Got Cred?

Here's my breakdown of the NCAA tournament, using my highly scienfific method of looking at the conference standings, schedules, and RPI ratings. This projection is based upon the one bid leagues, such as C-USA, the WAC and the Horizon league being won by their listed squads. If not, then teams like Clemson, West Virginia, Tennessee, Illinois, Arizona, and Missouri State will be sweating like Italians before the day ends.

The Field of 65

America East (1): Conference champion
Atlantic 10 (1): Conference champion
ACC (7): North Carolina, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Boston College, Duke, Maryland, Clemson
Atlantic Sun (1): Conference champion
Big 12 (6): Kansas, Texas A&M, Texas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech
Big East (7): Pittsburgh, Georgetown, Louisville, Notre dame, Marquette, West Virginia, Villanova
Big Sky (1): Conference champion
Big South (1): Winthrop
Big Ten (5): Wisconsin, Ohio State, Indiana, Michigan State, Illinois
Big West (1): Conference champion
CAA (1): Conference champion
Conference USA (1): Memphis
Horizon (1): Butler
Ivy (1): Conference champion
MAAC (1): Conference champion
Mid-Continent (1): Conference champion
MAC (1): Conference champion
MEAC (1): Conference champion
MVC (3): Southern Illinois, Creighton, Missouri State
MWC (3): Air Force, BYU, UNLV
NEC (1): Conference champion
OVC (1): Conference champion
Pac-10 (6): UCLA, Washington State, USC, Stanford, Oregon, Arizona,
Patriot (1): Conference champion
SEC (5): Florida, Vanderbillt, Kentucky, Alabama, Tennessee
Southern (1): Conference champion
Southland (1): Conference champion
SWAC (1): Conference champion
Sun Belt (1): Conference champion
WCC (1): Conference champion
WAC (1): Nevada

On the Bubble:

Bradley (RPI 29): Why down on the Braves? Bradley was hammered by bubble team Michigan State by 29 in December, lost by 21 to Wichita State and have yet to beat the three best teams in the MVC-- Missouri State, Southern Illionois or Creighton. They did beat Virginia Commonwealth, but that win is looking less impressive as VCU's profile continues to sag.

Old Dominion (RPI 44): The Monarchs have no more key games remaining in the regular season, facing middle of the pack Towson and William & Mary. Neither team is to be underestimated (8-8 in the CAA), but neither win will help their profile. In order for ODU to make the tournament as an at-large, they would need to have a dominating performance in the CAA tournament, and lose by one in the finals.

Georgia Tech (RPI 45): The worst enemy for the Yellow Jackets is their incompetence within the conference. Despite picking up a key win at Memphis and at home against Duke, Georgia Tech has failed to capitalize against tourney bound teams Maryland, Virginia Tech, and Clemson. In order to boost their profile, Tech needs to sweep Virginia, UNC and Boston College to get moved into the lock category. As of right now, Clemson and Maryland sit above them by virtue of beating the Yellow Jackets two out of three times they've matched up.

Georgia (RPI 54): The skinny is that the Dawgs didn't take care of business in a four game stretch against Georgia Tech, Clemson, Wisconsin, and Florida. Look for Georgia to get overlooked, barring a run to the SEC title game. If they do make the tournament, however, keep them in your mind as a team that can spring an upset. Levi Stukes has a deadly three point stroke, shooting 43.7% from distance this season.

DePaul (RPI 56): Approaching that coveted .500/one game better than .500 mark is DePaul, who overcame a slow start this season (including losses to Northwestern, Purdue, and UAB) to knock off likely NCAA teams Notre Dame and Marquette. DePaul gets another shot at Notre Dame tonight (in progress), but needs to win this game, as well as two games in the Big East tournament to make their case stronger.

UPDATE: The Blue Demons were destroyed by Notre Dame tonight, further lowering their chances for an at-large.

VCU (RPI 57): Oddly, the best team in the Colonial has a weaker profile than Old Dominion. The Rams are plauged by a a poor early season schedule, losing two games to possible tournament teams Appalachian State and Xavier, and a Bracket Buster game againt Bradley, who will likely miss the tournament this year.

Michigan (RPI 58): The Wolverines have the same story as everybody else on this bubble watch-- lack of marquee wins. I don't think a team who got drilled by 37 by UCLA is ever going to be a tournament team. Best case is if the Wolverines can upset either Ohio State or Wisconsin, and manage to keep it close in the final. Other than that, welcome back to the NIT!

Gonzaga (RPI 71): There are teams with better computer numbers than Mark Few's team, but there are very few teams (bubble or otherwise) with the out of conference profile that they have managed to compile. Obviously, the arrest and subsequent suspension of Josh Heytvelt cripples this team, but there is a remote chance that the committee rewards this team for their work early on-- knocking down North Carolina and Texas. This, of course, is negated by their losses to Duke, Nevada and Virginia.

UPDATE: Heytvelt was charged with felony drug possession, meaning that the test completed by the state lab came back with definitive results. Say bye-bye to the 'Zags' at-large tournament hopes.

Winthrop (RPI 72): Craig Bradshaw and the Eagles almost knocked down Tennessee in the tournament last year, and gave UNC all they could handle in a neutral site game in Charlotte, played winnable games against Maryland and Wisconsin (lost by 11 and 3, respectively), with one bad loss to Texas A&M by 20. The good, is that they beat fellow bubbler Old Dominion in Norfolk by six. Why are they on the bubble with such a marginal profile? Personally, I'd throw them into the tournament over a lot of the middle of the pack power teams. And I will now jump off of my soapbox.

Updated at 10:10 pm, February 20

(posted by JH)