The Unpredictables

Every year there's a team that's wildly inconsistent all year and somehow manages to get its shit together come March and makes a run. Or the squad that heads into the Big Dance streaking and craps out unexpectedly the first weekend. These are the teams that make or break your bracket and bust your ass every year. To me, they're the hardest to predict. With that, I'll take a journey across the nation breaking down these candidates from each of the power conferences...

Atlantic Coast - Maryland

You could almost see most peoples eyes lighting up when talking about this team. The Terps came into the ACCs absolutely smoking, winners of 7 straight including doubling down on the Dookies and taking out the Tar Heels, before crapping the bed last night against Miami. There was almost a Fight Club-esque feel to this team in that everyone seems to like them, but everyone wanted them to stay a secret. Mission accomplished for me. I still like Maryland to do some major damage in the NCAAs and will be thrilled to see the bandwagon emptying after it crashed in Tampa.

Big East - Marquette

Marquette came into February as a big player at the top of the Big East. They have been nationally ranked all season and have been picked to go to the Final Four by multiple experts. But the Golden Eagles have struggled mightily as of late, going just 3-5 in their last 8. One of the reasons has been the cold shooting of star guard Dominic James, who is shooting a miserable 27.6% from the field since February while taking a good chunk of shots (12.7 per game over that stretch). He'll need to turn things around if Marquette wants to see past the first weekend.

Southeastern - Florida

This is more of a lifetime acheivement award because I've been dicked over by Billy Donovan too many times in March. Since the run to the title game as a 5-seed in 2000, the Gators had seen numerous disappointing first-weekend knock outs before winning the title last season. They've returned the nucleus of last year's squad and came into the season as favorites to repeat, but have fallen upon hard times as of late, losing to the likes of Vanderbuilt and LSU on the road. The Gators this season represent what the NCAAs have become - a tournament of unpredictability and parity. Can you say with confidence that any of the 1 or 2 seeds will make the trip to Atlanta? Do any of these teams really separate themselves from the rest of the pack?

Big Ten - Wisconsin

Is there a top-10 team people were talking about less as a contender to win the title? It seems people are discounting the Badgers as being one of the nation's elite. Many seemed to be talking of a trip to the Final Four, but I haven't heard much talk of winning it all. The recent injury (and uncertainty over the severity of the injury) to center Brian Butch only further clouds the picture. I forsee Wisconsin being a team a lot of people have circled for that popular early-round exit next week, but I like the make-up of the Badgers. They play very solid defense, have the star go-to scorer in the crunch time, have a strong senior point guard and will likely be playing in a favorable venue (Chicago) the first weekend - all things that tend to correlate positively with NCAA success. I expect the nation to be adding a chip to their shoulder soon, as well.

Big XII - Kansas

I'd like to stray away from the top-seeds in this discussion, but this one is inevitable. History is on their side as well, with recent first-round stumbles against the highly-underdogged Bucknell and Bradley teams of the past two tournaments. How good are the Jayhawks? It's a question I've been wondering for a while now. They've been absolutely killing teams recently, but it's been against their weak Big XII North competition. What's been concerning is that in their contests against the rest of the cream of the conference they've lost to Texas A&M (at home), lost to Texas Tech (on the road) and narrowly beat Texas (at home) behind a furious second-half rally. This team has world's of potential and wouldn't surprise me in the least if they cut down the nets in Atlanta, but some of their losses have been frightening.

Pacific-10 - Arizona

The computers absolutely love this team due to their strength of schedule, but the bottom line is Arizona has been a .500 team since the new year. One thing that's interesting is that the Cats took their last 5 road games in conference (very impressive), which isn't pointed out much due to the home sweep it took at the hands of the So. Cal schools. It's another team loaded with talented McD's All-Americans that can kill you in a multitude of ways of the offensive end of the floor. They tend to stuggle defensively, but will be a glam pick next week because of their name recognition and their conference affiliation and the perceived strength of that conference.

-- RK

Tourney File: Kansas

Here is the fifth of a periodic breakdown of teams expected to be in the NCAA Tournament

Kansas

It's time to start hammering out some of the top seeds and favorites in this year's NCAA draw and I'll start with the Jayhawks.

What to Like: Sheer talent. This is a team loaded with 5-star recruits that have NBA scouts salivating over their pro potential. Kansas has 5 players located in the top 60 of Chad Ford's Top 100 NBA Prospects on ESPN.com (Julian Wright, Darrell Arthur, Brandon Rush, Mario Chalmers and Sherron Collins) and two of them come off the bench of this team. The Jayhawks are stacked and deep and can beat you in multiple ways.

What to be Pleasantly Surprised By: Defense. Many times with blue chip prospects, there's selfishness and lapses on the defensive end of the floor. Not so with the Jayhawks, who are presently ranked 1st in the nation in raw and adjusted defensive efficiency. This team can D you up and it starts with the starting guards locking down the perimeter. Chalmers is a thief of the defensive end, averaging 2.6 steals per game (good for 10th in the nation, 2nd among power conferences) and his counterpart Russell Robinson chips in with 1.9 per game.

What Will Keep Them From Winning: Free throws and inexperience. Kansas struggles at 240th in the nation in free throw percentage. Although none of their key players are horrific, only Chalmers and Collins top the 70%-clip and neither of those two is money in the bank at the line. While many think this might be the best team in the nation right now, this is still a young group of kids that lost to two teams who may not even see the NCAAs (DePaul and Oral Roberts), raising questions of inexperience and inconsistency.

What We Don't Know: Will Kansas be ready to step up to the big boys come March? I'm sorry, I'm just not sold yet on Kansas being a legitimate title contender and that all comes down to their schedule. Yes, they are absolutely running teams out of the gym lately, but who have they beaten in this calendar year? Playing in the Big XII North, KU gets its share of cupcakes and has thus far lost its games against the top of the South division (@ Texas Tech, vs. Texas A&M; the Jayhawks do host Texas on Saturday). It's best wins in 2007? A 2-point win at Oklahoma and a 9-point win at Kansas State. Doesn't tell me much. Plus, Bill Self has a monkey on his back after back-to-back upset exits in the NCAA first-round.

X-Factor: Sherron Collins. The star freshman point guard out of Chicago has started to put his name into the realm of other great freshman points across the nation recently. He's gone from being a virtual non-factor in some of KU's bigger non-conference games (scoreless in 7 minutes at Florida and in 9 minutes against Boston College) to stealing some of starting guard Russell Robinson's court time in Big XII play. He's hit double-digits in 12 of their 15 conference games and has provided a real spark off the Kansas bench, giving the Jayhawks exceptional depth in the backcourt.

Who Do They Want to Play?: North Carolina, Maryland, Marquette. The more you increase the number of possessions in a game, the more likely it is that the averages will play out and a predicted outcome occurs. Kansas hasn't been bothered by up-tempo play this year in games against Missouri, Oklahoma State and USC. They play solidly each possession on both sides of the ball and have an enormous amount of talent to overmatch many of their opponents.

Who Don't They Want to Play?: Georgetown, Washington State, Southern Illinois, Air Force. In their 4 losses, the pace of play has been 66 possessions per game. Out of their nine slowest-paced games, Kansas dropped 3 of them. Compare that to just a shade under 70 in their 26 wins and you have yourself a way to beat Kansas. Although this team excels on the defensive floor, opponents will want to keep the game within reach and hope the inexperience and free throw shooting woes can haunt the Jayhawks down the stretch of a tight ballgame.

Prediction: The Jayhawks are probably looking at a two seed this year, but could slip up or down a seed line based on the results of their matchup with Texas on Saturday and their play in the Big XII Tournament. A lot of people might see another early exit, given their recent history and Bill Self's uninspiring track record, but I don't see it that way. I can't see this team stumbling in the opening weekend and have to recognize them as a legitimate favorite to make the Final Four. They've been smoking the competition lately, but I will be keeping a close eye on how they end the year against quality, tournament-worthy opponents. I really think they need another crack at the Aggies in the conference tournament season to get set for March.


-- RK