Izzo. How many other teams can match up with the tournament experience and success of the Spartans' coach? Izzo has led State to four Final Fours ('99, '00, '01, '05) in the past decade and won the 2000 NCAA title. It seems like every March we are talking about Izzo having his team peaking at the right time.

Who Do They Want to Play?: UCLA, Nevada or Duke. This is your typical Izzo coached team, keyed around defense and rebounding. Michigan State has slowed it down with the best of them, averaging just 62.5 possessions per game this season (308th in D-1). They are very efficient and crash the boards proficiently and should match up well against any of these teams that will play at their pace and allow them to run their sets.

Who Don't They Want to Play?: Kansas, Memphis or Texas A&M. The Spartans recently lost by 24 at Purdue, a team that forces a lot of turnovers. Hectic, athletic defensive teams with good guards who can turn up the heat (think Mario Chalmers and Russell Robinson at Kansas) will give them fits offensively.

Prediction: The Spartans are going to be a scary, scary draw for some top seed, as they figure to fall in the 8-11 seed range depending on how the rest of the season plays out (IU, @Mich, @Wisconsin, Big Ten Tournament). This group may not be as talented as the Ager-Brown-Davis teams of the past few years which frustrated State fans by failing to meet expectations, but they play well together and bear down on the defensive end. It's one of the handful of high seeds I'd be closely examining the draw and can see a major run through the brackets.

-- RK