Every year there's a team that's wildly inconsistent all year and somehow manages to get its shit together come March and makes a run. Or the squad that heads into the Big Dance streaking and craps out unexpectedly the first weekend. These are the teams that make or break your bracket and bust your ass every year. To me, they're the hardest to predict. With that, I'll take a journey across the nation breaking down these candidates from each of the power conferences...
Atlantic Coast - Maryland
You could almost see most peoples eyes lighting up when talking about this team. The Terps came into the ACCs absolutely smoking, winners of 7 straight including doubling down on the Dookies and taking out the Tar Heels, before crapping the bed last night against Miami. There was almost a Fight Club-esque feel to this team in that everyone seems to like them, but everyone wanted them to stay a secret. Mission accomplished for me. I still like Maryland to do some major damage in the NCAAs and will be thrilled to see the bandwagon emptying after it crashed in Tampa.
Big East - Marquette
Marquette came into February as a big player at the top of the Big East. They have been nationally ranked all season and have been picked to go to the Final Four by multiple experts. But the Golden Eagles have struggled mightily as of late, going just 3-5 in their last 8. One of the reasons has been the cold shooting of star guard Dominic James, who is shooting a miserable 27.6% from the field since February while taking a good chunk of shots (12.7 per game over that stretch). He'll need to turn things around if Marquette wants to see past the first weekend.
Southeastern - Florida
This is more of a lifetime acheivement award because I've been dicked over by Billy Donovan too many times in March. Since the run to the title game as a 5-seed in 2000, the Gators had seen numerous disappointing first-weekend knock outs before winning the title last season. They've returned the nucleus of last year's squad and came into the season as favorites to repeat, but have fallen upon hard times as of late, losing to the likes of Vanderbuilt and LSU on the road. The Gators this season represent what the NCAAs have become - a tournament of unpredictability and parity. Can you say with confidence that any of the 1 or 2 seeds will make the trip to Atlanta? Do any of these teams really separate themselves from the rest of the pack?
Big Ten - Wisconsin
Is there a top-10 team people were talking about less as a contender to win the title? It seems people are discounting the Badgers as being one of the nation's elite. Many seemed to be talking of a trip to the Final Four, but I haven't heard much talk of winning it all. The recent injury (and uncertainty over the severity of the injury) to center Brian Butch only further clouds the picture. I forsee Wisconsin being a team a lot of people have circled for that popular early-round exit next week, but I like the make-up of the Badgers. They play very solid defense, have the star go-to scorer in the crunch time, have a strong senior point guard and will likely be playing in a favorable venue (Chicago) the first weekend - all things that tend to correlate positively with NCAA success. I expect the nation to be adding a chip to their shoulder soon, as well.
Big XII - Kansas
I'd like to stray away from the top-seeds in this discussion, but this one is inevitable. History is on their side as well, with recent first-round stumbles against the highly-underdogged Bucknell and Bradley teams of the past two tournaments. How good are the Jayhawks? It's a question I've been wondering for a while now. They've been absolutely killing teams recently, but it's been against their weak Big XII North competition. What's been concerning is that in their contests against the rest of the cream of the conference they've lost to Texas A&M (at home), lost to Texas Tech (on the road) and narrowly beat Texas (at home) behind a furious second-half rally. This team has world's of potential and wouldn't surprise me in the least if they cut down the nets in Atlanta, but some of their losses have been frightening.
Pacific-10 - Arizona
The computers absolutely love this team due to their strength of schedule, but the bottom line is Arizona has been a .500 team since the new year. One thing that's interesting is that the Cats took their last 5 road games in conference (very impressive), which isn't pointed out much due to the home sweep it took at the hands of the So. Cal schools. It's another team loaded with talented McD's All-Americans that can kill you in a multitude of ways of the offensive end of the floor. They tend to stuggle defensively, but will be a glam pick next week because of their name recognition and their conference affiliation and the perceived strength of that conference.
-- RK
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