The Unpredictables

Every year there's a team that's wildly inconsistent all year and somehow manages to get its shit together come March and makes a run. Or the squad that heads into the Big Dance streaking and craps out unexpectedly the first weekend. These are the teams that make or break your bracket and bust your ass every year. To me, they're the hardest to predict. With that, I'll take a journey across the nation breaking down these candidates from each of the power conferences...

Atlantic Coast - Maryland

You could almost see most peoples eyes lighting up when talking about this team. The Terps came into the ACCs absolutely smoking, winners of 7 straight including doubling down on the Dookies and taking out the Tar Heels, before crapping the bed last night against Miami. There was almost a Fight Club-esque feel to this team in that everyone seems to like them, but everyone wanted them to stay a secret. Mission accomplished for me. I still like Maryland to do some major damage in the NCAAs and will be thrilled to see the bandwagon emptying after it crashed in Tampa.

Big East - Marquette

Marquette came into February as a big player at the top of the Big East. They have been nationally ranked all season and have been picked to go to the Final Four by multiple experts. But the Golden Eagles have struggled mightily as of late, going just 3-5 in their last 8. One of the reasons has been the cold shooting of star guard Dominic James, who is shooting a miserable 27.6% from the field since February while taking a good chunk of shots (12.7 per game over that stretch). He'll need to turn things around if Marquette wants to see past the first weekend.

Southeastern - Florida

This is more of a lifetime acheivement award because I've been dicked over by Billy Donovan too many times in March. Since the run to the title game as a 5-seed in 2000, the Gators had seen numerous disappointing first-weekend knock outs before winning the title last season. They've returned the nucleus of last year's squad and came into the season as favorites to repeat, but have fallen upon hard times as of late, losing to the likes of Vanderbuilt and LSU on the road. The Gators this season represent what the NCAAs have become - a tournament of unpredictability and parity. Can you say with confidence that any of the 1 or 2 seeds will make the trip to Atlanta? Do any of these teams really separate themselves from the rest of the pack?

Big Ten - Wisconsin

Is there a top-10 team people were talking about less as a contender to win the title? It seems people are discounting the Badgers as being one of the nation's elite. Many seemed to be talking of a trip to the Final Four, but I haven't heard much talk of winning it all. The recent injury (and uncertainty over the severity of the injury) to center Brian Butch only further clouds the picture. I forsee Wisconsin being a team a lot of people have circled for that popular early-round exit next week, but I like the make-up of the Badgers. They play very solid defense, have the star go-to scorer in the crunch time, have a strong senior point guard and will likely be playing in a favorable venue (Chicago) the first weekend - all things that tend to correlate positively with NCAA success. I expect the nation to be adding a chip to their shoulder soon, as well.

Big XII - Kansas

I'd like to stray away from the top-seeds in this discussion, but this one is inevitable. History is on their side as well, with recent first-round stumbles against the highly-underdogged Bucknell and Bradley teams of the past two tournaments. How good are the Jayhawks? It's a question I've been wondering for a while now. They've been absolutely killing teams recently, but it's been against their weak Big XII North competition. What's been concerning is that in their contests against the rest of the cream of the conference they've lost to Texas A&M (at home), lost to Texas Tech (on the road) and narrowly beat Texas (at home) behind a furious second-half rally. This team has world's of potential and wouldn't surprise me in the least if they cut down the nets in Atlanta, but some of their losses have been frightening.

Pacific-10 - Arizona

The computers absolutely love this team due to their strength of schedule, but the bottom line is Arizona has been a .500 team since the new year. One thing that's interesting is that the Cats took their last 5 road games in conference (very impressive), which isn't pointed out much due to the home sweep it took at the hands of the So. Cal schools. It's another team loaded with talented McD's All-Americans that can kill you in a multitude of ways of the offensive end of the floor. They tend to stuggle defensively, but will be a glam pick next week because of their name recognition and their conference affiliation and the perceived strength of that conference.

-- RK

Tourney File: Maryland

Here is the fourth of a periodic breakdown of teams expected to be in the NCAA Tournament

Maryland

What to Like: Grevias Vasquez and Eric Hayes. Neither freshman point guard is ready to carry the load by themselves at this point. They have complimentary playing styles with Vasquez the scoring, flashy type and Hayes serving in the mold of Steve Blake. Next year, I would not be surprised to see Maryland go back to the two point guard styled offense it ran during Steve Blake and Drew Nicholas' senior years, as they have a core of those two, Bambale Osby (more on him in a second) and James Gist.

What to Be Pleasantly Surprised By: Mike Jones finally playing like an All-American. Highly rated out of high school, Jones has been nothing but disappointment, as he had to compete with John Gilchrist and Nik Caner-Medley for touches in the past. This year, however, he seems rejuvenated with two real point guards getting quality minutes. Jones single-handedly crippled North Carolina last weekend, but will be overlooked when the ACC votes on it's awards this season.

What Will Keep Them From Winning: Maryland does not have a consistent outside shooter who they can truly rely on to keep teams from playing zone defense against them. Eric Hayes is their best shooter by percentage, but is usually a non-factor when it comes to scoring. D.J. Strawberry is a streak shooter who can knock down a few, but they lack a Juan Dixon type of shooter to stretch the opposition.

What We Don't Know: Maryland is on a torrid winning streak, and one has to wonder if they can keep it up for an extended period of time.

X-Factor: Bambale Osby, a transfer who sat last season out. Instead of relying on Will Bowers (who can be best described as a slower and less offensively skilled Aaron Gray), Gary Williams has an energy guy who can rebound, defend, and contribute with an occasional bucket or two. Osby was huge in last night's win against the Blue Devils, snaring down nine rebounds and blocking a shot in just thirteen minutes.

Who Do They Want to Play: Wisconsin, Air Force, and Butler. The Falcons and the Bulldogs are two teams that are not athletic enough to cover the Terps on the perimeter, and would have a tough time with their defense on the other end. Maryland has a premier defensive stopper in D.J. Strawberry, making Alando Tucker work as hard as he did against Ohio State to get his shots off.

Who Don't They Want to Play: Florida and Texas A&M would give Maryland fits because of their superior point guard play. Neither Vasquez or Hayes are ready to take on players of the caliber of Taurean Green and Acie Law in the Big Dance. Both players are too accomplished to be upstaged by guys who were wrapping up their high school careers a year ago.

Prediction: Fifth to seventh seed. At this point in the season, I believe Maryland is the third best team in the ACC behind probably #1 seed UNC and probable fifth seed Virginia Tech. Depending on how much the committee weighs the past three weeks, it could put the Terps as a low five, or a high six or seven.