Tourney File: Kansas

Here is the fifth of a periodic breakdown of teams expected to be in the NCAA Tournament

Kansas

It's time to start hammering out some of the top seeds and favorites in this year's NCAA draw and I'll start with the Jayhawks.

What to Like: Sheer talent. This is a team loaded with 5-star recruits that have NBA scouts salivating over their pro potential. Kansas has 5 players located in the top 60 of Chad Ford's Top 100 NBA Prospects on ESPN.com (Julian Wright, Darrell Arthur, Brandon Rush, Mario Chalmers and Sherron Collins) and two of them come off the bench of this team. The Jayhawks are stacked and deep and can beat you in multiple ways.

What to be Pleasantly Surprised By: Defense. Many times with blue chip prospects, there's selfishness and lapses on the defensive end of the floor. Not so with the Jayhawks, who are presently ranked 1st in the nation in raw and adjusted defensive efficiency. This team can D you up and it starts with the starting guards locking down the perimeter. Chalmers is a thief of the defensive end, averaging 2.6 steals per game (good for 10th in the nation, 2nd among power conferences) and his counterpart Russell Robinson chips in with 1.9 per game.

What Will Keep Them From Winning: Free throws and inexperience. Kansas struggles at 240th in the nation in free throw percentage. Although none of their key players are horrific, only Chalmers and Collins top the 70%-clip and neither of those two is money in the bank at the line. While many think this might be the best team in the nation right now, this is still a young group of kids that lost to two teams who may not even see the NCAAs (DePaul and Oral Roberts), raising questions of inexperience and inconsistency.

What We Don't Know: Will Kansas be ready to step up to the big boys come March? I'm sorry, I'm just not sold yet on Kansas being a legitimate title contender and that all comes down to their schedule. Yes, they are absolutely running teams out of the gym lately, but who have they beaten in this calendar year? Playing in the Big XII North, KU gets its share of cupcakes and has thus far lost its games against the top of the South division (@ Texas Tech, vs. Texas A&M; the Jayhawks do host Texas on Saturday). It's best wins in 2007? A 2-point win at Oklahoma and a 9-point win at Kansas State. Doesn't tell me much. Plus, Bill Self has a monkey on his back after back-to-back upset exits in the NCAA first-round.

X-Factor: Sherron Collins. The star freshman point guard out of Chicago has started to put his name into the realm of other great freshman points across the nation recently. He's gone from being a virtual non-factor in some of KU's bigger non-conference games (scoreless in 7 minutes at Florida and in 9 minutes against Boston College) to stealing some of starting guard Russell Robinson's court time in Big XII play. He's hit double-digits in 12 of their 15 conference games and has provided a real spark off the Kansas bench, giving the Jayhawks exceptional depth in the backcourt.

Who Do They Want to Play?: North Carolina, Maryland, Marquette. The more you increase the number of possessions in a game, the more likely it is that the averages will play out and a predicted outcome occurs. Kansas hasn't been bothered by up-tempo play this year in games against Missouri, Oklahoma State and USC. They play solidly each possession on both sides of the ball and have an enormous amount of talent to overmatch many of their opponents.

Who Don't They Want to Play?: Georgetown, Washington State, Southern Illinois, Air Force. In their 4 losses, the pace of play has been 66 possessions per game. Out of their nine slowest-paced games, Kansas dropped 3 of them. Compare that to just a shade under 70 in their 26 wins and you have yourself a way to beat Kansas. Although this team excels on the defensive floor, opponents will want to keep the game within reach and hope the inexperience and free throw shooting woes can haunt the Jayhawks down the stretch of a tight ballgame.

Prediction: The Jayhawks are probably looking at a two seed this year, but could slip up or down a seed line based on the results of their matchup with Texas on Saturday and their play in the Big XII Tournament. A lot of people might see another early exit, given their recent history and Bill Self's uninspiring track record, but I don't see it that way. I can't see this team stumbling in the opening weekend and have to recognize them as a legitimate favorite to make the Final Four. They've been smoking the competition lately, but I will be keeping a close eye on how they end the year against quality, tournament-worthy opponents. I really think they need another crack at the Aggies in the conference tournament season to get set for March.


-- RK