Forget who's in and who's out for a minute. The hardest job the NCAA Selection committee has to do is ranking and seeding its included teams. More specifically, it's an absolute beast of a job to determine the postseason fate of the top mid-major (or should I say non-power conference?) teams. It's a job that everyone seems to have a wide range of opinions on, bringing enormous amounts of heat regardless of which way the committee leans. I'm looking at you, Billy Packer. Take the 1-seed St. Joe's was given in 2004 or the fluctuation in seeding Gonzaga has seen over recent years and placing these teams in the field is no easy task.
With that, I'm here to help the committee sort through some of this field. Here's a look at a handful of "other" schools that are comfortably in the tournament field even without an automatic invite.
Memphis
The resume: 26-3, 18 game win streak, RPI of 7 with SOS at 71. Undefeated in conference play, but just 1-3 against the RPI top-50 (5-3 against the top-100 however).
The verdict: I'd throw them a 4-seed, which would probably put me on the low end of the spectrum. Their winning streak dates back to before Christmas, but they've played all of 3 top-100 games in that time period. Conference-USA is a joke this year, with only Houston (at 97) joining the Tigers in the top-100 of the RPI. I know the computer numbers look nice, but I'm not really buying into it. Win out with others stumbling and I would consider a 3, but those putting them on the 2-seed line are out of their minds.
Southern Illinois
The resume: 24-5, 11 game win streak, RPI of 5 with SOS at 39. Finished MVC play at 15-3 as is 7-2 versus the RPI top-50 (and 12-4 against the top 100).
The verdict: Hovering right on the 2/3 line. Stack this profile next to Memphis' and tell me you want the Tigers seeded ahead of them. You can't. Perhaps I'm standing atop my Missouri Valley soapbox, but the conference is extremely deep and loaded at the bottom. There were zero easy wins in this league. The Salukis would benefit immensely from doubling down on Missouri Valley titles, but their shot at a 2-seed will most likely be the byproduct of teams ahead of them slipping up rather than their accomplishments leap-frogging the others.
Nevada
The resume: 25-3 with a 13-2 mark in the WAC, RPI of 22 with SOS at 125. The telling stat is their 0-1 record against the top-50, but they are 10-3 against the top-100. Looking at the schedule, they haven't beaten anyone in the top-70 currently.
The verdict: Their wins over Cal, Northern Iowa, Santa Clara and Gonzaga don't hold much weight anymore as all of those teams outside the WCC tourney winner don't figure to be dancing. With the loss last night to Utah State, Nevada will need to beat New Mexico State at home on Saturday to salvage even a split against both of their top WAC competition. It's a resume that's more troubling upon further inspection and breakdown and because of that, I'd award Nevada a 7-seed, if the tourney started today.
Winthrop
The resume: 23-4 after an undefeated (14-0) Big South campaign. The RPI sits at 69 with a pretty terrible SOS at 256. Winthrop is just 2-4 against the top-50 with another win against the 50-100 region and two over 100-200.
The verdict: I'd put the Eagles in the 8/9 game if they win the Big South championship game this weekend and still in the tourney (with absolutely no second thoughts) should they slip up. And that's with some restraint. I truly believe this is the giant killer in this years' field and hwo good this team is appears hidden under some weaker computer numbers. It's the conference numbers that hurt the profile, ranked as the 29th best conference in America. But the Eagles have some very nice wins against fellow mid-major powers Missouri State and Old Dominion and an ever-improving road victory at Mississippi State. I know the committee doesn't look at margin of victory, but their four losses came at the hands of UNC (by 7 in Greensboro), at Maryland (by 11), at Wisconsin (by 3 in OT) and at Texas A&M (by 20). There's not a single blemish on the schedule outside of those. This team is going to be an absolutely scary draw in a few weeks.
-- RK
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3 comments:
Pretty certain that Winthrop lost in Charlotte to UNC...which was a funny situation, because it's only 30 miles or so from their campus, but the crowd was very much partisan for UNC.
Good wrapup. This weekend could answer a lot of questions.
Greensboro, Charlotte... all those cities are the same to my Yankee ass. But it was Charlotte, I fucked up and will attempt to change it later. Thanks.
They're going to be hurt by the fact that SI lost to Creighton today. That'll knock them down to a 4 or 5 I bet. I still think the selection committee will undervalue MVC teams.
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