Kasko's Picks:
Sweet 16
Purdue, Maryland, Winthrop, UNLV
Kansas, Southern Illinois, Pittsburgh, UCLA
UNC, Arkansas, Washington State, Georgetown
Ohio State, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Memphis
Regionals
Maryland over Winthrop
UCLA over Southern Illinois
UNC over Georgetown
Ohio State over Texas A&M
Final Four
UCLA over Maryland
UNC over Ohio State
UNC over UCLA
PS's Picks
Sweet 16
Florida, Maryland, Winthrop, Wisconsin
Kansas, Southern Illinois, Pittsburgh, UCLA
North Carolina, Texas, Vanderbuilt, Georgetown
Ohio State, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Memphis
Elite 8
Maryland over Wisconsin
Kansas over Pittsburgh
Georgetown over North Carolina
Texas A&M over Ohio State
Final 4
Kansas over Maryland
Georgetown over Texas A&M
Georgetown over Kansas
JH's Pick
Sweet 16
Florida, Maryland, Oregon, UNLV
Kansas, Virginia Tech, Pitt, Indiana
UNC, Texas, George Washington, Georgetown
Ohio State, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Creighton
Elite 8
Florida, UNLV
Virginia Tech, Pitt
Texas, Georgetown
Ohio State, Texas A&M
Final Four
Florida, Pitt
Texas, Texas A&M
Texas over Florida
Showing posts with label NCAA tournament. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NCAA tournament. Show all posts
Monday, March 19, 2007
Saturday, March 17, 2007
Friday Chicago Wrap-Up
You may (or may not) have noticed my presence missing here at OSM today. Fear not, I was actually busy at the games after waking my hung-over ass up early to get down to the United Center here in Chicago to catch the action. Here’s what I saw:
Early game:
The early game featured UNLV and Georgia Tech with the Rebs coming out on top. UNLV was able to hold down Tech’s fantastic freshman duo of Crittenton and Young to minimal damage and survive and advance in a tight game at the end. The Rebels did a phenomenal job on the glass, particularly on the offensive end, something I felt like could give Wisconsin (minus Brian Butch) fits in round two. Despite winning, UNLV shot relatively poorly on many open looks. I really feel like the Rebels have a very good shot at knocking off the reeling Badgers on Sunday.
Second Set:
It really is amazing how much America loves the Cinderella story. A couple of threes and a 10-0 lead and it was astounding how quickly the United Center crowd was rallying behind the 15th-seeded Islanders. It wasn’t even so much that Texas A&M-Corpus Christi was outplaying Wisconsin. I thought Corpus Christi’s up-and-down pace took Wisconsin out of their comfort zone in the first half (something that disappeared as time went on) and the flipping between the man and zone defenses kept Wisconsin on their heels. The bottom line, though, was the Badgers were ice cold from the field. They were missing wide open jumpers left and right. Fortunately, for them, Kammron Taylor (played by Chris Rock) got his head out of his ass and figured out he didn’t want this to be his last college game. Alando Tucker had a relatively quiet (but very solid) game and Corpus Christi’s 7-footer Chris Daniels ate up the short-handed Badgers down low.
Third Set:
Instead of watching Kansas run train on Niagara, my buddy Rage and I used the break in between games to get some seats at the bar for the Illinois-Virginia Tech game. If you haven’t seen much of Illinois this season, this game was their season in a nutshell. I began mentally preparing to write in this post that the Illini played their most complete game of the season. They controlled the pace, held Dowdell and Washington completely in check and dominated the glass. The offense looked competent for once and their role players (Meacham, Arnold and Brock) played phenomenally solid. Then… shit hit the fan. The Illini completely crapped the bed. Credit the Hokies for putting on the press and converting their chances, but Illinois seemed to take the foot off the pedal and started playing not to lose. They turned the ball over nearly every possession and missed their shots and free throws. I’m sure Illiniboard will have some sort of conspiracy theory with the refs brewing, citing the no-call on Warren Carter with under a minute left (a horrendous no-call, by the way), but the fact is Illinois completely blew the game and didn’t execute at all the last 8 or so minutes. Ugggh – terrible times. Another blown halftime lead, another heartbreaker. This was just an Illini team that couldn’t stretch leads (due to their horrific offense) and couldn’t close games due to their lack of a go-to scorer and inability to convert free throws. That right there is a terrible combo.
Nightcap:
I was pretty mentally cashed out by this point, unfortunately. Randolph Morris was a beast. Scottie Reynolds was a chucker. I did run into Coach Jay Wright at the end of the game. He wanted me to pass along to the OSM readers that he felt like he dressed phenomenally sexy on the sidelines tonight, once again. Kansas-Kentucky should be a spectacle at the UC on Sunday. I hope it’s warm out so that the Wildcat faithful can bust out their jorts (jean shorts) for the game. They probably lowered the average tooth count in the stands by a good 1-2 teeth today. Oh, stereotypes!
Random Thoughts:
- The Big Ten was 5-1 in round 1. Texas almost choked. If only Reggie Theus had played Julie Connor more. She’s lethal from 3. Suck a dick, Bill Simmons.
- You can’t put a price on walking back to the stadium for the 4th game and walking by a greyhound bus filled with depressed, face-painted Niagara fans. It was like they came all this way and expected to win. Good scene.
- Funniest conversation of the first round: Narrowly beating out the hour-long convo I had with a few girls over which NCAA mascot (non-animal like Colorado’s buffalo or Georgia’s bulldog) would be the creepiest to fuck in full costume, was this gem. So we have a buddy that knows very little about sports that spent the Thursday with us. Very good looking dude, has absolutely no game whatsoever. None, zero, zilch. He and Rage (Duke fan) head to the bar to catch the Duke game last night because it wasn’t on regional coverage (Michigan State-Marquette). We met them out for the last set. Pretty empty scene, but they were sitting a few seats down from a set of girls. Shortly after the Idong Ibok injury (awesome stuff there), the girls gets into a convo with our buddy, naturally over what is going on.
Terrible. How do you not fill out a bracket? How can you not even bullshit yourself into a Final Four? Moreover, how do you completely blow it with a girl that is willing to talk sports and is at a bar to watch sports. This kid is going to hear about this from me tomorrow
- The NCAA pisses me off. Ways they could improve the viewing experience at the venue:
- In case you are wondering, I hit 24/32 games. Since there were virtually no upsets (none of the top-5 seeds went down) I assume everyone's brackets are fine and that everyone is still in the game. I'm still rocking 15/16 Sweet 16s (missed Arkansas). I fully expect the brackets to break wide open in the next two rounds. It's bound to happen.
-- RK
Early game:
The early game featured UNLV and Georgia Tech with the Rebs coming out on top. UNLV was able to hold down Tech’s fantastic freshman duo of Crittenton and Young to minimal damage and survive and advance in a tight game at the end. The Rebels did a phenomenal job on the glass, particularly on the offensive end, something I felt like could give Wisconsin (minus Brian Butch) fits in round two. Despite winning, UNLV shot relatively poorly on many open looks. I really feel like the Rebels have a very good shot at knocking off the reeling Badgers on Sunday.
Second Set:
It really is amazing how much America loves the Cinderella story. A couple of threes and a 10-0 lead and it was astounding how quickly the United Center crowd was rallying behind the 15th-seeded Islanders. It wasn’t even so much that Texas A&M-Corpus Christi was outplaying Wisconsin. I thought Corpus Christi’s up-and-down pace took Wisconsin out of their comfort zone in the first half (something that disappeared as time went on) and the flipping between the man and zone defenses kept Wisconsin on their heels. The bottom line, though, was the Badgers were ice cold from the field. They were missing wide open jumpers left and right. Fortunately, for them, Kammron Taylor (played by Chris Rock) got his head out of his ass and figured out he didn’t want this to be his last college game. Alando Tucker had a relatively quiet (but very solid) game and Corpus Christi’s 7-footer Chris Daniels ate up the short-handed Badgers down low.
Third Set:
Instead of watching Kansas run train on Niagara, my buddy Rage and I used the break in between games to get some seats at the bar for the Illinois-Virginia Tech game. If you haven’t seen much of Illinois this season, this game was their season in a nutshell. I began mentally preparing to write in this post that the Illini played their most complete game of the season. They controlled the pace, held Dowdell and Washington completely in check and dominated the glass. The offense looked competent for once and their role players (Meacham, Arnold and Brock) played phenomenally solid. Then… shit hit the fan. The Illini completely crapped the bed. Credit the Hokies for putting on the press and converting their chances, but Illinois seemed to take the foot off the pedal and started playing not to lose. They turned the ball over nearly every possession and missed their shots and free throws. I’m sure Illiniboard will have some sort of conspiracy theory with the refs brewing, citing the no-call on Warren Carter with under a minute left (a horrendous no-call, by the way), but the fact is Illinois completely blew the game and didn’t execute at all the last 8 or so minutes. Ugggh – terrible times. Another blown halftime lead, another heartbreaker. This was just an Illini team that couldn’t stretch leads (due to their horrific offense) and couldn’t close games due to their lack of a go-to scorer and inability to convert free throws. That right there is a terrible combo.
Nightcap:
I was pretty mentally cashed out by this point, unfortunately. Randolph Morris was a beast. Scottie Reynolds was a chucker. I did run into Coach Jay Wright at the end of the game. He wanted me to pass along to the OSM readers that he felt like he dressed phenomenally sexy on the sidelines tonight, once again. Kansas-Kentucky should be a spectacle at the UC on Sunday. I hope it’s warm out so that the Wildcat faithful can bust out their jorts (jean shorts) for the game. They probably lowered the average tooth count in the stands by a good 1-2 teeth today. Oh, stereotypes!
Random Thoughts:
- The Big Ten was 5-1 in round 1. Texas almost choked. If only Reggie Theus had played Julie Connor more. She’s lethal from 3. Suck a dick, Bill Simmons.
- You can’t put a price on walking back to the stadium for the 4th game and walking by a greyhound bus filled with depressed, face-painted Niagara fans. It was like they came all this way and expected to win. Good scene.
- Funniest conversation of the first round: Narrowly beating out the hour-long convo I had with a few girls over which NCAA mascot (non-animal like Colorado’s buffalo or Georgia’s bulldog) would be the creepiest to fuck in full costume, was this gem. So we have a buddy that knows very little about sports that spent the Thursday with us. Very good looking dude, has absolutely no game whatsoever. None, zero, zilch. He and Rage (Duke fan) head to the bar to catch the Duke game last night because it wasn’t on regional coverage (Michigan State-Marquette). We met them out for the last set. Pretty empty scene, but they were sitting a few seats down from a set of girls. Shortly after the Idong Ibok injury (awesome stuff there), the girls gets into a convo with our buddy, naturally over what is going on.
Girl: “So who do you got in your Final Four?”
Buddy: “Uhhhh… uhhh… UNC… uhhh… Rage, who do you got in your Final Four?”
Terrible. How do you not fill out a bracket? How can you not even bullshit yourself into a Final Four? Moreover, how do you completely blow it with a girl that is willing to talk sports and is at a bar to watch sports. This kid is going to hear about this from me tomorrow
- The NCAA pisses me off. Ways they could improve the viewing experience at the venue:
(1) Show the other games! If not at halftime or between sets on the jumbotron, then at least put the other games on in the concourse. Listen, I’m paying $240 for 6 games, show me the other games when you get a chance.
(2) Along the same token, show the days’ highlights. All day long we saw 1 highlight over and over, that being the highlights of the 2006 national title game. Gee, I wonder who won that one?
(3) Have a sense of humor. They did put some classic NCAA moments up on the jumbotron during TV timeouts. You know that key Kentucky run that caused Villanova to call a timeout and got the UK faithful riled up? All I’m asking for here is ’92 Laettner on the big screen. You played it earlier, but now would be perfect.
(4) Serve beer. I don’t think I need to expand upon this.
- In case you are wondering, I hit 24/32 games. Since there were virtually no upsets (none of the top-5 seeds went down) I assume everyone's brackets are fine and that everyone is still in the game. I'm still rocking 15/16 Sweet 16s (missed Arkansas). I fully expect the brackets to break wide open in the next two rounds. It's bound to happen.
-- RK
Wednesday, March 14, 2007
Gamblers' Delight
It's like Christmas Eve right now. As I pen this post, we sit 12 hours from opening tip of the 2007 NCAA Tournament. I've got the keg sitting on ice, my cable split between two TVs and the bracket filled out, but outside of fun, I also look forward to this month for other reasons -- the money. This month is pure gamblers' paradise, not just because of the load of games, but because of the mutliple gambling outlets that open themselves to you. A look...
(1) Your standard office pool
This is the one everyone enters and the secretary who let her 8-year-old daughter pick her teams somehow seems to win. So how do you curb this? Go big. Listen, odds are your standard office pool has more than 20 people in it. If you chalk your bracket, you might as well be writing a blank check. Chalk never happens unless you are accidentally filling out the dykes bracket in between munching Pokey Chatman's box. Too many people take nearly-chalked brackets and the guy who takes the year's sleeper will leapfrog you. Identify your sleepers and go with it. Find the 1-seeds who will fall early and follow through. You're not winning anything big unless you're taking some calculated risks.
My biggest pet peeve of the office pools is the number of different formats. Does your pool reward lower seeded winners? Then be inclined to take more first round upsets (that's where you make the points). Do the points in your bracket double each round or are the points curbed back to the earlier rounds (my preference)? Better focus your efforts on the right rounds.
(2) Fantasy Madness
Think your typical fantasy league and think March. Pre-tournament you line up a player draft (selecting anywhere from 6-10 players per team) and add up each players' tournament points scored come April. One of my co-workers swears by this each year. Obviously, the leading scorers of the top seeds (guys like Oden, Hansborough, Wright and Horford) are going to come off the board first, but after that it's a crapshoot. Much like your standard pool, you gotta go big to take the pot - conservative won't get you anywhere. I suggest spreading your players through different teams (don't double up on Tar Heels or Jayhawks, etc.), even if it means taking lower seeds you think could make a run, because the majority of teams get eliminated early (32 teams get just one game), so you need to hit a team that makes the deep run.
Not my cup of tea, but another fun gambling method.
(3) Straight Lines
Spreads from Vegas pop on the board shortly after the brackets are released. What better time to lay some dough on the lines you like? You're going to be analyzing this shit all week, so you *should* be able to take some lines. A few I like in Round 1:
- Texas Tech (+2) over Boston College - I think the loss of Sean Williams was on delay for a bit. In their last 7, they've beaten the two teams sitting at home and lost to the 5 prepping for the NCAAs. I'll take Coach Knight on a weeks worth of prep as well.
- Michigan State (-2) over Marquette - Dominic James has been brutally cold from the field since February and I've been noticing. The Eagles have struggled down the stretch without him filling the hoop.
- Wisconsin (-13) over Texas A&M-Corpus Christi - This is the lowest of top seed lines and I think it's reflective of the Badgers recent struggles on offense since the Brian Butch injury. But one of the reason for the struggle scoring has been the opposition - Ohio State and Illinois - two of the better teams of the defensive end of the floor. I expect A&M to be a relief and the Badgers to win easily.
- Villanova (-1.5) over Kentucky - I feel like UK has been smoke and mirrors this season. A closer look at their conference schedule shows they really only beat the teams they should have. Nova's Scottie Reynolds has been carrying the load and coming on his own and I don't expect him to step down to second fiddle even if Mike Nardi comes back from injury.
Bonus NIT pick: Michigan's money line at Florida State (UM is 7 point dogs). You can't put a price on senior-NIT leadership and experience for the Wolverines. I'm only half-kidding.
(4) Superbowl Squares
A new one for me. Think your standard Super Bowl squares, but for all the NCAA games. Some genius in Chicago started this for this year and I jumped on it. My $100 entry has me looking at 2 (home - better seed) and 3 (road) for a combo. Root for it. First round winners pay $65 back and each following round pays an increasing amount, so you got 64 (63 games and halftime of the championship) winner dividing the $10,000 pot.
Sure, it's completely luck (especially considering basketball numbers are pretty goddamn random, unlike football), but can you really put a price on the following conversation...?
Me: Hey, you catch the score to the Kansas-Niagara game?
Random: Yeah, Kansas won by like 23.
Me: I didn't ask who won! I need to know the exact score, fucker!
Get your money in the books. You got 12 more hours.
-- RK
(1) Your standard office pool
This is the one everyone enters and the secretary who let her 8-year-old daughter pick her teams somehow seems to win. So how do you curb this? Go big. Listen, odds are your standard office pool has more than 20 people in it. If you chalk your bracket, you might as well be writing a blank check. Chalk never happens unless you are accidentally filling out the dykes bracket in between munching Pokey Chatman's box. Too many people take nearly-chalked brackets and the guy who takes the year's sleeper will leapfrog you. Identify your sleepers and go with it. Find the 1-seeds who will fall early and follow through. You're not winning anything big unless you're taking some calculated risks.
My biggest pet peeve of the office pools is the number of different formats. Does your pool reward lower seeded winners? Then be inclined to take more first round upsets (that's where you make the points). Do the points in your bracket double each round or are the points curbed back to the earlier rounds (my preference)? Better focus your efforts on the right rounds.
(2) Fantasy Madness
Think your typical fantasy league and think March. Pre-tournament you line up a player draft (selecting anywhere from 6-10 players per team) and add up each players' tournament points scored come April. One of my co-workers swears by this each year. Obviously, the leading scorers of the top seeds (guys like Oden, Hansborough, Wright and Horford) are going to come off the board first, but after that it's a crapshoot. Much like your standard pool, you gotta go big to take the pot - conservative won't get you anywhere. I suggest spreading your players through different teams (don't double up on Tar Heels or Jayhawks, etc.), even if it means taking lower seeds you think could make a run, because the majority of teams get eliminated early (32 teams get just one game), so you need to hit a team that makes the deep run.
Not my cup of tea, but another fun gambling method.
(3) Straight Lines
Spreads from Vegas pop on the board shortly after the brackets are released. What better time to lay some dough on the lines you like? You're going to be analyzing this shit all week, so you *should* be able to take some lines. A few I like in Round 1:- Texas Tech (+2) over Boston College - I think the loss of Sean Williams was on delay for a bit. In their last 7, they've beaten the two teams sitting at home and lost to the 5 prepping for the NCAAs. I'll take Coach Knight on a weeks worth of prep as well.
- Michigan State (-2) over Marquette - Dominic James has been brutally cold from the field since February and I've been noticing. The Eagles have struggled down the stretch without him filling the hoop.
- Wisconsin (-13) over Texas A&M-Corpus Christi - This is the lowest of top seed lines and I think it's reflective of the Badgers recent struggles on offense since the Brian Butch injury. But one of the reason for the struggle scoring has been the opposition - Ohio State and Illinois - two of the better teams of the defensive end of the floor. I expect A&M to be a relief and the Badgers to win easily.
- Villanova (-1.5) over Kentucky - I feel like UK has been smoke and mirrors this season. A closer look at their conference schedule shows they really only beat the teams they should have. Nova's Scottie Reynolds has been carrying the load and coming on his own and I don't expect him to step down to second fiddle even if Mike Nardi comes back from injury.
Bonus NIT pick: Michigan's money line at Florida State (UM is 7 point dogs). You can't put a price on senior-NIT leadership and experience for the Wolverines. I'm only half-kidding.
(4) Superbowl Squares
A new one for me. Think your standard Super Bowl squares, but for all the NCAA games. Some genius in Chicago started this for this year and I jumped on it. My $100 entry has me looking at 2 (home - better seed) and 3 (road) for a combo. Root for it. First round winners pay $65 back and each following round pays an increasing amount, so you got 64 (63 games and halftime of the championship) winner dividing the $10,000 pot.
Sure, it's completely luck (especially considering basketball numbers are pretty goddamn random, unlike football), but can you really put a price on the following conversation...?
Me: Hey, you catch the score to the Kansas-Niagara game?
Random: Yeah, Kansas won by like 23.
Me: I didn't ask who won! I need to know the exact score, fucker!
Get your money in the books. You got 12 more hours.
-- RK
Monday, March 12, 2007
Kasko's Not-So-Organized Thoughts
First off, although I hate agreeing with Billy Packer, I thought the selection committee did very well this year. Last year was an absolute train wreck that left me wondering how the hell they came up with it (Syracuse's 5-seed, Tennessee's 2-seed, some of the bubble team inclusions, etc.). It's funny though because that train wreck turned out to produce one of the best NCAA stories ever (George Mason), so in hindsight I say thank you. The bottom line is this - being on the committee is an unenviable task every year because no matter what you do, you'll be criticized somewhere. This year, I thought the seeds were pretty much on (nobody more than 2 seeds higher or lower than I would have thought) and I can see why they made some of the decisions they made at the bottom.
A big "Fuck you!" goes out to that bag of douche known as Joe Lunardi. Not only is it now painfully obvious your stupid ass gets tipped off (check the comments section of the recent Lunardi post to see where I noted just hours before the brackets were unveiled where Joe once again moved Arkansas from out of nowhere to in, not to mention his suspicious Stanford inclusion), but his smugness and arrogance was atrocious this year. Luckily, Joe's lone miss of the bracket was my Alma Mater, Illinois.
Anyways, I caught the douchebag on the Mike & Mike Show this morning (which was fantastic, by the way, with great interviews with Mike Brey of Notre Dame and Tom Izzo of Michigan State) bitching about Illinois' inclusion. Look at their profile! RPI is 29, 11-8 in conference, 33rd non-conference SOS and 24th overall. Alarming, I know, because this team is not that good, but you can't deny the numbers. Yes, they didn't have the great wins, but they didn't lose any bad games. Hey, Joe, if you're going to argue against them, at least get your facts right. The past two days, the douche has been claiming Illinois is 3-10 against the tournament field. Excuse me, Joe, look again. Illinois beat Indiana (twice), Michigan State and... Jackson State, Florida A&M, Belmont and Miami (OH). Seven wins. Now, I'm not saying these were "good" wins per say, but they played challenging competition in the pre-conference season. They were also had 8 top-100 wins and didn't lose outside of the top-100. If you want to make a point against them, at least get the facts right you stupid asshat.
As for the teams that are doing the crying today...
Syracuse - I'll echo JH's sentiments on the Orange. Play somebody! Do I think the Cuse should have made the field? Yes, I do. Do I feel bad they didn't? Absolutely not. In fact, it got a good chuckle out of me. This is a team that didn't leave the state of New York until January 7th. How ridiculous is that? They played on the road at Canisius (I don't even know where that is but Google assures me it's in New York) and down to MSG to lose to Oklahoma State. Even the quality teams they brought in beat them (Wichita State and Drexel). Their RPI was at 50 and they lost a few games they shouldn't have - at UConn and at St. John's. Tough shit, Jimmy Boeheim. Enjoy your NIT games at the Carrier Dome. You don't enjoy leaving home anyways.
Drexel - Here's where I disagree with JH completely. To me, Bruiser Flint should be sending Jim Larranaga flowers for people considering his team. This profile was all smoke and mirrors enhanced due to George Mason's run last year and the recent success of the mid-major. Listen, take the name "Drexel" off the top of the profile and replace it with, say, "Providence". Does this even get considered out of the Big East? They lost to Rider and William & Mary (they shut down William on the perimeter, but Mary was a beast in the low post that game*). Do I have sympathy for Drexel? Absolutely. Bruiser Flint should be standing on the soapbox bitching. I love what they did in the non-conference and it'd be a shame if it deterred them and others from doing it in the future. But this team lost some bad games and they were 1-5 against the teams above them in the CAA (VCU, Old Dominion and Hofstra). They had their chances. I don't think their snub was a crime against mid-majors the way it was last year to Missouri State and their RPI of 20.
Kansas State - Listen, Huggins, I understand your drunk ass bitching for your team but call up Boeheim and play somebody. You played the 227th best non-conference schedule this year. Congrats. You won at Texas, beat Oklahoma at home and beat Texas Tech on a neutral court. But you play in the Big XII North, so you used that crutch to 10 hollow conference victories. Go out and beat Kansas or something, then file a complaint.
Florida State - I'm not touching this one because I am assuming there will be a whole post dedicated to it. Let me say this - I think it's a shame this team isn't getting much snub talk. This is a good profile and their 5-game skid game without Toney Douglas and now he's back. If you want to take out a Stanford or an Arkansas (which, by all means, go ahead), I'd throw FSU at the top of the list to replace them.
Now let's talk about the dumbest decision made of the week, courtesy of NBC. One-hour of The Office on Thursday competing against the NCAA games. Brilliant guys, just brilliant. Who the fuck made that call? I'd wager that 1/3 of The Office viewership would be "sports fans" and now a good chunk of them won't be watching that special. I, for certain, will be placing that one in the DVR bin. This isn't Grey's Anatomy here, a good chunk of your viewers still have their testicles attached. Now, if you were to bitch that Grey's and the games overlap, well, let's just say Tim Hardaway does not approve of your bitching. Terrible decision by NBC though. Just atrocious.
More to come later, I hope.
-- RK
(* - Joke courtesy of Deadspin comments section. It was just too good to resist.)
Saturday, March 10, 2007
Tourney Questions- March 10, 2007
| East (East Rutherford) | South (San Antonio) | Midwest (St. Louis) | West (San Jose) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | North Carolina | Kansas | Florida | UCLA |
| 2 | Pittsburgh | Wisconsin | Ohio State | Georgetown |
| 3 | Memphis | Washington State | Texas A&M | Southern Illinois |
| 4 | Oregon | Virginia Tech | Louisville | Texas |
in America get more than two bids this year?(posted by JH)
Friday, March 9, 2007
The Unpredictables
Every year there's a team that's wildly inconsistent all year and somehow manages to get its shit together come March and makes a run. Or the squad that heads into the Big Dance streaking and craps out unexpectedly the first weekend. These are the teams that make or break your bracket and bust your ass every year. To me, they're the hardest to predict. With that, I'll take a journey across the nation breaking down these candidates from each of the power conferences...
Atlantic Coast - Maryland
You could almost see most peoples eyes lighting up when talking about this team. The Terps came into the ACCs absolutely smoking, winners of 7 straight including doubling down on the Dookies and taking out the Tar Heels, before crapping the bed last night against Miami. There was almost a Fight Club-esque feel to this team in that everyone seems to like them, but everyone wanted them to stay a secret. Mission accomplished for me. I still like Maryland to do some major damage in the NCAAs and will be thrilled to see the bandwagon emptying after it crashed in Tampa.
Big East - Marquette
Marquette came into February as a big player at the top of the Big East. They have been nationally ranked all season and have been picked to go to the Final Four by multiple experts. But the Golden Eagles have struggled mightily as of late, going just 3-5 in their last 8. One of the reasons has been the cold shooting of star guard Dominic James, who is shooting a miserable 27.6% from the field since February while taking a good chunk of shots (12.7 per game over that stretch). He'll need to turn things around if Marquette wants to see past the first weekend.
Southeastern - Florida
This is more of a lifetime acheivement award because I've been dicked over by Billy Donovan too many times in March. Since the run to the title game as a 5-seed in 2000, the Gators had seen numerous disappointing first-weekend knock outs before winning the title last season. They've returned the nucleus of last year's squad and came into the season as favorites to repeat, but have fallen upon hard times as of late, losing to the likes of Vanderbuilt and LSU on the road. The Gators this season represent what the NCAAs have become - a tournament of unpredictability and parity. Can you say with confidence that any of the 1 or 2 seeds will make the trip to Atlanta? Do any of these teams really separate themselves from the rest of the pack?
Big Ten - Wisconsin
Is there a top-10 team people were talking about less as a contender to win the title? It seems people are discounting the Badgers as being one of the nation's elite. Many seemed to be talking of a trip to the Final Four, but I haven't heard much talk of winning it all. The recent injury (and uncertainty over the severity of the injury) to center Brian Butch only further clouds the picture. I forsee Wisconsin being a team a lot of people have circled for that popular early-round exit next week, but I like the make-up of the Badgers. They play very solid defense, have the star go-to scorer in the crunch time, have a strong senior point guard and will likely be playing in a favorable venue (Chicago) the first weekend - all things that tend to correlate positively with NCAA success. I expect the nation to be adding a chip to their shoulder soon, as well.
Big XII - Kansas
I'd like to stray away from the top-seeds in this discussion, but this one is inevitable. History is on their side as well, with recent first-round stumbles against the highly-underdogged Bucknell and Bradley teams of the past two tournaments. How good are the Jayhawks? It's a question I've been wondering for a while now. They've been absolutely killing teams recently, but it's been against their weak Big XII North competition. What's been concerning is that in their contests against the rest of the cream of the conference they've lost to Texas A&M (at home), lost to Texas Tech (on the road) and narrowly beat Texas (at home) behind a furious second-half rally. This team has world's of potential and wouldn't surprise me in the least if they cut down the nets in Atlanta, but some of their losses have been frightening.
Pacific-10 - Arizona
The computers absolutely love this team due to their strength of schedule, but the bottom line is Arizona has been a .500 team since the new year. One thing that's interesting is that the Cats took their last 5 road games in conference (very impressive), which isn't pointed out much due to the home sweep it took at the hands of the So. Cal schools. It's another team loaded with talented McD's All-Americans that can kill you in a multitude of ways of the offensive end of the floor. They tend to stuggle defensively, but will be a glam pick next week because of their name recognition and their conference affiliation and the perceived strength of that conference.
-- RK
Guess Who's Not Coming to Dinner?
Last season, George Mason shocked the world by advancing to the Final Four. In the opinion of this college basketball fan and Mason alumnus, this was the greatest sporting event since Jackie Robinson broke the color barrier, and a close third all-time to Jesse Owens giving Adolph Hitler the finger in the 1936 Olympics. Non-power conference schools have been there before, but they also had players like Larry Bird, Bill Russell, and Oscar Robertson. Something tells me that Lamar Butler, Tony Skinn and Jai Lewis will not be making any all-time top 50 lists outside of the DC area.
A tad hyperbolic? Sure; but the fact of the matter remains is that there will not be another Cinderella who catches America by surprise en route to the national semifinals for a very long time. This season, there is no doubt that coaches of the Tom Izzo-Roy Williams-Jim Calhoun caliber are going to spend an extra bit of time watching game film of plucky upstarts who pull off a round one upset. They're also going to school their players on their opponent's conference affiliation, nickname, colors, etc. On the Saturday preceding the regional final, Rashard Anderson admitted to a reporter that he did not even know what conference their opponent came from. Think that didn't add for any extra motivation? Especially in a glorified home game for the underdogs?
Florida proved this last season. Unlike the three coaches before (Mark Turgeon excluded, as Wichita State did have a game plan; they just couldn't make a basket), Billy Donovan had a game plan to beat the Patriots, and when his better athletes executed, the difference between the SEC and the CAA was evident. This may not happen in round one in the 1-16, 2-15, 3-14, and 4-13 games, but every other team should be wary of those lower seeds coming out of the unknown conferences.
(posted by JH)
A tad hyperbolic? Sure; but the fact of the matter remains is that there will not be another Cinderella who catches America by surprise en route to the national semifinals for a very long time. This season, there is no doubt that coaches of the Tom Izzo-Roy Williams-Jim Calhoun caliber are going to spend an extra bit of time watching game film of plucky upstarts who pull off a round one upset. They're also going to school their players on their opponent's conference affiliation, nickname, colors, etc. On the Saturday preceding the regional final, Rashard Anderson admitted to a reporter that he did not even know what conference their opponent came from. Think that didn't add for any extra motivation? Especially in a glorified home game for the underdogs?
Florida proved this last season. Unlike the three coaches before (Mark Turgeon excluded, as Wichita State did have a game plan; they just couldn't make a basket), Billy Donovan had a game plan to beat the Patriots, and when his better athletes executed, the difference between the SEC and the CAA was evident. This may not happen in round one in the 1-16, 2-15, 3-14, and 4-13 games, but every other team should be wary of those lower seeds coming out of the unknown conferences.
(posted by JH)
Wednesday, March 7, 2007
Jump In The Pool
This wouldn't be a college basketball blog if we didn't have a goddamn pool for the tourney, so it's all set up.
I used Poolhost.com, a site I used last year and loved due to the setup and the flexibility over setting (Fuck you ESPN and your built-in 1-2-4-8-16-32 scoring system!). Anyways, the rules are up to you... so let us know in the replies if you'd like us to change them up at all. The current settings are 1-2-4-6-8-12 scoring, no underdog or lower seed bonuses and no multiple brackets (you know how I feel about this...). Leave one in the replies if you like your pool a different way.
Anyways, come on over and join us for March and feel free to invite your friends.
Pool Name: One Shining Moment
Pool Login Name: osm
Pool Password: osm
-- RK
I used Poolhost.com, a site I used last year and loved due to the setup and the flexibility over setting (Fuck you ESPN and your built-in 1-2-4-8-16-32 scoring system!). Anyways, the rules are up to you... so let us know in the replies if you'd like us to change them up at all. The current settings are 1-2-4-6-8-12 scoring, no underdog or lower seed bonuses and no multiple brackets (you know how I feel about this...). Leave one in the replies if you like your pool a different way.
Anyways, come on over and join us for March and feel free to invite your friends.
Pool Name: One Shining Moment
Pool Login Name: osm
Pool Password: osm
-- RK
Monday, March 5, 2007
In, Out, or In Between: ACC and Big East
ACC (locks: North Carolina, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Maryland, Duke)
Clemson
JH: I think that the Tigers are out as of right now. Looking at their non-conference schedule, it's hard to imagine a team with just one quality win in conference and wasn't tested before conference play should snag one of the coveted at-large spots. With that said, this team is at the very top of the bubble, due to knocking off Old Dominion and Appalachian State.
RK: Who'd have thought 17-0 would have you on the wrong side of the bubble? They stopped the tailspin this week and put themselves back in the discussion, but it's still a 4-9 record in their last 13 coupled with a relatively weak non-conference slate that has the Tigers needing an ACC run. I think they need wins over Florida State (elimination game) and North Carolina to get in, otherwise it's easy for the committee to dismiss them.
Georgia Tech
JH: In. They split the season series with Clemson, won at Memphis and beat UNC at home. They are 7-3 in their last ten heading into the ACC tournament, and will probably need to win two games to solidify their chances.
RK: Not only do I think this team is now a lock as long as they avoid the bad loss to Wake Forest, I think this is a serious contender for a sleeper in the NCAAs. The good wins are there for the Jackets, as is a .500 conference record. I think they just need one more to move to a lock.
Big East (locks: Georgetown, Pitt, Louisville, Notre Dame, Marquette)
Syracuse, West Virginia/Providence, DePaul/Villanova
JH: Essentially, the losers of the first round game should start marketing their first round NIT home game. All of these teams have similar profiles, with West Virginia and DePaul having the most glamourous out of conference wins (UCLA and Kansas, respectively). With a first-round win, I would put WVU and DePaul in the tournament with no questions asked, Villanova would be on a firmer bubble, whereas Providence would have to probably win two games to supplement their weak profile.
RK: With the victory this weekend, I'd actually throw Nova closer to the lock field and keep the Cuse on the bubble. Why? Syracuse had a weak in-conference schedule (something the committee says it looks at...) and played nobody (as usual) before the Big East. They even lost a few times in the Dome in pre-conference (Wichita State and Drexel) and the computer numbers aren't all there, with an RPI of 50 and SOS at 49. I'm not as quick with DePaul and think they need at least a second victory over G'Town to be seriously discussed. Yes, they beat Kansas, but that gets offset with the losses to Northwestern and UAB. Yuck.
Clemson
JH: I think that the Tigers are out as of right now. Looking at their non-conference schedule, it's hard to imagine a team with just one quality win in conference and wasn't tested before conference play should snag one of the coveted at-large spots. With that said, this team is at the very top of the bubble, due to knocking off Old Dominion and Appalachian State.
RK: Who'd have thought 17-0 would have you on the wrong side of the bubble? They stopped the tailspin this week and put themselves back in the discussion, but it's still a 4-9 record in their last 13 coupled with a relatively weak non-conference slate that has the Tigers needing an ACC run. I think they need wins over Florida State (elimination game) and North Carolina to get in, otherwise it's easy for the committee to dismiss them.
Georgia Tech
JH: In. They split the season series with Clemson, won at Memphis and beat UNC at home. They are 7-3 in their last ten heading into the ACC tournament, and will probably need to win two games to solidify their chances.
RK: Not only do I think this team is now a lock as long as they avoid the bad loss to Wake Forest, I think this is a serious contender for a sleeper in the NCAAs. The good wins are there for the Jackets, as is a .500 conference record. I think they just need one more to move to a lock.
Big East (locks: Georgetown, Pitt, Louisville, Notre Dame, Marquette)
Syracuse, West Virginia/Providence, DePaul/Villanova
JH: Essentially, the losers of the first round game should start marketing their first round NIT home game. All of these teams have similar profiles, with West Virginia and DePaul having the most glamourous out of conference wins (UCLA and Kansas, respectively). With a first-round win, I would put WVU and DePaul in the tournament with no questions asked, Villanova would be on a firmer bubble, whereas Providence would have to probably win two games to supplement their weak profile.
RK: With the victory this weekend, I'd actually throw Nova closer to the lock field and keep the Cuse on the bubble. Why? Syracuse had a weak in-conference schedule (something the committee says it looks at...) and played nobody (as usual) before the Big East. They even lost a few times in the Dome in pre-conference (Wichita State and Drexel) and the computer numbers aren't all there, with an RPI of 50 and SOS at 49. I'm not as quick with DePaul and think they need at least a second victory over G'Town to be seriously discussed. Yes, they beat Kansas, but that gets offset with the losses to Northwestern and UAB. Yuck.
Saturday, March 3, 2007
Bubble File: Appalachian Sate
Here is the first of a periodic breakdown of teams sweating out their invitation to the Big Dance
Appalachian State
What to Like: Victories over Virginia, Virginia Commonwealth and Vanderbilt show that the Mountaineers are as good as other teams gunning for an at-large berth in the NCAA tournament.
What Not to Like: ASU was thumped by 30 at Clemson, and by 32 in Blacksburg at the hands of Virginia Tech.
What Will Help Them: Three things-- Vanderbilt's continued success, Virginia Tech advancing deep into the ACC tournament, and Winthrop winning the Big South. With the Eagles winning their tournament, that saves one an at-large for a hopeful.
Vitals: 61 RPI, 15-3 in conference, 77 S-Curve, 8-2 in their last ten games, road win at Wichita State in the Bracket Busters.
Verdict: NIT. By not advancing to the finals of their conference, consider them as good as gone from the Big Dance. Quality wins aside, ASU needed to truly take advantage of their conference tournament to show America and the committee what they were made of. Unfortunately, they're made of hosting a first round game in the NIT, and then travelling to a power conference foe for the second round.
(posted by JH)
Appalachian State
What to Like: Victories over Virginia, Virginia Commonwealth and Vanderbilt show that the Mountaineers are as good as other teams gunning for an at-large berth in the NCAA tournament.
What Not to Like: ASU was thumped by 30 at Clemson, and by 32 in Blacksburg at the hands of Virginia Tech.
What Will Help Them: Three things-- Vanderbilt's continued success, Virginia Tech advancing deep into the ACC tournament, and Winthrop winning the Big South. With the Eagles winning their tournament, that saves one an at-large for a hopeful.
Vitals: 61 RPI, 15-3 in conference, 77 S-Curve, 8-2 in their last ten games, road win at Wichita State in the Bracket Busters.
Verdict: NIT. By not advancing to the finals of their conference, consider them as good as gone from the Big Dance. Quality wins aside, ASU needed to truly take advantage of their conference tournament to show America and the committee what they were made of. Unfortunately, they're made of hosting a first round game in the NIT, and then travelling to a power conference foe for the second round.
(posted by JH)
Friday, March 2, 2007
The Davids The Nation Already Knows
Forget who's in and who's out for a minute. The hardest job the NCAA Selection committee has to do is ranking and seeding its included teams. More specifically, it's an absolute beast of a job to determine the postseason fate of the top mid-major (or should I say non-power conference?) teams. It's a job that everyone seems to have a wide range of opinions on, bringing enormous amounts of heat regardless of which way the committee leans. I'm looking at you, Billy Packer. Take the 1-seed St. Joe's was given in 2004 or the fluctuation in seeding Gonzaga has seen over recent years and placing these teams in the field is no easy task.
With that, I'm here to help the committee sort through some of this field. Here's a look at a handful of "other" schools that are comfortably in the tournament field even without an automatic invite.
Memphis
The resume: 26-3, 18 game win streak, RPI of 7 with SOS at 71. Undefeated in conference play, but just 1-3 against the RPI top-50 (5-3 against the top-100 however).
The verdict: I'd throw them a 4-seed, which would probably put me on the low end of the spectrum. Their winning streak dates back to before Christmas, but they've played all of 3 top-100 games in that time period. Conference-USA is a joke this year, with only Houston (at 97) joining the Tigers in the top-100 of the RPI. I know the computer numbers look nice, but I'm not really buying into it. Win out with others stumbling and I would consider a 3, but those putting them on the 2-seed line are out of their minds.
Southern Illinois
The resume: 24-5, 11 game win streak, RPI of 5 with SOS at 39. Finished MVC play at 15-3 as is 7-2 versus the RPI top-50 (and 12-4 against the top 100).
The verdict: Hovering right on the 2/3 line. Stack this profile next to Memphis' and tell me you want the Tigers seeded ahead of them. You can't. Perhaps I'm standing atop my Missouri Valley soapbox, but the conference is extremely deep and loaded at the bottom. There were zero easy wins in this league. The Salukis would benefit immensely from doubling down on Missouri Valley titles, but their shot at a 2-seed will most likely be the byproduct of teams ahead of them slipping up rather than their accomplishments leap-frogging the others.
Nevada
The resume: 25-3 with a 13-2 mark in the WAC, RPI of 22 with SOS at 125. The telling stat is their 0-1 record against the top-50, but they are 10-3 against the top-100. Looking at the schedule, they haven't beaten anyone in the top-70 currently.
The verdict: Their wins over Cal, Northern Iowa, Santa Clara and Gonzaga don't hold much weight anymore as all of those teams outside the WCC tourney winner don't figure to be dancing. With the loss last night to Utah State, Nevada will need to beat New Mexico State at home on Saturday to salvage even a split against both of their top WAC competition. It's a resume that's more troubling upon further inspection and breakdown and because of that, I'd award Nevada a 7-seed, if the tourney started today.
Winthrop
The resume: 23-4 after an undefeated (14-0) Big South campaign. The RPI sits at 69 with a pretty terrible SOS at 256. Winthrop is just 2-4 against the top-50 with another win against the 50-100 region and two over 100-200.
The verdict: I'd put the Eagles in the 8/9 game if they win the Big South championship game this weekend and still in the tourney (with absolutely no second thoughts) should they slip up. And that's with some restraint. I truly believe this is the giant killer in this years' field and hwo good this team is appears hidden under some weaker computer numbers. It's the conference numbers that hurt the profile, ranked as the 29th best conference in America. But the Eagles have some very nice wins against fellow mid-major powers Missouri State and Old Dominion and an ever-improving road victory at Mississippi State. I know the committee doesn't look at margin of victory, but their four losses came at the hands of UNC (by 7 in Greensboro), at Maryland (by 11), at Wisconsin (by 3 in OT) and at Texas A&M (by 20). There's not a single blemish on the schedule outside of those. This team is going to be an absolutely scary draw in a few weeks.
-- RK
With that, I'm here to help the committee sort through some of this field. Here's a look at a handful of "other" schools that are comfortably in the tournament field even without an automatic invite.
Memphis
The resume: 26-3, 18 game win streak, RPI of 7 with SOS at 71. Undefeated in conference play, but just 1-3 against the RPI top-50 (5-3 against the top-100 however).
The verdict: I'd throw them a 4-seed, which would probably put me on the low end of the spectrum. Their winning streak dates back to before Christmas, but they've played all of 3 top-100 games in that time period. Conference-USA is a joke this year, with only Houston (at 97) joining the Tigers in the top-100 of the RPI. I know the computer numbers look nice, but I'm not really buying into it. Win out with others stumbling and I would consider a 3, but those putting them on the 2-seed line are out of their minds.
Southern Illinois
The resume: 24-5, 11 game win streak, RPI of 5 with SOS at 39. Finished MVC play at 15-3 as is 7-2 versus the RPI top-50 (and 12-4 against the top 100).
The verdict: Hovering right on the 2/3 line. Stack this profile next to Memphis' and tell me you want the Tigers seeded ahead of them. You can't. Perhaps I'm standing atop my Missouri Valley soapbox, but the conference is extremely deep and loaded at the bottom. There were zero easy wins in this league. The Salukis would benefit immensely from doubling down on Missouri Valley titles, but their shot at a 2-seed will most likely be the byproduct of teams ahead of them slipping up rather than their accomplishments leap-frogging the others.
Nevada
The resume: 25-3 with a 13-2 mark in the WAC, RPI of 22 with SOS at 125. The telling stat is their 0-1 record against the top-50, but they are 10-3 against the top-100. Looking at the schedule, they haven't beaten anyone in the top-70 currently.
The verdict: Their wins over Cal, Northern Iowa, Santa Clara and Gonzaga don't hold much weight anymore as all of those teams outside the WCC tourney winner don't figure to be dancing. With the loss last night to Utah State, Nevada will need to beat New Mexico State at home on Saturday to salvage even a split against both of their top WAC competition. It's a resume that's more troubling upon further inspection and breakdown and because of that, I'd award Nevada a 7-seed, if the tourney started today.
Winthrop
The resume: 23-4 after an undefeated (14-0) Big South campaign. The RPI sits at 69 with a pretty terrible SOS at 256. Winthrop is just 2-4 against the top-50 with another win against the 50-100 region and two over 100-200.
The verdict: I'd put the Eagles in the 8/9 game if they win the Big South championship game this weekend and still in the tourney (with absolutely no second thoughts) should they slip up. And that's with some restraint. I truly believe this is the giant killer in this years' field and hwo good this team is appears hidden under some weaker computer numbers. It's the conference numbers that hurt the profile, ranked as the 29th best conference in America. But the Eagles have some very nice wins against fellow mid-major powers Missouri State and Old Dominion and an ever-improving road victory at Mississippi State. I know the committee doesn't look at margin of victory, but their four losses came at the hands of UNC (by 7 in Greensboro), at Maryland (by 11), at Wisconsin (by 3 in OT) and at Texas A&M (by 20). There's not a single blemish on the schedule outside of those. This team is going to be an absolutely scary draw in a few weeks.
-- RK
Thursday, March 1, 2007
Tourney File: Kansas
Here is the fifth of a periodic breakdown of teams expected to be in the NCAA Tournament
Kansas
It's time to start hammering out some of the top seeds and favorites in this year's NCAA draw and I'll start with the Jayhawks.
What to Like: Sheer talent. This is a team loaded with 5-star recruits that have NBA scouts salivating over their pro potential. Kansas has 5 players located in the top 60 of Chad Ford's Top 100 NBA Prospects on ESPN.com (Julian Wright, Darrell Arthur, Brandon Rush, Mario Chalmers and Sherron Collins) and two of them come off the bench of this team. The Jayhawks are stacked and deep and can beat you in multiple ways.
What Will Keep Them From Winning: Free throws and inexperience. Kansas struggles at 240th in the nation in free throw percentage. Although none of their key players are horrific, only Chalmers and Collins top the 70%-clip and neither of those two is money in the bank at the line. While many think this might be the best team in the nation right now, this is still a young group of kids that lost to two teams who may not even see the NCAAs (DePaul and Oral Roberts), raising questions of inexperience and inconsistency.
What We Don't Know: Will Kansas be ready to step up to the big boys come March? I'm sorry, I'm just not sold yet on Kansas being a legitimate title contender and that all comes down to their schedule. Yes, they are absolutely running teams out of the gym lately, but who have they beaten in this calendar year? Playing in the Big XII North, KU gets its share of cupcakes and has thus far lost its games against the top of the South division (@ Texas Tech, vs. Texas A&M; the Jayhawks do host Texas on Saturday). It's best wins in 2007? A 2-point win at Oklahoma and a 9-point win at Kansas State. Doesn't tell me much. Plus, Bill Self has a monkey on his back after back-to-back upset exits in the NCAA first-round.
X-Factor: Sherron Collins. The star freshman point guard out of Chicago has started to put his name into the realm of other great freshman points across the nation recently. He's gone from being a virtual non-factor in some of KU's bigger non-conference games (scoreless in 7 minutes at Florida and in 9 minutes against Boston College) to stealing some of starting guard Russell Robinson's court time in Big XII play. He's hit double-digits in 12 of their 15 conference games and has provided a real spark off the Kansas bench, giving the Jayhawks exceptional depth in the backcourt.
Who Do They Want to Play?: North Carolina, Maryland, Marquette. The more you increase the number of possessions in a game, the more likely it is that the averages will play out and a predicted outcome occurs. Kansas hasn't been bothered by up-tempo play this year in games against Missouri, Oklahoma State and USC. They play solidly each possession on both sides of the ball and have an enormous amount of talent to overmatch many of their opponents.
Who Don't They Want to Play?: Georgetown, Washington State, Southern Illinois, Air Force. In their 4 losses, the pace of play has been 66 possessions per game. Out of their nine slowest-paced games, Kansas dropped 3 of them. Compare that to just a shade under 70 in their 26 wins and you have yourself a way to beat Kansas. Although this team excels on the defensive floor, opponents will want to keep the game within reach and hope the inexperience and free throw shooting woes can haunt the Jayhawks down the stretch of a tight ballgame.
Prediction: The Jayhawks are probably looking at a two seed this year, but could slip up or down a seed line based on the results of their matchup with Texas on Saturday and their play in the Big XII Tournament. A lot of people might see another early exit, given their recent history and Bill Self's uninspiring track record, but I don't see it that way. I can't see this team stumbling in the opening weekend and have to recognize them as a legitimate favorite to make the Final Four. They've been smoking the competition lately, but I will be keeping a close eye on how they end the year against quality, tournament-worthy opponents. I really think they need another crack at the Aggies in the conference tournament season to get set for March.
-- RK
Tourney File: Maryland
Here is the fourth of a periodic breakdown of teams expected to be in the NCAA Tournament
Maryland
What to Like: Grevias Vasquez and Eric Hayes. Neither freshman point guard is ready to carry the load by themselves at this point. They have complimentary playing styles with Vasquez the scoring, flashy type and Hayes serving in the mold of Steve Blake. Next year, I would not be surprised to see Maryland go back to the two point guard styled offense it ran during Steve Blake and Drew Nicholas' senior years, as they have a core of those two, Bambale Osby (more on him in a second) and James Gist.
What to Be Pleasantly Surprised By: Mike Jones finally playing like an All-American. Highly rated out of high school, Jones has been nothing but disappointment, as he had to compete with John Gilchrist and Nik Caner-Medley for touches in the past. This year, however, he seems rejuvenated with two real point guards getting quality minutes. Jones single-handedly crippled North Carolina last weekend, but will be overlooked when the ACC votes on it's awards this season.
What Will Keep Them From Winning: Maryland does not have a consistent outside shooter who they can truly rely on to keep teams from playing zone defense against them. Eric Hayes is their best shooter by percentage, but is usually a non-factor when it comes to scoring. D.J. Strawberry is a streak shooter who can knock down a few, but they lack a Juan Dixon type of shooter to stretch the opposition.
What We Don't Know: Maryland is on a torrid winning streak, and one has to wonder if they can keep it up for an extended period of time.
X-Factor: Bambale Osby, a transfer who sat last season out. Instead of relying on Will Bowers (who can be best described as a slower and less offensively skilled Aaron Gray), Gary Williams has an energy guy who can rebound, defend, and contribute with an occasional bucket or two. Osby was huge in last night's win against the Blue Devils, snaring down nine rebounds and blocking a shot in just thirteen minutes.
Who Do They Want to Play: Wisconsin, Air Force, and Butler. The Falcons and the Bulldogs are two teams that are not athletic enough to cover the Terps on the perimeter, and would have a tough time with their defense on the other end. Maryland has a premier defensive stopper in D.J. Strawberry, making Alando Tucker work as hard as he did against Ohio State to get his shots off.
Who Don't They Want to Play: Florida and Texas A&M would give Maryland fits because of their superior point guard play. Neither Vasquez or Hayes are ready to take on players of the caliber of Taurean Green and Acie Law in the Big Dance. Both players are too accomplished to be upstaged by guys who were wrapping up their high school careers a year ago.
Prediction: Fifth to seventh seed. At this point in the season, I believe Maryland is the third best team in the ACC behind probably #1 seed UNC and probable fifth seed Virginia Tech. Depending on how much the committee weighs the past three weeks, it could put the Terps as a low five, or a high six or seven.
Maryland
What to Like: Grevias Vasquez and Eric Hayes. Neither freshman point guard is ready to carry the load by themselves at this point. They have complimentary playing styles with Vasquez the scoring, flashy type and Hayes serving in the mold of Steve Blake. Next year, I would not be surprised to see Maryland go back to the two point guard styled offense it ran during Steve Blake and Drew Nicholas' senior years, as they have a core of those two, Bambale Osby (more on him in a second) and James Gist.
What to Be Pleasantly Surprised By: Mike Jones finally playing like an All-American. Highly rated out of high school, Jones has been nothing but disappointment, as he had to compete with John Gilchrist and Nik Caner-Medley for touches in the past. This year, however, he seems rejuvenated with two real point guards getting quality minutes. Jones single-handedly crippled North Carolina last weekend, but will be overlooked when the ACC votes on it's awards this season.
What Will Keep Them From Winning: Maryland does not have a consistent outside shooter who they can truly rely on to keep teams from playing zone defense against them. Eric Hayes is their best shooter by percentage, but is usually a non-factor when it comes to scoring. D.J. Strawberry is a streak shooter who can knock down a few, but they lack a Juan Dixon type of shooter to stretch the opposition.
What We Don't Know: Maryland is on a torrid winning streak, and one has to wonder if they can keep it up for an extended period of time.
X-Factor: Bambale Osby, a transfer who sat last season out. Instead of relying on Will Bowers (who can be best described as a slower and less offensively skilled Aaron Gray), Gary Williams has an energy guy who can rebound, defend, and contribute with an occasional bucket or two. Osby was huge in last night's win against the Blue Devils, snaring down nine rebounds and blocking a shot in just thirteen minutes.
Who Do They Want to Play: Wisconsin, Air Force, and Butler. The Falcons and the Bulldogs are two teams that are not athletic enough to cover the Terps on the perimeter, and would have a tough time with their defense on the other end. Maryland has a premier defensive stopper in D.J. Strawberry, making Alando Tucker work as hard as he did against Ohio State to get his shots off.
Who Don't They Want to Play: Florida and Texas A&M would give Maryland fits because of their superior point guard play. Neither Vasquez or Hayes are ready to take on players of the caliber of Taurean Green and Acie Law in the Big Dance. Both players are too accomplished to be upstaged by guys who were wrapping up their high school careers a year ago.
Prediction: Fifth to seventh seed. At this point in the season, I believe Maryland is the third best team in the ACC behind probably #1 seed UNC and probable fifth seed Virginia Tech. Depending on how much the committee weighs the past three weeks, it could put the Terps as a low five, or a high six or seven.
Friday, February 23, 2007
"Don't Be That Guy..."
Made popular by the 90s cult hit PCU, I'll flip the object of ridicule in the header from music (that guy wearing the shirt of the band you're going to see) to college basketball.Don't be that guy who fills out multiple NCAA Tournament brackets.
Why? You look like a douche, plain and simple. I can't tell you how many times I've chuckled over the jackass at the bar during the tournament, filing through his 3 or 4 brackets to check which outcome of the indecisive 8/9 matchup between two State College U.'s helps out more of his brackets. To me, this strategy is indefensible.
In my opinion, either way you spin it off, you're an idiot. Either you don't know your shit and you are essentially handing over more money in the slim chance one of your brackets somehow goes through or you're just too damn indecisive. You can tell me it's like playing the stock market - you are diversifying your risk and have your possible sleepers spread between multiple brackets. True. With diversification comes less risk, but also less chance of a top return. I figure -- what -- the top five percent of pools return money? You might as well take your chances with your picks. If you're wrong, you're wrong. But it always draws a laugh from me when Three Bracket Timmy hits his championship game prediction, only to fall short because he didn't do it in the same bracket as the one he had with the good first weekend projection.
Most importantly, however, you're compromising your integrity as a sports fan. In the sports world, you are taught to have an argument and not back down from it, no matter how wrong or stupid (hell, take a look at Skip Bayless). Are you going to be wrong a good chunk of time? Sure, you are. I've had some horrendous brackets to go along with some of my bests and I'd be the first to tell you tales of my downfalls (In eighth grade I took South Carolina to win it all and they, of course, got bounced by Coppin State in round one... ouch!). Such is life. But there's a pride issue in correctly placed that mid-major sleeper into the Sweet-16 or predicting the high-seeded powerhouse to bow out in the first weekend on all one of your brackets.
So when Bob from accounting takes home your office pool with bracket number four of five and constantly reminds you by the water cooler every morning of his victory, remember to ask him how many loser brackets he placed in the pool alongside it.
Actually, scratch all this. Turn in however many brackets you want, jackass. You're just fluffing up my winnings.
-- RK
Wednesday, February 21, 2007
Tourney File: Michigan State
Here is the third of a periodic breakdown of teams expected to be in the NCAA Tournament
Michigan State
Book it. With a huge resume win at home over top-ranked Wisconsin, the Spartans punched their dance ticket last night.
What to Like: Defense. Over the next month, you will hear me harp and harp that I believe great team defense is the biggest indicator of tournament success. This Michigan State squad can absolutely 'D' up. They lead the Big Ten in points allowed per game, which is partially due to their extremely slow pace of play. But their points per possession and effective field goal percentage against stats are stellar as well. Perhaps most impressively is how consistent their 'D' has been (see BigTenWonk link for full analysis -- great site). They've been there game in and game out.
What Will Keep Them From Winning: Turnovers. It's been ugly in East Lansing in terms of holding onto the ball. Prior to Monday's game, State was turning the ball over at a rate of 26% of their offensive possessions. It's been the Achilles heel of an otherwise efficient offense.
X-Factor: Tom Izzo. How many other teams can match up with the tournament experience and success of the Spartans' coach? Izzo has led State to four Final Fours ('99, '00, '01, '05) in the past decade and won the 2000 NCAA title. It seems like every March we are talking about Izzo having his team peaking at the right time.
Who Do They Want to Play?: UCLA, Nevada or Duke. This is your typical Izzo coached team, keyed around defense and rebounding. Michigan State has slowed it down with the best of them, averaging just 62.5 possessions per game this season (308th in D-1). They are very efficient and crash the boards proficiently and should match up well against any of these teams that will play at their pace and allow them to run their sets.
Michigan State
Book it. With a huge resume win at home over top-ranked Wisconsin, the Spartans punched their dance ticket last night.
What to Like: Defense. Over the next month, you will hear me harp and harp that I believe great team defense is the biggest indicator of tournament success. This Michigan State squad can absolutely 'D' up. They lead the Big Ten in points allowed per game, which is partially due to their extremely slow pace of play. But their points per possession and effective field goal percentage against stats are stellar as well. Perhaps most impressively is how consistent their 'D' has been (see BigTenWonk link for full analysis -- great site). They've been there game in and game out.
What to be Pleasantly Surprised By: Drew Neitzel. The junior point guard and leader of the Spartans has absolutely dominated in some big games. He dropped in 28 on 10-17 shooting (6-11 on 3's) last night against the Badgers and had 21 in the second half of a valiant comeback that fell short at Ohio State. A natural scoring point in high school, Neitzel took a passive offensive role behind the likes of Maurice Ager, Shannon Brown and Paul Davis in his first two years before breaking out on the scene this season.
What Will Keep Them From Winning: Turnovers. It's been ugly in East Lansing in terms of holding onto the ball. Prior to Monday's game, State was turning the ball over at a rate of 26% of their offensive possessions. It's been the Achilles heel of an otherwise efficient offense.
What We Don't Know: If the Spartans can get a consistent second scoring option. It's been Neitzel offensively with a slew of Spartans chipping in some baskets. Michigan State will need either freshman Raymar Morgan or some their bigs to step up to take some of the scoring load off Neitzel's back. Morgan will be the next big stud in East Lansing, but recently struggled through the Spartans 4 game losing streak, averaging just 9 points per game including a season low 2-point effort in a home loss to Ohio State.
X-Factor: Tom Izzo. How many other teams can match up with the tournament experience and success of the Spartans' coach? Izzo has led State to four Final Fours ('99, '00, '01, '05) in the past decade and won the 2000 NCAA title. It seems like every March we are talking about Izzo having his team peaking at the right time.
Who Do They Want to Play?: UCLA, Nevada or Duke. This is your typical Izzo coached team, keyed around defense and rebounding. Michigan State has slowed it down with the best of them, averaging just 62.5 possessions per game this season (308th in D-1). They are very efficient and crash the boards proficiently and should match up well against any of these teams that will play at their pace and allow them to run their sets.
Who Don't They Want to Play?: Kansas, Memphis or Texas A&M. The Spartans recently lost by 24 at Purdue, a team that forces a lot of turnovers. Hectic, athletic defensive teams with good guards who can turn up the heat (think Mario Chalmers and Russell Robinson at Kansas) will give them fits offensively.
Prediction: The Spartans are going to be a scary, scary draw for some top seed, as they figure to fall in the 8-11 seed range depending on how the rest of the season plays out (IU, @Mich, @Wisconsin, Big Ten Tournament). This group may not be as talented as the Ager-Brown-Davis teams of the past few years which frustrated State fans by failing to meet expectations, but they play well together and bear down on the defensive end. It's one of the handful of high seeds I'd be closely examining the draw and can see a major run through the brackets.
-- RK
-- RK
Tuesday, February 20, 2007
Got Cred?
Here's my breakdown of the NCAA tournament, using my highly scienfific method of looking at the conference standings, schedules, and RPI ratings. This projection is based upon the one bid leagues, such as C-USA, the WAC and the Horizon league being won by their listed squads. If not, then teams like Clemson, West Virginia, Tennessee, Illinois, Arizona, and Missouri State will be sweating like Italians before the day ends.
The Field of 65
America East (1): Conference champion
Atlantic 10 (1): Conference champion
ACC (7): North Carolina, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Boston College, Duke, Maryland, Clemson
Atlantic Sun (1): Conference champion
Big 12 (6): Kansas, Texas A&M, Texas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech
Big East (7): Pittsburgh, Georgetown, Louisville, Notre dame, Marquette, West Virginia, Villanova
Big Sky (1): Conference champion
Big South (1): Winthrop
Big Ten (5): Wisconsin, Ohio State, Indiana, Michigan State, Illinois
Big West (1): Conference champion
CAA (1): Conference champion
Conference USA (1): Memphis
Horizon (1): Butler
Ivy (1): Conference champion
MAAC (1): Conference champion
Mid-Continent (1): Conference champion
MAC (1): Conference champion
MEAC (1): Conference champion
MVC (3): Southern Illinois, Creighton, Missouri State
MWC (3): Air Force, BYU, UNLV
NEC (1): Conference champion
OVC (1): Conference champion
Pac-10 (6): UCLA, Washington State, USC, Stanford, Oregon, Arizona,
Patriot (1): Conference champion
SEC (5): Florida, Vanderbillt, Kentucky, Alabama, Tennessee
Southern (1): Conference champion
Southland (1): Conference champion
SWAC (1): Conference champion
Sun Belt (1): Conference champion
WCC (1): Conference champion
WAC (1): Nevada
On the Bubble:
Bradley (RPI 29): Why down on the Braves? Bradley was hammered by bubble team Michigan State by 29 in December, lost by 21 to Wichita State and have yet to beat the three best teams in the MVC-- Missouri State, Southern Illionois or Creighton. They did beat Virginia Commonwealth, but that win is looking less impressive as VCU's profile continues to sag.
Old Dominion (RPI 44): The Monarchs have no more key games remaining in the regular season, facing middle of the pack Towson and William & Mary. Neither team is to be underestimated (8-8 in the CAA), but neither win will help their profile. In order for ODU to make the tournament as an at-large, they would need to have a dominating performance in the CAA tournament, and lose by one in the finals.
Georgia Tech (RPI 45): The worst enemy for the Yellow Jackets is their incompetence within the conference. Despite picking up a key win at Memphis and at home against Duke, Georgia Tech has failed to capitalize against tourney bound teams Maryland, Virginia Tech, and Clemson. In order to boost their profile, Tech needs to sweep Virginia, UNC and Boston College to get moved into the lock category. As of right now, Clemson and Maryland sit above them by virtue of beating the Yellow Jackets two out of three times they've matched up.
Georgia (RPI 54): The skinny is that the Dawgs didn't take care of business in a four game stretch against Georgia Tech, Clemson, Wisconsin, and Florida. Look for Georgia to get overlooked, barring a run to the SEC title game. If they do make the tournament, however, keep them in your mind as a team that can spring an upset. Levi Stukes has a deadly three point stroke, shooting 43.7% from distance this season.
DePaul (RPI 56): Approaching that coveted .500/one game better than .500 mark is DePaul, who overcame a slow start this season (including losses to Northwestern, Purdue, and UAB) to knock off likely NCAA teams Notre Dame and Marquette. DePaul gets another shot at Notre Dame tonight (in progress), but needs to win this game, as well as two games in the Big East tournament to make their case stronger.
UPDATE: The Blue Demons were destroyed by Notre Dame tonight, further lowering their chances for an at-large.
VCU (RPI 57): Oddly, the best team in the Colonial has a weaker profile than Old Dominion. The Rams are plauged by a a poor early season schedule, losing two games to possible tournament teams Appalachian State and Xavier, and a Bracket Buster game againt Bradley, who will likely miss the tournament this year.
Michigan (RPI 58): The Wolverines have the same story as everybody else on this bubble watch-- lack of marquee wins. I don't think a team who got drilled by 37 by UCLA is ever going to be a tournament team. Best case is if the Wolverines can upset either Ohio State or Wisconsin, and manage to keep it close in the final. Other than that, welcome back to the NIT!
Gonzaga (RPI 71): There are teams with better computer numbers than Mark Few's team, but there are very few teams (bubble or otherwise) with the out of conference profile that they have managed to compile. Obviously, the arrest and subsequent suspension of Josh Heytvelt cripples this team, but there is a remote chance that the committee rewards this team for their work early on-- knocking down North Carolina and Texas. This, of course, is negated by their losses to Duke, Nevada and Virginia.
UPDATE: Heytvelt was charged with felony drug possession, meaning that the test completed by the state lab came back with definitive results. Say bye-bye to the 'Zags' at-large tournament hopes.
Winthrop (RPI 72): Craig Bradshaw and the Eagles almost knocked down Tennessee in the tournament last year, and gave UNC all they could handle in a neutral site game in Charlotte, played winnable games against Maryland and Wisconsin (lost by 11 and 3, respectively), with one bad loss to Texas A&M by 20. The good, is that they beat fellow bubbler Old Dominion in Norfolk by six. Why are they on the bubble with such a marginal profile? Personally, I'd throw them into the tournament over a lot of the middle of the pack power teams. And I will now jump off of my soapbox.
Updated at 10:10 pm, February 20
(posted by JH)
Wednesday, February 14, 2007
Tourney File: Virginia Tech
Here is the second of a periodic breakdown of teams expected to be in the NCAA Tournament
Virginia Tech
What to Like: Team basketball. The Hokies have good players; maybe even great players, but what separates this team from, say Virginia, is that there is never an instance while watching them on television that would make you say "Wow,
[insert player name]is taking a lot of bad shots". Last night against UNC, Zabian Dowdell may have scored 33 points, but he did so in 41 minutes, on fifteen shots from the floor and an impressive 17-19 from the foul line. Five Hokies took more than ten shots, which means that they're spreading the ball around the floor.
What to be Pleasantly Surprised By: Coach Seth Greenberg, who has come into a football school, and created a top notch basketball program in arguably the best basketball conference in the game
What Will Keep Them From Winning: Depth. This is not a deep team, and could hurt them in the tournament if they ever run into foul trouble on the perimeter. Compounding their depth issues, they are also very young on the bench, getting significant minutes from four sophomores and freshmen.
What We Don't Know: If their good fortune can last. Dowdell is the leader of this team, and their tourney hopes delicately are balanced on his health and strong play.
X-Factor: Sophomore A.D. Vasallo. In four games at UNC (2-10 from the floor last night), at GW (2-6 threes) at Western Michigan (1-6 from distance), at Marshall (0-4 from three point), the Hokies won only one game, and lost the others by a margin of three or fewer points. In their loss against Southern Illinois, Vasallo shot 2-6 from long range as they lost by five.
Who Do They Want to Play?: North Carolina and Kansas. Virginia Tech has proven twice that they can slow down the pace at will, and grind it out with the best of teams who rely on talent, more so than a system of sorts to win games.
Who Don't They Want to Play?: Texas A&M and Ohio State. The Aggies are showing up a lot as a team that teams do not want to face in the tournament, and it's because of their defense. Acie Law is the kind of player who can put some kind of clamps on Dowdell, who is the Hokies' catalyst on offense. Ohio State would cause tremendous matchup problems for VT, since the Buckeyes can limit penetration with Greg Oden anchoring the lane.
Prediction: Anywhere from a four to a six seed. The Hokies still have a lot of work to do (hosting BC and Clemson, travelling to Virginia), but the true challenges are games against NC State and Miami. I wouldn't fault them for losing to Virginia at the John Paul Jones Center, but they need to take care of business at home, against the bubbling Wolfpack and the bottom feeder Hurricanes.
Virginia Tech
What to Like: Team basketball. The Hokies have good players; maybe even great players, but what separates this team from, say Virginia, is that there is never an instance while watching them on television that would make you say "Wow,
[insert player name]is taking a lot of bad shots". Last night against UNC, Zabian Dowdell may have scored 33 points, but he did so in 41 minutes, on fifteen shots from the floor and an impressive 17-19 from the foul line. Five Hokies took more than ten shots, which means that they're spreading the ball around the floor.What to be Pleasantly Surprised By: Coach Seth Greenberg, who has come into a football school, and created a top notch basketball program in arguably the best basketball conference in the game
What Will Keep Them From Winning: Depth. This is not a deep team, and could hurt them in the tournament if they ever run into foul trouble on the perimeter. Compounding their depth issues, they are also very young on the bench, getting significant minutes from four sophomores and freshmen.
What We Don't Know: If their good fortune can last. Dowdell is the leader of this team, and their tourney hopes delicately are balanced on his health and strong play.
X-Factor: Sophomore A.D. Vasallo. In four games at UNC (2-10 from the floor last night), at GW (2-6 threes) at Western Michigan (1-6 from distance), at Marshall (0-4 from three point), the Hokies won only one game, and lost the others by a margin of three or fewer points. In their loss against Southern Illinois, Vasallo shot 2-6 from long range as they lost by five.
Who Do They Want to Play?: North Carolina and Kansas. Virginia Tech has proven twice that they can slow down the pace at will, and grind it out with the best of teams who rely on talent, more so than a system of sorts to win games.
Who Don't They Want to Play?: Texas A&M and Ohio State. The Aggies are showing up a lot as a team that teams do not want to face in the tournament, and it's because of their defense. Acie Law is the kind of player who can put some kind of clamps on Dowdell, who is the Hokies' catalyst on offense. Ohio State would cause tremendous matchup problems for VT, since the Buckeyes can limit penetration with Greg Oden anchoring the lane.Prediction: Anywhere from a four to a six seed. The Hokies still have a lot of work to do (hosting BC and Clemson, travelling to Virginia), but the true challenges are games against NC State and Miami. I wouldn't fault them for losing to Virginia at the John Paul Jones Center, but they need to take care of business at home, against the bubbling Wolfpack and the bottom feeder Hurricanes.
Tuesday, February 13, 2007
Life On The Bubble: Texas
The bubble. That's right, I said it. That's where you find the 'Horns, in my book. Contrary to what many major media outlets will have you believe, Texas (18-7, 8-3) is still far from a lock to dance in March. Are they going to get in? Probably. They're sitting in 3rd in the Big XII and they have the star-power. You think the money-hungry NCAAs doesn't want to showcase Kevin Durant in March? Dream on.
But... a closer look reveals a profile as shaky as many out there on the bubble. Who have they beaten? The victories over LSU, Arkansas and at Texas Tech don't carry nearly as much weight as people once thought they would. The beat Oklahoma State by 29 last night in Austin? Would that be the same Oklahoma State squad that is now 0-5 in true road games this year? Exactly. Couple that with the fact they've dropped numerous contests against other NCAA candidates - Michigan State, Gonzaga, Tennessee, Villanova, Kansas State - and you have yourself one hollow profile that's hiding behind its media hype.
While Bill Simmons may continue to sack-tickle Kevin Durant until you are convinced Texas is legit, I'll throw some numbers at you. Their RPI is at 54. Their strength of schedule sits at 87. The Longhorns are 2-6 against the RPI top-50. Bubble, bubble, bubble.
Sure, they have the phenomenal freshman 1-2 punch of Kevin Durant and DJ Augustin that, when clicking, can be one of the most difficult offenses to stop in the NCAAs. They've thrown up 100 four times this season. They've also lost two of those contests and have given up triple-digits one other time (@ Texas A&M). This team cannot defend. Period. Ken Pomeroy currently has them 101st in his defensive efficiency rankings. Want to know the three teams on either side of them? St. Joe's, East Tennessee State, Dayton, Northwestern, Indiana State and Ball State. Not quite the nation's elite. Until they learn how to guard, I'm not convinced this team can make it out of the first weekend in March.
Before then, however, they need to get in, which seems manageable enough. Contests at Baylor and hosting a struggling Texas Tech team should get them to 10 conference wins, which is impressive, before a gauntlet of a finish - at Oklahoma, vs. Texas A&M, at Kansas. I'll warn the 'Horns - don't slip up or else you may find yourselves having to get your marquee victory for your NCAA resume or you may just find yourselves handing over some awfully unimpressive numbers and breakouts to the committee.
-- RK
But... a closer look reveals a profile as shaky as many out there on the bubble. Who have they beaten? The victories over LSU, Arkansas and at Texas Tech don't carry nearly as much weight as people once thought they would. The beat Oklahoma State by 29 last night in Austin? Would that be the same Oklahoma State squad that is now 0-5 in true road games this year? Exactly. Couple that with the fact they've dropped numerous contests against other NCAA candidates - Michigan State, Gonzaga, Tennessee, Villanova, Kansas State - and you have yourself one hollow profile that's hiding behind its media hype.
While Bill Simmons may continue to sack-tickle Kevin Durant until you are convinced Texas is legit, I'll throw some numbers at you. Their RPI is at 54. Their strength of schedule sits at 87. The Longhorns are 2-6 against the RPI top-50. Bubble, bubble, bubble.Sure, they have the phenomenal freshman 1-2 punch of Kevin Durant and DJ Augustin that, when clicking, can be one of the most difficult offenses to stop in the NCAAs. They've thrown up 100 four times this season. They've also lost two of those contests and have given up triple-digits one other time (@ Texas A&M). This team cannot defend. Period. Ken Pomeroy currently has them 101st in his defensive efficiency rankings. Want to know the three teams on either side of them? St. Joe's, East Tennessee State, Dayton, Northwestern, Indiana State and Ball State. Not quite the nation's elite. Until they learn how to guard, I'm not convinced this team can make it out of the first weekend in March.
Before then, however, they need to get in, which seems manageable enough. Contests at Baylor and hosting a struggling Texas Tech team should get them to 10 conference wins, which is impressive, before a gauntlet of a finish - at Oklahoma, vs. Texas A&M, at Kansas. I'll warn the 'Horns - don't slip up or else you may find yourselves having to get your marquee victory for your NCAA resume or you may just find yourselves handing over some awfully unimpressive numbers and breakouts to the committee.
-- RK
Monday, February 12, 2007
Life On The Bubble: Illinois
From one bubble team with a racially offensive mascot to the next, I hop across the bubble from FSU to my alma mater, Illinois.
The best case for Illinois (18-9, 6-6) might be that, when the dust settles, this turns out to be the fourth best team in the Big Ten. Sure, the committee will tell you it looks at individual profiles and does not consider conference affiliation, but I personally have a hard time believing that. All in all, Illinois may be helped more by the shortcomings of others (Michigan State's recent slide, Purdue's inability to get a marquee win in Columbus, Iowa's non-conference resume) than its own profile. As of today, respected bracketologist Joe Lunardi over at ESPN had moved Illinois into his field as the last team dancing with an at-large profile, which is odd because they slid from out of the field to in despite losing over the weekend in Bloomington.
This could be one of the most bland and boring profiles you will see out there, something that makes this a difficult case to discuss. There are no wins on the resume that jump out at you (best wins being Indiana and MSU at home, neutral over Bradley), yet there are no cringe-worthy losses on the slate either (worst loss at Michigan) -- something that seems unlikely to change before conference play closes out. Illinois sees home dates with Northwestern and Michigan and a trip to Penn State before a crucial showdown with the Hawkeyes in Iowa City to close the conference schedule.
The common opinion seems to be that 9-7 will have the Illini sweating bullets on Selection Sunday and 10-6 should have them firmly in. The scary thing is it's looking more and more like the Illini will see Iowa twice in a week (at Iowa on March 3 and then in the 4/5 game in the Big Ten quarters) before even getting a crack at stamping their dance card with a marquee W over the likes of a Wisconsin or Ohio State.
It's been an unusual year for fans down in the C-U and it would be quite the empty and odd feeling thumbing the sports pages for the Illini's NIT matchup instead of checking the listings for their 1st-round start time in the NCAAs. Hopefully, the committee will look favorably upon their numerous injuries (McBride, Randle, Frazier, Smith and Semreau have all missed large chunks of play this year) and their relatively strong computer numbers (41 in RPI, 17 in SOS through Sunday).
If the bubble bursts, I can't say I blame the committee. The Illini have definately had their share of chances, blowing second half leads in many of their losses and falling short time and again to get their staple win to hang their hats on. Until then, it's pins and needles for the orange and blue.
-- RK
(P.S. I forgot for a second google image searching "Bruce Weber" returns gay art. Fantastic.)
The best case for Illinois (18-9, 6-6) might be that, when the dust settles, this turns out to be the fourth best team in the Big Ten. Sure, the committee will tell you it looks at individual profiles and does not consider conference affiliation, but I personally have a hard time believing that. All in all, Illinois may be helped more by the shortcomings of others (Michigan State's recent slide, Purdue's inability to get a marquee win in Columbus, Iowa's non-conference resume) than its own profile. As of today, respected bracketologist Joe Lunardi over at ESPN had moved Illinois into his field as the last team dancing with an at-large profile, which is odd because they slid from out of the field to in despite losing over the weekend in Bloomington.This could be one of the most bland and boring profiles you will see out there, something that makes this a difficult case to discuss. There are no wins on the resume that jump out at you (best wins being Indiana and MSU at home, neutral over Bradley), yet there are no cringe-worthy losses on the slate either (worst loss at Michigan) -- something that seems unlikely to change before conference play closes out. Illinois sees home dates with Northwestern and Michigan and a trip to Penn State before a crucial showdown with the Hawkeyes in Iowa City to close the conference schedule.
The common opinion seems to be that 9-7 will have the Illini sweating bullets on Selection Sunday and 10-6 should have them firmly in. The scary thing is it's looking more and more like the Illini will see Iowa twice in a week (at Iowa on March 3 and then in the 4/5 game in the Big Ten quarters) before even getting a crack at stamping their dance card with a marquee W over the likes of a Wisconsin or Ohio State.
It's been an unusual year for fans down in the C-U and it would be quite the empty and odd feeling thumbing the sports pages for the Illini's NIT matchup instead of checking the listings for their 1st-round start time in the NCAAs. Hopefully, the committee will look favorably upon their numerous injuries (McBride, Randle, Frazier, Smith and Semreau have all missed large chunks of play this year) and their relatively strong computer numbers (41 in RPI, 17 in SOS through Sunday).
If the bubble bursts, I can't say I blame the committee. The Illini have definately had their share of chances, blowing second half leads in many of their losses and falling short time and again to get their staple win to hang their hats on. Until then, it's pins and needles for the orange and blue.
-- RK
(P.S. I forgot for a second google image searching "Bruce Weber" returns gay art. Fantastic.)
Sunday, February 11, 2007
How does West Virgina do it?
With West
West Virginia
John Beilein’s system is what enables the Mountaineers to overachieve with average talent. Beilein gets the most out of his players. His teams always show up to play and display a tremendous amount of heart on the court. There aren’t any highly rated recruits on the
The main weakness for the Mountaineers is their lack of strength on the frontline. They are one of the worst rebounding teams in the country, 259th in the country in rebounding margin a game. They usually struggle against physical teams such as
(posted by SY)
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