The best case for Illinois (18-9, 6-6) might be that, when the dust settles, this turns out to be the fourth best team in the Big Ten. Sure, the committee will tell you it looks at individual profiles and does not consider conference affiliation, but I personally have a hard time believing that. All in all, Illinois may be helped more by the shortcomings of others (Michigan State's recent slide, Purdue's inability to get a marquee win in Columbus, Iowa's non-conference resume) than its own profile. As of today, respected bracketologist Joe Lunardi over at ESPN had moved Illinois into his field as the last team dancing with an at-large profile, which is odd because they slid from out of the field to in despite losing over the weekend in Bloomington.This could be one of the most bland and boring profiles you will see out there, something that makes this a difficult case to discuss. There are no wins on the resume that jump out at you (best wins being Indiana and MSU at home, neutral over Bradley), yet there are no cringe-worthy losses on the slate either (worst loss at Michigan) -- something that seems unlikely to change before conference play closes out. Illinois sees home dates with Northwestern and Michigan and a trip to Penn State before a crucial showdown with the Hawkeyes in Iowa City to close the conference schedule.
The common opinion seems to be that 9-7 will have the Illini sweating bullets on Selection Sunday and 10-6 should have them firmly in. The scary thing is it's looking more and more like the Illini will see Iowa twice in a week (at Iowa on March 3 and then in the 4/5 game in the Big Ten quarters) before even getting a crack at stamping their dance card with a marquee W over the likes of a Wisconsin or Ohio State.
It's been an unusual year for fans down in the C-U and it would be quite the empty and odd feeling thumbing the sports pages for the Illini's NIT matchup instead of checking the listings for their 1st-round start time in the NCAAs. Hopefully, the committee will look favorably upon their numerous injuries (McBride, Randle, Frazier, Smith and Semreau have all missed large chunks of play this year) and their relatively strong computer numbers (41 in RPI, 17 in SOS through Sunday).
If the bubble bursts, I can't say I blame the committee. The Illini have definately had their share of chances, blowing second half leads in many of their losses and falling short time and again to get their staple win to hang their hats on. Until then, it's pins and needles for the orange and blue.
-- RK
(P.S. I forgot for a second google image searching "Bruce Weber" returns gay art. Fantastic.)
1 comment:
Not really much with which to disagree here. I really don't see a qualitative difference amongst the teams in the middle tier of the Big Ten (with the exception of Michigan and their annual fade) - they've all held serve against each other at home. If Purdue picks up a road win at Iowa, however, that will worry me, considering its working of the Illini. And I think MSU will get in over the Illini if it's a close call, as that means they probably will have attained a quality win, and have a better OOC resume. Most likely, looking at all the skeds, I think Illinois and Iowa end up playing for 4th place to close out the Big Ten schedule in Iowa City.
The thing that hurts is that the Illini could've essentially punched their ticket with a win against the [undefeated at home] Hoosiers; instead, they blew another late lead. My hope is that they look at all the injuries and take into account the effect that had on losses without the missing players, but also how it hampered their ability to gel as a team. Personally, I don't buy this - there's not enough deviation in quality of player in our top 8. But it's an attractive theory, one that could be the tipping point one way or another when comparing them to the other bubble teams.
10-6, no BTT win - 75:25 in.
10-6, 1 BTT win - 100:0 in
9-7, 0 BTT win - 35:65
9-7, 1 BTT win - 75:25
8-8, They better not be fucking 8-8. They'd need a run with a win over IU, UW, or OSU.
The middle tier of the Big Ten is really fun to analyze.
I've gone through a ton of predicted combinations of wins and losses to determine who'd be in and who'd be out and it's still a mystery tier. I think one of either Illinois, Purdue, or Michigan State get in as the 4th team.
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