Forget who's in and who's out for a minute. The hardest job the NCAA Selection committee has to do is ranking and seeding its included teams. More specifically, it's an absolute beast of a job to determine the postseason fate of the top mid-major (or should I say non-power conference?) teams. It's a job that everyone seems to have a wide range of opinions on, bringing enormous amounts of heat regardless of which way the committee leans. I'm looking at you, Billy Packer. Take the 1-seed St. Joe's was given in 2004 or the fluctuation in seeding Gonzaga has seen over recent years and placing these teams in the field is no easy task.
With that, I'm here to help the committee sort through some of this field. Here's a look at a handful of "other" schools that are comfortably in the tournament field even without an automatic invite.
Memphis
The resume: 26-3, 18 game win streak, RPI of 7 with SOS at 71. Undefeated in conference play, but just 1-3 against the RPI top-50 (5-3 against the top-100 however).
The verdict: I'd throw them a 4-seed, which would probably put me on the low end of the spectrum. Their winning streak dates back to before Christmas, but they've played all of 3 top-100 games in that time period. Conference-USA is a joke this year, with only Houston (at 97) joining the Tigers in the top-100 of the RPI. I know the computer numbers look nice, but I'm not really buying into it. Win out with others stumbling and I would consider a 3, but those putting them on the 2-seed line are out of their minds.
Southern Illinois
The resume: 24-5, 11 game win streak, RPI of 5 with SOS at 39. Finished MVC play at 15-3 as is 7-2 versus the RPI top-50 (and 12-4 against the top 100).
The verdict: Hovering right on the 2/3 line. Stack this profile next to Memphis' and tell me you want the Tigers seeded ahead of them. You can't. Perhaps I'm standing atop my Missouri Valley soapbox, but the conference is extremely deep and loaded at the bottom. There were zero easy wins in this league. The Salukis would benefit immensely from doubling down on Missouri Valley titles, but their shot at a 2-seed will most likely be the byproduct of teams ahead of them slipping up rather than their accomplishments leap-frogging the others.
Nevada
The resume: 25-3 with a 13-2 mark in the WAC, RPI of 22 with SOS at 125. The telling stat is their 0-1 record against the top-50, but they are 10-3 against the top-100. Looking at the schedule, they haven't beaten anyone in the top-70 currently.
The verdict: Their wins over Cal, Northern Iowa, Santa Clara and Gonzaga don't hold much weight anymore as all of those teams outside the WCC tourney winner don't figure to be dancing. With the loss last night to Utah State, Nevada will need to beat New Mexico State at home on Saturday to salvage even a split against both of their top WAC competition. It's a resume that's more troubling upon further inspection and breakdown and because of that, I'd award Nevada a 7-seed, if the tourney started today.
Winthrop
The resume: 23-4 after an undefeated (14-0) Big South campaign. The RPI sits at 69 with a pretty terrible SOS at 256. Winthrop is just 2-4 against the top-50 with another win against the 50-100 region and two over 100-200.
The verdict: I'd put the Eagles in the 8/9 game if they win the Big South championship game this weekend and still in the tourney (with absolutely no second thoughts) should they slip up. And that's with some restraint. I truly believe this is the giant killer in this years' field and hwo good this team is appears hidden under some weaker computer numbers. It's the conference numbers that hurt the profile, ranked as the 29th best conference in America. But the Eagles have some very nice wins against fellow mid-major powers Missouri State and Old Dominion and an ever-improving road victory at Mississippi State. I know the committee doesn't look at margin of victory, but their four losses came at the hands of UNC (by 7 in Greensboro), at Maryland (by 11), at Wisconsin (by 3 in OT) and at Texas A&M (by 20). There's not a single blemish on the schedule outside of those. This team is going to be an absolutely scary draw in a few weeks.
-- RK
Showing posts with label Southern Illinois. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Southern Illinois. Show all posts
Friday, March 2, 2007
Friday, February 16, 2007
Busting Up The Brackets, Part II
Here is a further breakdown of the major games, as well as a rating of how this could shake up the field of 64+1 if they should need to gain an at-large berth into the tournament. The event starts Friday, and concludes on Saturday night.
Appalachian State at Wichita State (Sat. 1PM ET, ESPNU)
Conference affiliations: Southern (Appalachian State), MVC (Wichita State)
At-large implications: Moderate
Breakdown: A matchup of two teams whose profiles have slightly faded in conference play. Wichita State (16-10, 8-8) was well-documented, climbing into the Top-10 at one point, after victories at George Mason, at LSU and at Syracuse, all of which seem hollow now after struggling in conference play. It would probably take them winning out (Applachian State, Missouri State, at Creighton) to get themselves back on the bubble. Similarly, Appalachian State (17-6, 12-3) got some huge victories over Virginia, Vanderbuilt and VCU prior to play in the Southern Conference, where they have dropped 3 conference games to 200+ RPI opponents. The winner keeps their long-shot at-large hopes alive, but both most likely will have to rely on winning their conference tournaments.
Players to Watch: Mountaineers point guard DJ Thompson has found his long range shooting stroke recently, hitting 20-of-42 3-point attempts over his last five games. The Shockers will need to defend the perimeter with guards PJ Couisnard and Sean Ogari to hold Thompson in check.
Northern Iowa at Nevada (Sat. 6PM ET, ESPN2)
Conference affiliations: MVC (Northern Iowa), WAC (Nevada)
At-large implications: Low
Breakdown: This is a battle of two teams on opposite ends of the spectrum. Nevada (22-2, 11-1) is already locked in for March once again and is merely trying to keep winning for seeding. Northern Iowa (15-11, 7-9) looked poised to make their 4th consecutive NCAA Tournament back in January when they sat at 12-2 overall and 4-0 in conference, but have since struggled, winning just 3 of their last 12 games to fall out of contention in the Missouri Valley. A victory by Northern Iowa won't heal their resume nor would it really bruise the at-large profile of the Wolfpack.
Players to Watch: The matchup to watch here is on the inside, where 3-year starters Eric Coleman and Grant Stout of Northern Iowa will battle National Player of the Year candidate Nick Fazekas. The duo has been somewhat inconsistent during UNI's recent skid and will need to neutralize Fazekas and hope they don't get burned by the underrated Marcelus Kemp on the perimeter.
Old Dominion at Toledo (Sat. 6PM ET, ESPN360)
Conference affiliations: CAA (Old Dominion), MAC (Toledo)
At-large implications: Moderate
Breakdown: Old Dominion (20-7, 13-3) comes into this contest streaking, winners of seven straight and fresh off of victories over fellow Colonial contenders VCU and Hofstra. They sit a game back of VCU in conference with two middle-tier CAA opponents on their schedule and a bubblicious RPI of 52. A victory here could go a long way in a few Sundays. For Toledo (14-10, 10-2), it appears the MAC is destined to be a 1-bid league once again (this league has continued to beat each other up and out of at-large spots this entire decade) and a conference tournament victory is eminent to be dancing in March. They boast a nice conference record, but the 4-8 non-conference season eliminates them from consideration.
Players to Watch: Lithuanian product and leading scorer Valdas Vasyllus is coming off a career-game in the Monarchs recent win over Hofstra. I look for Toledo to put Florentino Valencia on him, which should give ODU a noticeable size advantage on the interior.
Southern Illinois at Butler (Sat. 4PM ET, ESPN2)
Conference affiliations: MVC (Southern Illinois), Horizon (Butler)
At-large implications: Low
Breakdown: Just how far has Bracket Busters come since its inauguration in 2005? This year's marquee game tells that story - it has absolutely no barring on either of these teams making their NCAA cases. Why? They're both locks to make the tourney. This one is simply to beef the resume, fight for some seeding and gain some bragging rights for their respective conferences. SIU (21-5, 13-3) appears to be the RPI darling this year, sitting 8th with a hoard of good victories in-conference and a neutral site W over tournament-bound Virginia Tech. Butler (22-3, 11-2) took the mid-major world by storm early with in-state bragging rights over Notre Dame, Indiana and Purdue as well as victories over Gonzaga and Tennessee. They actually sit a game behind (tied in the loss column, however) with Wright State in conference play, but a solid resume and good computer numbers (RPI currently at 30) won't have them left in the cold come tournament time.
Players to Watch: This is a battle of two teams that can absolutely suffocate you defensively. Butler star guard AJ Graves has saved some of his best performances for the brightest lights, routinely topping his 17.6 scoring average in Butler's key games. Expect the dynamic backcourt trio of the Salukis of Bryan Mullins, Jamal Tatum and Tony Young to have an eye on Graves at all times. I look for someone else from the Bulldogs to step up if they want get a win here.
Enjoy the games, both big and mid conference, this weekend...
-- RK
Appalachian State at Wichita State (Sat. 1PM ET, ESPNU)
Conference affiliations: Southern (Appalachian State), MVC (Wichita State)
At-large implications: Moderate
Breakdown: A matchup of two teams whose profiles have slightly faded in conference play. Wichita State (16-10, 8-8) was well-documented, climbing into the Top-10 at one point, after victories at George Mason, at LSU and at Syracuse, all of which seem hollow now after struggling in conference play. It would probably take them winning out (Applachian State, Missouri State, at Creighton) to get themselves back on the bubble. Similarly, Appalachian State (17-6, 12-3) got some huge victories over Virginia, Vanderbuilt and VCU prior to play in the Southern Conference, where they have dropped 3 conference games to 200+ RPI opponents. The winner keeps their long-shot at-large hopes alive, but both most likely will have to rely on winning their conference tournaments.
Players to Watch: Mountaineers point guard DJ Thompson has found his long range shooting stroke recently, hitting 20-of-42 3-point attempts over his last five games. The Shockers will need to defend the perimeter with guards PJ Couisnard and Sean Ogari to hold Thompson in check.
Northern Iowa at Nevada (Sat. 6PM ET, ESPN2)
Conference affiliations: MVC (Northern Iowa), WAC (Nevada)
At-large implications: Low
Breakdown: This is a battle of two teams on opposite ends of the spectrum. Nevada (22-2, 11-1) is already locked in for March once again and is merely trying to keep winning for seeding. Northern Iowa (15-11, 7-9) looked poised to make their 4th consecutive NCAA Tournament back in January when they sat at 12-2 overall and 4-0 in conference, but have since struggled, winning just 3 of their last 12 games to fall out of contention in the Missouri Valley. A victory by Northern Iowa won't heal their resume nor would it really bruise the at-large profile of the Wolfpack.
Players to Watch: The matchup to watch here is on the inside, where 3-year starters Eric Coleman and Grant Stout of Northern Iowa will battle National Player of the Year candidate Nick Fazekas. The duo has been somewhat inconsistent during UNI's recent skid and will need to neutralize Fazekas and hope they don't get burned by the underrated Marcelus Kemp on the perimeter.
Old Dominion at Toledo (Sat. 6PM ET, ESPN360)
Conference affiliations: CAA (Old Dominion), MAC (Toledo)
At-large implications: Moderate
Breakdown: Old Dominion (20-7, 13-3) comes into this contest streaking, winners of seven straight and fresh off of victories over fellow Colonial contenders VCU and Hofstra. They sit a game back of VCU in conference with two middle-tier CAA opponents on their schedule and a bubblicious RPI of 52. A victory here could go a long way in a few Sundays. For Toledo (14-10, 10-2), it appears the MAC is destined to be a 1-bid league once again (this league has continued to beat each other up and out of at-large spots this entire decade) and a conference tournament victory is eminent to be dancing in March. They boast a nice conference record, but the 4-8 non-conference season eliminates them from consideration.
Players to Watch: Lithuanian product and leading scorer Valdas Vasyllus is coming off a career-game in the Monarchs recent win over Hofstra. I look for Toledo to put Florentino Valencia on him, which should give ODU a noticeable size advantage on the interior.
Southern Illinois at Butler (Sat. 4PM ET, ESPN2)
Conference affiliations: MVC (Southern Illinois), Horizon (Butler)
At-large implications: Low
Breakdown: Just how far has Bracket Busters come since its inauguration in 2005? This year's marquee game tells that story - it has absolutely no barring on either of these teams making their NCAA cases. Why? They're both locks to make the tourney. This one is simply to beef the resume, fight for some seeding and gain some bragging rights for their respective conferences. SIU (21-5, 13-3) appears to be the RPI darling this year, sitting 8th with a hoard of good victories in-conference and a neutral site W over tournament-bound Virginia Tech. Butler (22-3, 11-2) took the mid-major world by storm early with in-state bragging rights over Notre Dame, Indiana and Purdue as well as victories over Gonzaga and Tennessee. They actually sit a game behind (tied in the loss column, however) with Wright State in conference play, but a solid resume and good computer numbers (RPI currently at 30) won't have them left in the cold come tournament time.
Players to Watch: This is a battle of two teams that can absolutely suffocate you defensively. Butler star guard AJ Graves has saved some of his best performances for the brightest lights, routinely topping his 17.6 scoring average in Butler's key games. Expect the dynamic backcourt trio of the Salukis of Bryan Mullins, Jamal Tatum and Tony Young to have an eye on Graves at all times. I look for someone else from the Bulldogs to step up if they want get a win here.
Enjoy the games, both big and mid conference, this weekend...
-- RK
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