Showing posts with label Big XII. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Big XII. Show all posts

Monday, March 26, 2007

In defense of the Big Ten

Recently, my beloved Big Ten conference has come under quite some fire yet again for their play in basketball. Normally, I let this shit slide. Hell, sometimes it's even true (see: 2006 NCAA Tournament). In this case, I can't. I just can't. I won't sit idle as they are being torn apart left and right by a man who has probably logged less college basketball games in his life than I have in the past year. Not when he's (once again) wrong. Not when he carries the readership he does.

Of course, I am speaking of ESPN.com's Bill Simmons, who has attempted to tear the conference a new asshole with his smug and douchy attitude. Most recently, Billy proclaimed,

"Did I tell you or did I tell you? If that foul was called on Oden, there would
have been ZERO Big Ten teams in the Sweet 16. I love being right. It happens so
rarely. Anyway, don't fret, Big Ten fans -- you can still get your fix of
defense and fundamentals by watching the women's tournament."

First of all, everyone said the Big Ten was down this year. Hell, I'd even agree. It was a down year for the conference as a whole. They lost a bunch of experienced players from a year ago, which dragged the middle and lower halves of the conference down. The only teams that were supposed to be better this season (Ohio State and Wisconsin), were just that, sitting in the top-5 almost all year. What a bold prediction there, Bill! Secondly, you're about as right as you are about your gambling prowess. Let's examine...

Here I am going to list 5 conferences and their resumes from the last two weekends of play. I'm going to list their record alongside their "expected" wins. By this, I mean the number of games the teams within their conference should have won if the bracket was entirely chalked (1 beats 2, 2 beats 3, 8 beats 9, 4 beats 5, etc.).

Conference A: 7-7 record, 11 "expected" wins
Conference B: 7-5 record, 8 "expected" wins
Conference C: 8-5 record, 6 "expected" wins
Conference D: 7-4 record, 8 "expected" wins
Conference E: 10-5 record, 9 "expected" wins

Now, logically, if I had to place them in an order from "best" performance to "worst" performance, I'd be inclined to say E (best overall record plus game over expectations), C (good record, highest percentage above expectations), D and B (simply "meh" profiles), A (shat the bed). The respective conferences, you ask? E would be the Pacific-10, C would be the Big Ten, D would be the Big 12, B would be the Big East and A would be the Atlantic Coast.


Now let us rewind back a mere two weeks to March 12th. Your college basketball Nostradamus over at ESPN said,

"Most overrated conference: A tie between the Pac-10 and the Big Ten. So hard to
choose between these two. When you're watching dozens of games over the course
of five days, it's impossible not to notice the varying quality of play from
game to game... Anyway, watching all these games and comparing the conferences
to one another, I don't see how anyone who knows anything about basketball could
argue that the Pac-10 and Big Ten are better than the Big East, ACC or even the
Big 12 (my vote for "most underrated conference")."

You can't make this shit up, people. Brilliant work, William, you have outdone yourself once again. I didn't think it was possible for you to look any dumber, after proclaiming to be an NFL gambling expert and losing to your wife this season, but you somehow managed to succeed at the task at hand. Don't worry, I'll be sure to mail you one of those turd sandwiches you've been clamoring on about real soon.

It's okay, claim all you want about the Big Ten only sending 1 team to the Sweet Sixteen. The truth of the matter is they beat their competition when they were at their level (won both 8-9 match ups and their 7-10). Their lack of teams deep in the field is more of the result of their lesser talented teams (Indiana, Michigan State, Purdue) running into 2 Final Four teams and an Elite Eight (UCLA, UNC, Florida) than it was a lack of talent. Why? Each of those teams held their own very respectably before falling at the hands of some of the powerhouses. It should also warrant mentioning that perhaps no team in the field took a bigger injury than Wisconsin did with Brian Butch. I could go on and on about how this injury affected the scheme of their offense, but I won't. I'll simply state that the only team in the conference that did not meet or exceed seeding projections lost while heavily undermanned. Just saying...

So, Bill, next time you open your mouth, remember you don't know dick about the game. I look forward to your literary beejes of Durant in the NBA and to a day when college basketball no longer concerns you. Good riddance.

-- RK

Tuesday, February 13, 2007

Life On The Bubble: Texas

The bubble. That's right, I said it. That's where you find the 'Horns, in my book. Contrary to what many major media outlets will have you believe, Texas (18-7, 8-3) is still far from a lock to dance in March. Are they going to get in? Probably. They're sitting in 3rd in the Big XII and they have the star-power. You think the money-hungry NCAAs doesn't want to showcase Kevin Durant in March? Dream on.

But... a closer look reveals a profile as shaky as many out there on the bubble. Who have they beaten? The victories over LSU, Arkansas and at Texas Tech don't carry nearly as much weight as people once thought they would. The beat Oklahoma State by 29 last night in Austin? Would that be the same Oklahoma State squad that is now 0-5 in true road games this year? Exactly. Couple that with the fact they've dropped numerous contests against other NCAA candidates - Michigan State, Gonzaga, Tennessee, Villanova, Kansas State - and you have yourself one hollow profile that's hiding behind its media hype.

While Bill Simmons may continue to sack-tickle Kevin Durant until you are convinced Texas is legit, I'll throw some numbers at you. Their RPI is at 54. Their strength of schedule sits at 87. The Longhorns are 2-6 against the RPI top-50. Bubble, bubble, bubble.

Sure, they have the phenomenal freshman 1-2 punch of Kevin Durant and DJ Augustin that, when clicking, can be one of the most difficult offenses to stop in the NCAAs. They've thrown up 100 four times this season. They've also lost two of those contests and have given up triple-digits one other time (@ Texas A&M). This team cannot defend. Period. Ken Pomeroy currently has them 101st in his defensive efficiency rankings. Want to know the three teams on either side of them? St. Joe's, East Tennessee State, Dayton, Northwestern, Indiana State and Ball State. Not quite the nation's elite. Until they learn how to guard, I'm not convinced this team can make it out of the first weekend in March.

Before then, however, they need to get in, which seems manageable enough. Contests at Baylor and hosting a struggling Texas Tech team should get them to 10 conference wins, which is impressive, before a gauntlet of a finish - at Oklahoma, vs. Texas A&M, at Kansas. I'll warn the 'Horns - don't slip up or else you may find yourselves having to get your marquee victory for your NCAA resume or you may just find yourselves handing over some awfully unimpressive numbers and breakouts to the committee.

-- RK