Kasko's Not-So-Organized Thoughts

First off, although I hate agreeing with Billy Packer, I thought the selection committee did very well this year. Last year was an absolute train wreck that left me wondering how the hell they came up with it (Syracuse's 5-seed, Tennessee's 2-seed, some of the bubble team inclusions, etc.). It's funny though because that train wreck turned out to produce one of the best NCAA stories ever (George Mason), so in hindsight I say thank you. The bottom line is this - being on the committee is an unenviable task every year because no matter what you do, you'll be criticized somewhere. This year, I thought the seeds were pretty much on (nobody more than 2 seeds higher or lower than I would have thought) and I can see why they made some of the decisions they made at the bottom.

A big "Fuck you!" goes out to that bag of douche known as Joe Lunardi. Not only is it now painfully obvious your stupid ass gets tipped off (check the comments section of the recent Lunardi post to see where I noted just hours before the brackets were unveiled where Joe once again moved Arkansas from out of nowhere to in, not to mention his suspicious Stanford inclusion), but his smugness and arrogance was atrocious this year. Luckily, Joe's lone miss of the bracket was my Alma Mater, Illinois.

Anyways, I caught the douchebag on the Mike & Mike Show this morning (which was fantastic, by the way, with great interviews with Mike Brey of Notre Dame and Tom Izzo of Michigan State) bitching about Illinois' inclusion. Look at their profile! RPI is 29, 11-8 in conference, 33rd non-conference SOS and 24th overall. Alarming, I know, because this team is not that good, but you can't deny the numbers. Yes, they didn't have the great wins, but they didn't lose any bad games. Hey, Joe, if you're going to argue against them, at least get your facts right. The past two days, the douche has been claiming Illinois is 3-10 against the tournament field. Excuse me, Joe, look again. Illinois beat Indiana (twice), Michigan State and... Jackson State, Florida A&M, Belmont and Miami (OH). Seven wins. Now, I'm not saying these were "good" wins per say, but they played challenging competition in the pre-conference season. They were also had 8 top-100 wins and didn't lose outside of the top-100. If you want to make a point against them, at least get the facts right you stupid asshat.

As for the teams that are doing the crying today...

Syracuse - I'll echo JH's sentiments on the Orange. Play somebody! Do I think the Cuse should have made the field? Yes, I do. Do I feel bad they didn't? Absolutely not. In fact, it got a good chuckle out of me. This is a team that didn't leave the state of New York until January 7th. How ridiculous is that? They played on the road at Canisius (I don't even know where that is but Google assures me it's in New York) and down to MSG to lose to Oklahoma State. Even the quality teams they brought in beat them (Wichita State and Drexel). Their RPI was at 50 and they lost a few games they shouldn't have - at UConn and at St. John's. Tough shit, Jimmy Boeheim. Enjoy your NIT games at the Carrier Dome. You don't enjoy leaving home anyways.

Drexel - Here's where I disagree with JH completely. To me, Bruiser Flint should be sending Jim Larranaga flowers for people considering his team. This profile was all smoke and mirrors enhanced due to George Mason's run last year and the recent success of the mid-major. Listen, take the name "Drexel" off the top of the profile and replace it with, say, "Providence". Does this even get considered out of the Big East? They lost to Rider and William & Mary (they shut down William on the perimeter, but Mary was a beast in the low post that game*). Do I have sympathy for Drexel? Absolutely. Bruiser Flint should be standing on the soapbox bitching. I love what they did in the non-conference and it'd be a shame if it deterred them and others from doing it in the future. But this team lost some bad games and they were 1-5 against the teams above them in the CAA (VCU, Old Dominion and Hofstra). They had their chances. I don't think their snub was a crime against mid-majors the way it was last year to Missouri State and their RPI of 20.

Kansas State - Listen, Huggins, I understand your drunk ass bitching for your team but call up Boeheim and play somebody. You played the 227th best non-conference schedule this year. Congrats. You won at Texas, beat Oklahoma at home and beat Texas Tech on a neutral court. But you play in the Big XII North, so you used that crutch to 10 hollow conference victories. Go out and beat Kansas or something, then file a complaint.

Florida State - I'm not touching this one because I am assuming there will be a whole post dedicated to it. Let me say this - I think it's a shame this team isn't getting much snub talk. This is a good profile and their 5-game skid game without Toney Douglas and now he's back. If you want to take out a Stanford or an Arkansas (which, by all means, go ahead), I'd throw FSU at the top of the list to replace them.

Now let's talk about the dumbest decision made of the week, courtesy of NBC. One-hour of The Office on Thursday competing against the NCAA games. Brilliant guys, just brilliant. Who the fuck made that call? I'd wager that 1/3 of The Office viewership would be "sports fans" and now a good chunk of them won't be watching that special. I, for certain, will be placing that one in the DVR bin. This isn't Grey's Anatomy here, a good chunk of your viewers still have their testicles attached. Now, if you were to bitch that Grey's and the games overlap, well, let's just say Tim Hardaway does not approve of your bitching. Terrible decision by NBC though. Just atrocious.

More to come later, I hope.

-- RK

(* - Joke courtesy of Deadspin comments section. It was just too good to resist.)

In, Out, or In Between: ACC and Big East

ACC (locks: North Carolina, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Maryland, Duke)

Clemson

JH: I think that the Tigers are out as of right now. Looking at their non-conference schedule, it's hard to imagine a team with just one quality win in conference and wasn't tested before conference play should snag one of the coveted at-large spots. With that said, this team is at the very top of the bubble, due to knocking off Old Dominion and Appalachian State.

RK: Who'd have thought 17-0 would have you on the wrong side of the bubble? They stopped the tailspin this week and put themselves back in the discussion, but it's still a 4-9 record in their last 13 coupled with a relatively weak non-conference slate that has the Tigers needing an ACC run. I think they need wins over Florida State (elimination game) and North Carolina to get in, otherwise it's easy for the committee to dismiss them.

Georgia Tech

JH: In. They split the season series with Clemson, won at Memphis and beat UNC at home. They are 7-3 in their last ten heading into the ACC tournament, and will probably need to win two games to solidify their chances.

RK: Not only do I think this team is now a lock as long as they avoid the bad loss to Wake Forest, I think this is a serious contender for a sleeper in the NCAAs. The good wins are there for the Jackets, as is a .500 conference record. I think they just need one more to move to a lock.

Big East (locks: Georgetown, Pitt, Louisville, Notre Dame, Marquette)

Syracuse, West Virginia/Providence, DePaul/Villanova

JH: Essentially, the losers of the first round game should start marketing their first round NIT home game. All of these teams have similar profiles, with West Virginia and DePaul having the most glamourous out of conference wins (UCLA and Kansas, respectively). With a first-round win, I would put WVU and DePaul in the tournament with no questions asked, Villanova would be on a firmer bubble, whereas Providence would have to probably win two games to supplement their weak profile.

RK: With the victory this weekend, I'd actually throw Nova closer to the lock field and keep the Cuse on the bubble. Why? Syracuse had a weak in-conference schedule (something the committee says it looks at...) and played nobody (as usual) before the Big East. They even lost a few times in the Dome in pre-conference (Wichita State and Drexel) and the computer numbers aren't all there, with an RPI of 50 and SOS at 49. I'm not as quick with DePaul and think they need at least a second victory over G'Town to be seriously discussed. Yes, they beat Kansas, but that gets offset with the losses to Northwestern and UAB. Yuck.

Bubble File: Appalachian Sate

Here is the first of a periodic breakdown of teams sweating out their invitation to the Big Dance

Appalachian State

What to Like: Victories over Virginia, Virginia Commonwealth and Vanderbilt show that the Mountaineers are as good as other teams gunning for an at-large berth in the NCAA tournament.

What Not to Like: ASU was thumped by 30 at Clemson, and by 32 in Blacksburg at the hands of Virginia Tech.

What Will Help Them: Three things-- Vanderbilt's continued success, Virginia Tech advancing deep into the ACC tournament, and Winthrop winning the Big South. With the Eagles winning their tournament, that saves one an at-large for a hopeful.

Vitals: 61 RPI, 15-3 in conference, 77 S-Curve, 8-2 in their last ten games, road win at Wichita State in the Bracket Busters.

Verdict: NIT. By not advancing to the finals of their conference, consider them as good as gone from the Big Dance. Quality wins aside, ASU needed to truly take advantage of their conference tournament to show America and the committee what they were made of. Unfortunately, they're made of hosting a first round game in the NIT, and then travelling to a power conference foe for the second round.

(posted by JH)

Got Cred?

Here's my breakdown of the NCAA tournament, using my highly scienfific method of looking at the conference standings, schedules, and RPI ratings. This projection is based upon the one bid leagues, such as C-USA, the WAC and the Horizon league being won by their listed squads. If not, then teams like Clemson, West Virginia, Tennessee, Illinois, Arizona, and Missouri State will be sweating like Italians before the day ends.

The Field of 65

America East (1): Conference champion
Atlantic 10 (1): Conference champion
ACC (7): North Carolina, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Boston College, Duke, Maryland, Clemson
Atlantic Sun (1): Conference champion
Big 12 (6): Kansas, Texas A&M, Texas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech
Big East (7): Pittsburgh, Georgetown, Louisville, Notre dame, Marquette, West Virginia, Villanova
Big Sky (1): Conference champion
Big South (1): Winthrop
Big Ten (5): Wisconsin, Ohio State, Indiana, Michigan State, Illinois
Big West (1): Conference champion
CAA (1): Conference champion
Conference USA (1): Memphis
Horizon (1): Butler
Ivy (1): Conference champion
MAAC (1): Conference champion
Mid-Continent (1): Conference champion
MAC (1): Conference champion
MEAC (1): Conference champion
MVC (3): Southern Illinois, Creighton, Missouri State
MWC (3): Air Force, BYU, UNLV
NEC (1): Conference champion
OVC (1): Conference champion
Pac-10 (6): UCLA, Washington State, USC, Stanford, Oregon, Arizona,
Patriot (1): Conference champion
SEC (5): Florida, Vanderbillt, Kentucky, Alabama, Tennessee
Southern (1): Conference champion
Southland (1): Conference champion
SWAC (1): Conference champion
Sun Belt (1): Conference champion
WCC (1): Conference champion
WAC (1): Nevada

On the Bubble:

Bradley (RPI 29): Why down on the Braves? Bradley was hammered by bubble team Michigan State by 29 in December, lost by 21 to Wichita State and have yet to beat the three best teams in the MVC-- Missouri State, Southern Illionois or Creighton. They did beat Virginia Commonwealth, but that win is looking less impressive as VCU's profile continues to sag.

Old Dominion (RPI 44): The Monarchs have no more key games remaining in the regular season, facing middle of the pack Towson and William & Mary. Neither team is to be underestimated (8-8 in the CAA), but neither win will help their profile. In order for ODU to make the tournament as an at-large, they would need to have a dominating performance in the CAA tournament, and lose by one in the finals.

Georgia Tech (RPI 45): The worst enemy for the Yellow Jackets is their incompetence within the conference. Despite picking up a key win at Memphis and at home against Duke, Georgia Tech has failed to capitalize against tourney bound teams Maryland, Virginia Tech, and Clemson. In order to boost their profile, Tech needs to sweep Virginia, UNC and Boston College to get moved into the lock category. As of right now, Clemson and Maryland sit above them by virtue of beating the Yellow Jackets two out of three times they've matched up.

Georgia (RPI 54): The skinny is that the Dawgs didn't take care of business in a four game stretch against Georgia Tech, Clemson, Wisconsin, and Florida. Look for Georgia to get overlooked, barring a run to the SEC title game. If they do make the tournament, however, keep them in your mind as a team that can spring an upset. Levi Stukes has a deadly three point stroke, shooting 43.7% from distance this season.

DePaul (RPI 56): Approaching that coveted .500/one game better than .500 mark is DePaul, who overcame a slow start this season (including losses to Northwestern, Purdue, and UAB) to knock off likely NCAA teams Notre Dame and Marquette. DePaul gets another shot at Notre Dame tonight (in progress), but needs to win this game, as well as two games in the Big East tournament to make their case stronger.

UPDATE: The Blue Demons were destroyed by Notre Dame tonight, further lowering their chances for an at-large.

VCU (RPI 57): Oddly, the best team in the Colonial has a weaker profile than Old Dominion. The Rams are plauged by a a poor early season schedule, losing two games to possible tournament teams Appalachian State and Xavier, and a Bracket Buster game againt Bradley, who will likely miss the tournament this year.

Michigan (RPI 58): The Wolverines have the same story as everybody else on this bubble watch-- lack of marquee wins. I don't think a team who got drilled by 37 by UCLA is ever going to be a tournament team. Best case is if the Wolverines can upset either Ohio State or Wisconsin, and manage to keep it close in the final. Other than that, welcome back to the NIT!

Gonzaga (RPI 71): There are teams with better computer numbers than Mark Few's team, but there are very few teams (bubble or otherwise) with the out of conference profile that they have managed to compile. Obviously, the arrest and subsequent suspension of Josh Heytvelt cripples this team, but there is a remote chance that the committee rewards this team for their work early on-- knocking down North Carolina and Texas. This, of course, is negated by their losses to Duke, Nevada and Virginia.

UPDATE: Heytvelt was charged with felony drug possession, meaning that the test completed by the state lab came back with definitive results. Say bye-bye to the 'Zags' at-large tournament hopes.

Winthrop (RPI 72): Craig Bradshaw and the Eagles almost knocked down Tennessee in the tournament last year, and gave UNC all they could handle in a neutral site game in Charlotte, played winnable games against Maryland and Wisconsin (lost by 11 and 3, respectively), with one bad loss to Texas A&M by 20. The good, is that they beat fellow bubbler Old Dominion in Norfolk by six. Why are they on the bubble with such a marginal profile? Personally, I'd throw them into the tournament over a lot of the middle of the pack power teams. And I will now jump off of my soapbox.

Updated at 10:10 pm, February 20

(posted by JH)

Life On The Bubble: Texas

The bubble. That's right, I said it. That's where you find the 'Horns, in my book. Contrary to what many major media outlets will have you believe, Texas (18-7, 8-3) is still far from a lock to dance in March. Are they going to get in? Probably. They're sitting in 3rd in the Big XII and they have the star-power. You think the money-hungry NCAAs doesn't want to showcase Kevin Durant in March? Dream on.

But... a closer look reveals a profile as shaky as many out there on the bubble. Who have they beaten? The victories over LSU, Arkansas and at Texas Tech don't carry nearly as much weight as people once thought they would. The beat Oklahoma State by 29 last night in Austin? Would that be the same Oklahoma State squad that is now 0-5 in true road games this year? Exactly. Couple that with the fact they've dropped numerous contests against other NCAA candidates - Michigan State, Gonzaga, Tennessee, Villanova, Kansas State - and you have yourself one hollow profile that's hiding behind its media hype.

While Bill Simmons may continue to sack-tickle Kevin Durant until you are convinced Texas is legit, I'll throw some numbers at you. Their RPI is at 54. Their strength of schedule sits at 87. The Longhorns are 2-6 against the RPI top-50. Bubble, bubble, bubble.

Sure, they have the phenomenal freshman 1-2 punch of Kevin Durant and DJ Augustin that, when clicking, can be one of the most difficult offenses to stop in the NCAAs. They've thrown up 100 four times this season. They've also lost two of those contests and have given up triple-digits one other time (@ Texas A&M). This team cannot defend. Period. Ken Pomeroy currently has them 101st in his defensive efficiency rankings. Want to know the three teams on either side of them? St. Joe's, East Tennessee State, Dayton, Northwestern, Indiana State and Ball State. Not quite the nation's elite. Until they learn how to guard, I'm not convinced this team can make it out of the first weekend in March.

Before then, however, they need to get in, which seems manageable enough. Contests at Baylor and hosting a struggling Texas Tech team should get them to 10 conference wins, which is impressive, before a gauntlet of a finish - at Oklahoma, vs. Texas A&M, at Kansas. I'll warn the 'Horns - don't slip up or else you may find yourselves having to get your marquee victory for your NCAA resume or you may just find yourselves handing over some awfully unimpressive numbers and breakouts to the committee.

-- RK

Life On The Bubble: Illinois

From one bubble team with a racially offensive mascot to the next, I hop across the bubble from FSU to my alma mater, Illinois.

The best case for Illinois (18-9, 6-6) might be that, when the dust settles, this turns out to be the fourth best team in the Big Ten. Sure, the committee will tell you it looks at individual profiles and does not consider conference affiliation, but I personally have a hard time believing that. All in all, Illinois may be helped more by the shortcomings of others (Michigan State's recent slide, Purdue's inability to get a marquee win in Columbus, Iowa's non-conference resume) than its own profile. As of today, respected bracketologist Joe Lunardi over at ESPN had moved Illinois into his field as the last team dancing with an at-large profile, which is odd because they slid from out of the field to in despite losing over the weekend in Bloomington.

This could be one of the most bland and boring profiles you will see out there, something that makes this a difficult case to discuss. There are no wins on the resume that jump out at you (best wins being Indiana and MSU at home, neutral over Bradley), yet there are no cringe-worthy losses on the slate either (worst loss at Michigan) -- something that seems unlikely to change before conference play closes out. Illinois sees home dates with Northwestern and Michigan and a trip to Penn State before a crucial showdown with the Hawkeyes in Iowa City to close the conference schedule.

The common opinion seems to be that 9-7 will have the Illini sweating bullets on Selection Sunday and 10-6 should have them firmly in. The scary thing is it's looking more and more like the Illini will see Iowa twice in a week (at Iowa on March 3 and then in the 4/5 game in the Big Ten quarters) before even getting a crack at stamping their dance card with a marquee W over the likes of a Wisconsin or Ohio State.

It's been an unusual year for fans down in the C-U and it would be quite the empty and odd feeling thumbing the sports pages for the Illini's NIT matchup instead of checking the listings for their 1st-round start time in the NCAAs. Hopefully, the committee will look favorably upon their numerous injuries (McBride, Randle, Frazier, Smith and Semreau have all missed large chunks of play this year) and their relatively strong computer numbers (41 in RPI, 17 in SOS through Sunday).

If the bubble bursts, I can't say I blame the committee. The Illini have definately had their share of chances, blowing second half leads in many of their losses and falling short time and again to get their staple win to hang their hats on. Until then, it's pins and needles for the orange and blue.

-- RK

(P.S. I forgot for a second google image searching "Bruce Weber" returns gay art. Fantastic.)