Duke is headed for the NIT tournament.
Or so it would seem.
After last night's fourth consecutive loss in ACC play, the Duke Blue Devils are in uncharted territory for this time of year-- the bubble. Just one season removed from a run to the Sweet Sixteen, and just six years removed from a national title, the Cameron Crazies are about to join the faithful fans of "lesser" basketball institutions such as the Campbell Camels, Ohio Bobcats and the Buffalo Bulls as fans with no team in the Big Dance.
How did this happen? For starters, Coach K appears to have strayed away from recruiting the three most important players to his last title run-- athletic point guards and a true scoring post player. With Williams and Duhon, the Blue Devils were able to man up against any team in the country, and not have to worry about guards slashing to the basket at will. Carlos Boozer was the team's crutch; in games where Dunleavy's threes weren't falling, or if Williams couldn't quite turn the corner, Boozer was there to muscle his way to easy baskets. 
The current edition of Duke doesn't have any of those components. The most athletic player on the team is Demarcus Nelson, who's usually tasked with guarding off the ball, even though he'd probably be better served on the ball to plug the sieve that is Greg Paulus' defense. Inside, they just don't have the muscle. Josh McRoberts is a white Darius Miles, in that his speciality is finishing plays with dunks and little else. There are arguably three players on Duke's team who would have even seen the court during their title run: Nelson, Jon Scheyer, and Gerald Henderson.
How can Duke improve? More zone, and more Gerald Henderson. By moving to a zone, the Blue Devils can neutralize other teams' athletic superiority and force them to shoot from the outside. With the lack of marquee three point shooters this season, it is a safe gamble to make other teams beat you from 18'6".
By playing Henderson more, they get more athletic, plain and simple. Paulus may be the mold of every Duke point guard, but there is nothing that would suggest that Henderson would do a worse job covering the opposition's lead guard than Paulus has.
Last season, Duke was exposed by Louisiana State when the Tigers played tight defense, and funnelled them to their shot blockers inside. Coach K appears to have fixed this situation by recruiting more athletic players who could finish those shots that were eventually made Tyrus Thomas a millionaire despite having zero tangible offensive skills.
Will Duke miss the tournament? I don't think so. Even with their four straight losses, Duke is still sitting at 14th in the latest ESPN RPI standings. Plus, we've seen this kind of finish before in 2004 when Maryland, as the sixth seed, won the ACC tournament by gelling at the right time. If K can keep his team focused, Duke will salvage what's left of the ACC regular season, and make the tournament. If not, we may be seeing Dick Vitale's head explode on national television when the brackets are announced, and Duke is absent.
Not that it is a bad thing. It'd just be hell on the janitorial staff.
(posted by JH)
11 comments:
nova:duke as bsmb:boston sports
-theny
Good post. I don't think Duke misses unless they go 6-10 in conference -- their non-conference resume is just too good.
It should be noted that Paulus and McRoberts were huge recruits out of HS though. I know McRoberts was the #1 ranked PF and I believe Paulus was top-5 PG in his class.
Nice clinching line.
Duke is not going to miss the tournament - I don't think they'd allow it. I also still don't think they deserve to be on the bubble yet.
For the most part, a couple of key recruits haven't panned out like I think they were planning. I don't remember what the scouting report on Paulus coming out of high school was, but I think he was the top-rated PG in the country. Athlete or not, he sucks. He should be bringing a lot more to the table than poor defense and 7 turnovers a game.
As of now, you're right, McRoberts is like a Darius Miles (actually, in more ways than you mention). But do you not remember that when he came to Duke the consensus was that he was going to be dominant enough that it was a sure thing that he'd be headed for the NBA draft after one year?
My point is that even if you concede that they don't have the right type of players, it should also be acknowledged that many of the current players aren't coming even close to living up to their hype.
Lastly, the team is very young, with little to no veteran leadership. I would expect some growing pains, considering we've established that they have no young world-beaters like Greg Oden. And OSU has great veteran leadership with Jamar Butler and Ron Lewis, and is in a weaker conference.
Haha, Kasko and I think alike.
I think what keeps Paulus from being a great player is that he doesn't have the ability to blow by his man on the offensive end of the floor. Steve Nash is a lousy defender, but he is at least able to get past his man and get into the lane for a dish to the big men. Paulus can get to the foul line (maybe) before his man recovers.
I do remember the McRoberts talk, and I thought it was bullshit then. The man has one more-- catch the ball at the high post, rip through, two hard dribbles to the right, spin left, off the glass. LSU did their homework, and swatted his shots into Bolivian.
Is Paulus crying in the pic on the frontpage of ESPN right now? A buddy and I at work are debating it.
rob would be kasko. no idea why it's changing up on me.
You are all are jealous!
Us Dookies share a special man-love that you jerks know nothing about!!
1shining moment needs to start linking to some of the major blogs, and getting a little love back. You've got the content, now you just need to get the readership
I suppose we can almost move Duke back into lock status after the win at BC last night. I'd assume they'll at least split the home schedule and get to 8-8 at worst in conference. No way they won't get in with that.
I agree, RK. Duke's in, but for how long? Knowing the basketball god's, this is the year the make a run to the national seminfals.
Post a Comment