In defense of the Big Ten

Recently, my beloved Big Ten conference has come under quite some fire yet again for their play in basketball. Normally, I let this shit slide. Hell, sometimes it's even true (see: 2006 NCAA Tournament). In this case, I can't. I just can't. I won't sit idle as they are being torn apart left and right by a man who has probably logged less college basketball games in his life than I have in the past year. Not when he's (once again) wrong. Not when he carries the readership he does.

Of course, I am speaking of ESPN.com's Bill Simmons, who has attempted to tear the conference a new asshole with his smug and douchy attitude. Most recently, Billy proclaimed,

"Did I tell you or did I tell you? If that foul was called on Oden, there would
have been ZERO Big Ten teams in the Sweet 16. I love being right. It happens so
rarely. Anyway, don't fret, Big Ten fans -- you can still get your fix of
defense and fundamentals by watching the women's tournament."

First of all, everyone said the Big Ten was down this year. Hell, I'd even agree. It was a down year for the conference as a whole. They lost a bunch of experienced players from a year ago, which dragged the middle and lower halves of the conference down. The only teams that were supposed to be better this season (Ohio State and Wisconsin), were just that, sitting in the top-5 almost all year. What a bold prediction there, Bill! Secondly, you're about as right as you are about your gambling prowess. Let's examine...

Here I am going to list 5 conferences and their resumes from the last two weekends of play. I'm going to list their record alongside their "expected" wins. By this, I mean the number of games the teams within their conference should have won if the bracket was entirely chalked (1 beats 2, 2 beats 3, 8 beats 9, 4 beats 5, etc.).

Conference A: 7-7 record, 11 "expected" wins
Conference B: 7-5 record, 8 "expected" wins
Conference C: 8-5 record, 6 "expected" wins
Conference D: 7-4 record, 8 "expected" wins
Conference E: 10-5 record, 9 "expected" wins

Now, logically, if I had to place them in an order from "best" performance to "worst" performance, I'd be inclined to say E (best overall record plus game over expectations), C (good record, highest percentage above expectations), D and B (simply "meh" profiles), A (shat the bed). The respective conferences, you ask? E would be the Pacific-10, C would be the Big Ten, D would be the Big 12, B would be the Big East and A would be the Atlantic Coast.

Now let us rewind back a mere two weeks to March 12th. Your college basketball Nostradamus over at ESPN said,

"Most overrated conference: A tie between the Pac-10 and the Big Ten. So hard to
choose between these two. When you're watching dozens of games over the course
of five days, it's impossible not to notice the varying quality of play from
game to game... Anyway, watching all these games and comparing the conferences
to one another, I don't see how anyone who knows anything about basketball could
argue that the Pac-10 and Big Ten are better than the Big East, ACC or even the
Big 12 (my vote for "most underrated conference")."

You can't make this shit up, people. Brilliant work, William, you have outdone yourself once again. I didn't think it was possible for you to look any dumber, after proclaiming to be an NFL gambling expert and losing to your wife this season, but you somehow managed to succeed at the task at hand. Don't worry, I'll be sure to mail you one of those turd sandwiches you've been clamoring on about real soon.

It's okay, claim all you want about the Big Ten only sending 1 team to the Sweet Sixteen. The truth of the matter is they beat their competition when they were at their level (won both 8-9 match ups and their 7-10). Their lack of teams deep in the field is more of the result of their lesser talented teams (Indiana, Michigan State, Purdue) running into 2 Final Four teams and an Elite Eight (UCLA, UNC, Florida) than it was a lack of talent. Why? Each of those teams held their own very respectably before falling at the hands of some of the powerhouses. It should also warrant mentioning that perhaps no team in the field took a bigger injury than Wisconsin did with Brian Butch. I could go on and on about how this injury affected the scheme of their offense, but I won't. I'll simply state that the only team in the conference that did not meet or exceed seeding projections lost while heavily undermanned. Just saying...

So, Bill, next time you open your mouth, remember you don't know dick about the game. I look forward to your literary beejes of Durant in the NBA and to a day when college basketball no longer concerns you. Good riddance.

-- RK

In, Out, or In Between: ACC and Big East

ACC (locks: North Carolina, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Maryland, Duke)

Clemson

JH: I think that the Tigers are out as of right now. Looking at their non-conference schedule, it's hard to imagine a team with just one quality win in conference and wasn't tested before conference play should snag one of the coveted at-large spots. With that said, this team is at the very top of the bubble, due to knocking off Old Dominion and Appalachian State.

RK: Who'd have thought 17-0 would have you on the wrong side of the bubble? They stopped the tailspin this week and put themselves back in the discussion, but it's still a 4-9 record in their last 13 coupled with a relatively weak non-conference slate that has the Tigers needing an ACC run. I think they need wins over Florida State (elimination game) and North Carolina to get in, otherwise it's easy for the committee to dismiss them.

Georgia Tech

JH: In. They split the season series with Clemson, won at Memphis and beat UNC at home. They are 7-3 in their last ten heading into the ACC tournament, and will probably need to win two games to solidify their chances.

RK: Not only do I think this team is now a lock as long as they avoid the bad loss to Wake Forest, I think this is a serious contender for a sleeper in the NCAAs. The good wins are there for the Jackets, as is a .500 conference record. I think they just need one more to move to a lock.

Big East (locks: Georgetown, Pitt, Louisville, Notre Dame, Marquette)

Syracuse, West Virginia/Providence, DePaul/Villanova

JH: Essentially, the losers of the first round game should start marketing their first round NIT home game. All of these teams have similar profiles, with West Virginia and DePaul having the most glamourous out of conference wins (UCLA and Kansas, respectively). With a first-round win, I would put WVU and DePaul in the tournament with no questions asked, Villanova would be on a firmer bubble, whereas Providence would have to probably win two games to supplement their weak profile.

RK: With the victory this weekend, I'd actually throw Nova closer to the lock field and keep the Cuse on the bubble. Why? Syracuse had a weak in-conference schedule (something the committee says it looks at...) and played nobody (as usual) before the Big East. They even lost a few times in the Dome in pre-conference (Wichita State and Drexel) and the computer numbers aren't all there, with an RPI of 50 and SOS at 49. I'm not as quick with DePaul and think they need at least a second victory over G'Town to be seriously discussed. Yes, they beat Kansas, but that gets offset with the losses to Northwestern and UAB. Yuck.

Tourney File: Virginia Tech

Here is the second of a periodic breakdown of teams expected to be in the NCAA Tournament

Virginia Tech

What to Like: Team basketball. The Hokies have good players; maybe even great players, but what separates this team from, say Virginia, is that there is never an instance while watching them on television that would make you say "Wow, [insert player name]is taking a lot of bad shots". Last night against UNC, Zabian Dowdell may have scored 33 points, but he did so in 41 minutes, on fifteen shots from the floor and an impressive 17-19 from the foul line. Five Hokies took more than ten shots, which means that they're spreading the ball around the floor.

What to be Pleasantly Surprised By: Coach Seth Greenberg, who has come into a football school, and created a top notch basketball program in arguably the best basketball conference in the game

What Will Keep Them From Winning: Depth. This is not a deep team, and could hurt them in the tournament if they ever run into foul trouble on the perimeter. Compounding their depth issues, they are also very young on the bench, getting significant minutes from four sophomores and freshmen.

What We Don't Know: If their good fortune can last. Dowdell is the leader of this team, and their tourney hopes delicately are balanced on his health and strong play.

X-Factor: Sophomore A.D. Vasallo. In four games at UNC (2-10 from the floor last night), at GW (2-6 threes) at Western Michigan (1-6 from distance), at Marshall (0-4 from three point), the Hokies won only one game, and lost the others by a margin of three or fewer points. In their loss against Southern Illinois, Vasallo shot 2-6 from long range as they lost by five.

Who Do They Want to Play?: North Carolina and Kansas. Virginia Tech has proven twice that they can slow down the pace at will, and grind it out with the best of teams who rely on talent, more so than a system of sorts to win games.

Who Don't They Want to Play?: Texas A&M and Ohio State. The Aggies are showing up a lot as a team that teams do not want to face in the tournament, and it's because of their defense. Acie Law is the kind of player who can put some kind of clamps on Dowdell, who is the Hokies' catalyst on offense. Ohio State would cause tremendous matchup problems for VT, since the Buckeyes can limit penetration with Greg Oden anchoring the lane.

Prediction: Anywhere from a four to a six seed. The Hokies still have a lot of work to do (hosting BC and Clemson, travelling to Virginia), but the true challenges are games against NC State and Miami. I wouldn't fault them for losing to Virginia at the John Paul Jones Center, but they need to take care of business at home, against the bubbling Wolfpack and the bottom feeder Hurricanes.

Breaking Down the ACC Action 2/10

Wake Forest (RPI 135) @ North Carolina (RPI 2)- Has the whole world gone crazy? Wake Forest a football school? They would be play in game bound in the old days. The world is off its axis with FSU, Virginia Tech, and Clemson looking like legit tourney teams. When is the real heat going to turn on Skip Prosser? His teams have been bottom feeders since the Chris Paul gravy train departed Winston-Salem.

The Heels have shown some youthful inconsistency on the road, but they are the most talented team in the country. When this team comes to play, they can’t be touched.

Matchup to watch: Kyle Visser vs. Tyler Hansborough and Brendan Wright. It’s two against one. Visser has been the only player to consistently bring it for Wake. Look for Visser to pick a few quick whistles as the onslaught begins.

Prediction: This one is over in warm ups. Heels big.

Virginia (RPI 31) @ Virginia Tech (RPI 35)- An exciting matchup with implications in the ACC race. Both teams are probably safely, but this one is huge for the Hokies. They have been leaking oil after a hot start with three straight conference losses. If this team continues, their two sub 150 RPI losses could come back to haunt them on selection Sunday.

On the other hand, UVA has caught fire after the debacle in Puerto Rico. They know who their horses are in JR Reynolds and Sean Singeltary. This teams confidence is through the roof right now after the Clemson comeback. That is a momentum boost that a team can ride deep into March.

Matchup to watch: Tywon Lawson and Wayne Ellington may be the future, but the two best backcourts in the ACC are going to be on display in Blacksburg. Singeltary/Reynolds vs. Dowdell/Gordon will be one too watch.

Prediction: VPI in a close one to end the Hoos winning streak.

NC State (RPI 105) @ Miami (RPI 171)- If the Wolfpack have any intention of making a move towards the bubble, this one is the first of many must wins. Sidney Lowe looks to have the Wolfpack in the right direction and with Atsur (What is this, his 9th year?) back healthy. They have the talent to beat anyone in the conference.

The Canes have to be ready to pack this season in. It started off on a bad note with Frank Haith’s personal tragedy and never got better. This season was over before Christmas as they picked up losses to Buffalo (RPI 221), Cleveland State (RPI 278), and Bighampton (RPI 279). Miami has been decimated by injuries and will only suit up two players over 6’3 tommorow.

Matchup to watch: NC State’s frontcourt of Brendan Costner, Gavin Grant, and Ben McCauley vs. Miami’s depleted bunch. NCSU’s trio goes 6’8, 6’9, 6’10 and combine to average 47.7 PPG and 19.8 RPG. This matchup could get ugly with some quick fouls. Miami just doesn’t have the size.

Prediction: Miami fights hard for a half at home, but they’re outmanned after the intermission. NC State picks up a road win and hangs onto its dance hopes by a thread.

-PS