Busting Up The Brackets, Part II

Here is a further breakdown of the major games, as well as a rating of how this could shake up the field of 64+1 if they should need to gain an at-large berth into the tournament. The event starts Friday, and concludes on Saturday night.

Appalachian State at Wichita State (Sat. 1PM ET, ESPNU)
Conference affiliations: Southern (Appalachian State), MVC (Wichita State)
At-large implications: Moderate
Breakdown: A matchup of two teams whose profiles have slightly faded in conference play. Wichita State (16-10, 8-8) was well-documented, climbing into the Top-10 at one point, after victories at George Mason, at LSU and at Syracuse, all of which seem hollow now after struggling in conference play. It would probably take them winning out (Applachian State, Missouri State, at Creighton) to get themselves back on the bubble. Similarly, Appalachian State (17-6, 12-3) got some huge victories over Virginia, Vanderbuilt and VCU prior to play in the Southern Conference, where they have dropped 3 conference games to 200+ RPI opponents. The winner keeps their long-shot at-large hopes alive, but both most likely will have to rely on winning their conference tournaments.
Players to Watch: Mountaineers point guard DJ Thompson has found his long range shooting stroke recently, hitting 20-of-42 3-point attempts over his last five games. The Shockers will need to defend the perimeter with guards PJ Couisnard and Sean Ogari to hold Thompson in check.

Northern Iowa at Nevada (Sat. 6PM ET, ESPN2)
Conference affiliations: MVC (Northern Iowa), WAC (Nevada)
At-large implications: Low
Breakdown: This is a battle of two teams on opposite ends of the spectrum. Nevada (22-2, 11-1) is already locked in for March once again and is merely trying to keep winning for seeding. Northern Iowa (15-11, 7-9) looked poised to make their 4th consecutive NCAA Tournament back in January when they sat at 12-2 overall and 4-0 in conference, but have since struggled, winning just 3 of their last 12 games to fall out of contention in the Missouri Valley. A victory by Northern Iowa won't heal their resume nor would it really bruise the at-large profile of the Wolfpack.
Players to Watch: The matchup to watch here is on the inside, where 3-year starters Eric Coleman and Grant Stout of Northern Iowa will battle National Player of the Year candidate Nick Fazekas. The duo has been somewhat inconsistent during UNI's recent skid and will need to neutralize Fazekas and hope they don't get burned by the underrated Marcelus Kemp on the perimeter.

Old Dominion at Toledo (Sat. 6PM ET, ESPN360)
Conference affiliations: CAA (Old Dominion), MAC (Toledo)
At-large implications: Moderate
Breakdown: Old Dominion (20-7, 13-3) comes into this contest streaking, winners of seven straight and fresh off of victories over fellow Colonial contenders VCU and Hofstra. They sit a game back of VCU in conference with two middle-tier CAA opponents on their schedule and a bubblicious RPI of 52. A victory here could go a long way in a few Sundays. For Toledo (14-10, 10-2), it appears the MAC is destined to be a 1-bid league once again (this league has continued to beat each other up and out of at-large spots this entire decade) and a conference tournament victory is eminent to be dancing in March. They boast a nice conference record, but the 4-8 non-conference season eliminates them from consideration.
Players to Watch: Lithuanian product and leading scorer Valdas Vasyllus is coming off a career-game in the Monarchs recent win over Hofstra. I look for Toledo to put Florentino Valencia on him, which should give ODU a noticeable size advantage on the interior.

Southern Illinois at Butler (Sat. 4PM ET, ESPN2)
Conference affiliations: MVC (Southern Illinois), Horizon (Butler)
At-large implications: Low
Breakdown: Just how far has Bracket Busters come since its inauguration in 2005? This year's marquee game tells that story - it has absolutely no barring on either of these teams making their NCAA cases. Why? They're both locks to make the tourney. This one is simply to beef the resume, fight for some seeding and gain some bragging rights for their respective conferences. SIU (21-5, 13-3) appears to be the RPI darling this year, sitting 8th with a hoard of good victories in-conference and a neutral site W over tournament-bound Virginia Tech. Butler (22-3, 11-2) took the mid-major world by storm early with in-state bragging rights over Notre Dame, Indiana and Purdue as well as victories over Gonzaga and Tennessee. They actually sit a game behind (tied in the loss column, however) with Wright State in conference play, but a solid resume and good computer numbers (RPI currently at 30) won't have them left in the cold come tournament time.
Players to Watch: This is a battle of two teams that can absolutely suffocate you defensively. Butler star guard AJ Graves has saved some of his best performances for the brightest lights, routinely topping his 17.6 scoring average in Butler's key games. Expect the dynamic backcourt trio of the Salukis of Bryan Mullins, Jamal Tatum and Tony Young to have an eye on Graves at all times. I look for someone else from the Bulldogs to step up if they want get a win here.


Enjoy the games, both big and mid conference, this weekend...

-- RK

Busting Up The Brackets, Part I

The latest edition of Bracket Busters is upon us again, and once again, there are games with significant NCAA tournament implications. The concept, for those unfamiliar, is taking mid-major programs and pitting them against each other on national television so the committee and fans alike can get a glimpse at the "next George Mason" (formerly the "next Gonzaga"), as well as get a late season RPI boost they wouldn't otherwise get from their conference breathren. Every team signs on for two years, as to ensure a home game, as well as an away game in the series.

The toughest part about the Bracket Buster concept is that the participating teams are chosen before the season starts, which can result in some teams without NCAA at-large dreams being invited based on projections and estimations. This season, George Mason fits that bill as they are all but out of contention for one of the coveted 34 spots.

Here is a breakdown of the major games, as well as a rating of how this could shake up the field of 64+1 if they should need to gain an at-large berth into the tournament. The event starts Friday, and concludes on Saturday night.

Drexel at Creighton
Conference affiliations: CAA (Drexel), MVC (Creighton)
At-large implications: High
Breakdown: Creighton needs this game as the icing on their profile cake. With a 12-4 record in the uber-competitive Missouri Valley Conference, the Blue Jays have an RPI rating of 24, SOS of 27 and a 3-2 record against the RPI Top 50. The Dragons sit outside of the top fifty at 53, but are a tough team that blazed out of the gates last season during the Preseason NIT but faltered down the stretch. Drexel is in the thick of the CAA race, but the league is having a down year.
Players to Watch: Creighton's Nate Funk is a great scorer (17.3 ppg) and the guy you want on the line when the game is on the line (87.4 FT%). Drexel is led by center Frank Elegar and senior guard Bashir Mason.

Bradley at Virginia Commonwealth
Conference Affiliation: MVC (Bradley), CAA (Virginia Commonwealth)
At-large implications: Moderate
Breakdown: The Rams and the Braves come into this game ranked 46th and 51st respectively in the RPI ratings, which means that this game is essentially an elimination from at-large consideration. VCU has done all they could with their schedule-- they have won all fifteen games against the worst of the worst, sub-150 RPI teams. VCU plays an uptempo style of basketball which should make for a fast paced game. Both teams average better than 75 points. At 8-7, Bradley is another team that is well outside of the tournament, but could use this game as a springboard to a big March.
Players to Watch: The guards for both teams. This game should be a track meet, so there should be plenty to see in transition.

Winthrop at Missouri State
Conference Affiliation: Big South (Winthrop), MVC (Missouri State)
At-large implications: High
Breakdown: Surprisingly, the team with at-large dreams is not the team from Missouri State. Winthrop, who came a desperation three pointer away from knocking off Tennesse last year, needs this profile boosting win, as they suffering in the computers (RPI of 78) due to their conference. They have played a handful of certain tournament teams, coming up short in all four game. Missouri State sits in third place in the Valley, which should be good enough to get in. They have a resume boost, having beaten Wisconsin on a neutral court in December.
Players to Watch: Winthrop's Craig Bradshaw and Missouri State's Blake Ahearn. Classic mid-major stars who are lacking that one quality that kept them from being blue chippers.

More previews to come later...

(posted by JH)