One Shining Moment

In defense of the Big Ten

2007-03-26T12:27:00.000-05:00

Recently, my beloved Big Ten conference has come under quite some fire yet again for their play in basketball. Normally, I let this shit slide. Hell, sometimes it's even true (see: 2006 NCAA Tournament). In this case, I can't. I just can't. I won't sit idle as they are being torn apart left and right by a man who has probably logged less college basketball games in his life than I have in the past year. Not when he's (once again) wrong. Not when he carries the readership he does.

Of course, I am speaking of ESPN.com's Bill Simmons, who has attempted to tear the conference a new asshole with his smug and douchy attitude. Most recently, Billy proclaimed,

"Did I tell you or did I tell you? If that foul was called on Oden, there would
have been ZERO Big Ten teams in the Sweet 16. I love being right. It happens so
rarely. Anyway, don't fret, Big Ten fans -- you can still get your fix of
defense and fundamentals by watching the women's tournament."

First of all, everyone said the Big Ten was down this year. Hell, I'd even agree. It was a down year for the conference as a whole. They lost a bunch of experienced players from a year ago, which dragged the middle and lower halves of the conference down. The only teams that were supposed to be better this season (Ohio State and Wisconsin), were just that, sitting in the top-5 almost all year. What a bold prediction there, Bill! Secondly, you're about as right as you are about your gambling prowess. Let's examine...

Here I am going to list 5 conferences and their resumes from the last two weekends of play. I'm going to list their record alongside their "expected" wins. By this, I mean the number of games the teams within their conference should have won if the bracket was entirely chalked (1 beats 2, 2 beats 3, 8 beats 9, 4 beats 5, etc.).

Conference A: 7-7 record, 11 "expected" wins
Conference B: 7-5 record, 8 "expected" wins
Conference C: 8-5 record, 6 "expected" wins
Conference D: 7-4 record, 8 "expected" wins
Conference E: 10-5 record, 9 "expected" wins

Now, logically, if I had to place them in an order from "best" performance to "worst" performance, I'd be inclined to say E (best overall record plus game over expectations), C (good record, highest percentage above expectations), D and B (simply "meh" profiles), A (shat the bed). The respective conferences, you ask? E would be the Pacific-10, C would be the Big Ten, D would be the Big 12, B would be the Big East and A would be the Atlantic Coast.

Now let us rewind back a mere two weeks to March 12th. Your college basketball Nostradamus over at ESPN said,

"Most overrated conference: A tie between the Pac-10 and the Big Ten. So hard to
choose between these two. When you're watching dozens of games over the course
of five days, it's impossible not to notice the varying quality of play from
game to game... Anyway, watching all these games and comparing the conferences
to one another, I don't see how anyone who knows anything about basketball could
argue that the Pac-10 and Big Ten are better than the Big East, ACC or even the
Big 12 (my vote for "most underrated conference")."

You can't make this shit up, people. Brilliant work, William, you have outdone yourself once again. I didn't think it was possible for you to look any dumber, after proclaiming to be an NFL gambling expert and losing to your wife this season, but you somehow managed to succeed at the task at hand. Don't worry, I'll be sure to mail you one of those turd sandwiches you've been clamoring on about real soon.

It's okay, claim all you want about the Big Ten only sending 1 team to the Sweet Sixteen. The truth of the matter is they beat their competition when they were at their level (won both 8-9 match ups and their 7-10). Their lack of teams deep in the field is more of the result of their lesser talented teams (Indiana, Michigan State, Purdue) running into 2 Final Four teams and an Elite Eight (UCLA, UNC, Florida) than it was a lack of talent. Why? Each of those teams held their own very respectably before falling at the hands of some of the powerhouses. It should also warrant mentioning that perhaps no team in the field took a bigger injury than Wisconsin did with Brian Butch. I could go on and on about how this injury affected the scheme of their offense, but I won't. I'll simply state that the only team in the conference that did not meet or exceed seeding projections lost while heavily undermanned. Just saying...

So, Bill, next time you open your mouth, remember you don't know dick about the game. I look forward to your literary beejes of Durant in the NBA and to a day when college basketball no longer concerns you. Good riddance.

-- RK

Updated House Picks

2007-03-19T08:40:00.000-05:00

Kasko's Picks:

Sweet 16
Purdue, Maryland, Winthrop, UNLV
Kansas, Southern Illinois, Pittsburgh, UCLA
UNC, Arkansas, Washington State, Georgetown
Ohio State, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Memphis

Regionals
Maryland over Winthrop
UCLA over Southern Illinois
UNC over Georgetown
Ohio State over Texas A&M

Final Four
UCLA over Maryland
UNC over Ohio State

UNC over UCLA

PS's Picks

Sweet 16
Florida, Maryland, Winthrop, Wisconsin
Kansas, Southern Illinois, Pittsburgh, UCLA
North Carolina, Texas, Vanderbuilt, Georgetown
Ohio State, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Memphis

Elite 8
Maryland over Wisconsin
Kansas over Pittsburgh
Georgetown over North Carolina
Texas A&M over Ohio State

Final 4
Kansas over Maryland
Georgetown over Texas A&M

Georgetown over Kansas

JH's Pick
Sweet 16
Florida, Maryland, Oregon, UNLV
Kansas, Virginia Tech, Pitt, Indiana
UNC, Texas, George Washington, Georgetown
Ohio State, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Creighton

Elite 8
Florida, UNLV
Virginia Tech, Pitt
Texas, Georgetown
Ohio State, Texas A&M

Final Four
Florida, Pitt
Texas, Texas A&M

Texas over Florida

Gregg Doyel Is an Asshat

2007-03-17T11:01:00.000-05:00

Wow.

As the inaugral All-Asshat team comes to completion, we may have found our hatter of the year.
I'm not much of a reader of CBS Sportsline because ESPN does a good job with it's online content, but this Gregg Doyel is reason to read, and wonder whose compromising photos are in his possession. Earlier this week, he essentially ripped Scotty Reynolds and others for leaving Oklahoma when Kelvin Sampson left the program. Today, it was Bruce Weber and Ron Guenther for having the audacity for losing a game to a higher seed in the NCAA tournament. I have never seen writing so poorly and terribly biased from a professional writer. It's one thing to be angry, and let your readers know about it, but good Lord, man. How can anybody take this douchebag seriously after reading this article?

Friday Chicago Wrap-Up

2007-03-17T00:26:00.000-05:00

You may (or may not) have noticed my presence missing here at OSM today. Fear not, I was actually busy at the games after waking my hung-over ass up early to get down to the United Center here in Chicago to catch the action. Here’s what I saw:

Early game:

The early game featured UNLV and Georgia Tech with the Rebs coming out on top. UNLV was able to hold down Tech’s fantastic freshman duo of Crittenton and Young to minimal damage and survive and advance in a tight game at the end. The Rebels did a phenomenal job on the glass, particularly on the offensive end, something I felt like could give Wisconsin (minus Brian Butch) fits in round two. Despite winning, UNLV shot relatively poorly on many open looks. I really feel like the Rebels have a very good shot at knocking off the reeling Badgers on Sunday.

Second Set:

It really is amazing how much America loves the Cinderella story. A couple of threes and a 10-0 lead and it was astounding how quickly the United Center crowd was rallying behind the 15th-seeded Islanders. It wasn’t even so much that Texas A&M-Corpus Christi was outplaying Wisconsin. I thought Corpus Christi’s up-and-down pace took Wisconsin out of their comfort zone in the first half (something that disappeared as time went on) and the flipping between the man and zone defenses kept Wisconsin on their heels. The bottom line, though, was the Badgers were ice cold from the field. They were missing wide open jumpers left and right. Fortunately, for them, Kammron Taylor (played by Chris Rock) got his head out of his ass and figured out he didn’t want this to be his last college game. Alando Tucker had a relatively quiet (but very solid) game and Corpus Christi’s 7-footer Chris Daniels ate up the short-handed Badgers down low.

Third Set:

Instead of watching Kansas run train on Niagara, my buddy Rage and I used the break in between games to get some seats at the bar for the Illinois-Virginia Tech game. If you haven’t seen much of Illinois this season, this game was their season in a nutshell. I began mentally preparing to write in this post that the Illini played their most complete game of the season. They controlled the pace, held Dowdell and Washington completely in check and dominated the glass. The offense looked competent for once and their role players (Meacham, Arnold and Brock) played phenomenally solid. Then… shit hit the fan. The Illini completely crapped the bed. Credit the Hokies for putting on the press and converting their chances, but Illinois seemed to take the foot off the pedal and started playing not to lose. They turned the ball over nearly every possession and missed their shots and free throws. I’m sure Illiniboard will have some sort of conspiracy theory with the refs brewing, citing the no-call on Warren Carter with under a minute left (a horrendous no-call, by the way), but the fact is Illinois completely blew the game and didn’t execute at all the last 8 or so minutes. Ugggh – terrible times. Another blown halftime lead, another heartbreaker. This was just an Illini team that couldn’t stretch leads (due to their horrific offense) and couldn’t close games due to their lack of a go-to scorer and inability to convert free throws. That right there is a terrible combo.

Nightcap:

I was pretty mentally cashed out by this point, unfortunately. Randolph Morris was a beast. Scottie Reynolds was a chucker. I did run into Coach Jay Wright at the end of the game. He wanted me to pass along to the OSM readers that he felt like he dressed phenomenally sexy on the sidelines tonight, once again. Kansas-Kentucky should be a spectacle at the UC on Sunday. I hope it’s warm out so that the Wildcat faithful can bust out their jorts (jean shorts) for the game. They probably lowered the average tooth count in the stands by a good 1-2 teeth today. Oh, stereotypes!

Random Thoughts:

- The Big Ten was 5-1 in round 1. Texas almost choked. If only Reggie Theus had played Julie Connor more. She’s lethal from 3. Suck a dick, Bill Simmons.

- You can’t put a price on walking back to the stadium for the 4th game and walking by a greyhound bus filled with depressed, face-painted Niagara fans. It was like they came all this way and expected to win. Good scene.

- Funniest conversation of the first round: Narrowly beating out the hour-long convo I had with a few girls over which NCAA mascot (non-animal like Colorado’s buffalo or Georgia’s bulldog) would be the creepiest to fuck in full costume, was this gem. So we have a buddy that knows very little about sports that spent the Thursday with us. Very good looking dude, has absolutely no game whatsoever. None, zero, zilch. He and Rage (Duke fan) head to the bar to catch the Duke game last night because it wasn’t on regional coverage (Michigan State-Marquette). We met them out for the last set. Pretty empty scene, but they were sitting a few seats down from a set of girls. Shortly after the Idong Ibok injury (awesome stuff there), the girls gets into a convo with our buddy, naturally over what is going on.

Girl: “So who do you got in your Final Four?”
Buddy: “Uhhhh… uhhh… UNC… uhhh… Rage, who do you got in your Final Four?”

Terrible. How do you not fill out a bracket? How can you not even bullshit yourself into a Final Four? Moreover, how do you completely blow it with a girl that is willing to talk sports and is at a bar to watch sports. This kid is going to hear about this from me tomorrow

- The NCAA pisses me off. Ways they could improve the viewing experience at the venue:

(1) Show the other games! If not at halftime or between sets on the jumbotron, then at least put the other games on in the concourse. Listen, I’m paying $240 for 6 games, show me the other games when you get a chance.
(2) Along the same token, show the days’ highlights. All day long we saw 1 highlight over and over, that being the highlights of the 2006 national title game. Gee, I wonder who won that one?
(3) Have a sense of humor. They did put some classic NCAA moments up on the jumbotron during TV timeouts. You know that key Kentucky run that caused Villanova to call a timeout and got the UK faithful riled up? All I’m asking for here is ’92 Laettner on the big screen. You played it earlier, but now would be perfect.
(4) Serve beer. I don’t think I need to expand upon this.

- In case you are wondering, I hit 24/32 games. Since there were virtually no upsets (none of the top-5 seeds went down) I assume everyone's brackets are fine and that everyone is still in the game. I'm still rocking 15/16 Sweet 16s (missed Arkansas). I fully expect the brackets to break wide open in the next two rounds. It's bound to happen.

-- RK

Friday Live Blog

2007-03-16T11:33:00.000-05:00

12:35- This GT-UNLV brings back a lot memories. Lethal Weapon 3 and Tark's bunch were two teams that led me to love college hoops as a kid. It's a good matchup today, but couldn't they have brought back Tark and Cremins for some ceremonial BS. -PS

12: 37- Lundquist drops some knowledge. Memphis shooting 61% from the stripe? That will hurt. Nothing beats not being at work and Raftery calling games. I'm eagerly awaiting the first Onions call of the day. -PS

12:42- Seems that more teams are getting the doors blown off early this year. Today's early victim is semi popular upset special, Albany. Down 29-11 and we haven't even reached the under 8 timeout. Thanks for coming, Albany. -PS

12:53- Thaddeus Young- Stay in school! It seems a given that some NBA GM is going to take this guy in the lottery, but he isn't ready. The talent is there, but this guy isn't at the level yet where he can consistently be a #1 option. He'll disappear and than start forcing bad shots. Javarris Crittenton is the more NBA ready player on this team. Give it another year, Thaddeus. -PS

1:18 Looks like there is an addition to the token contest-- it's Justin Howerton for the Mean Green of North Texas. A 6'10" sophomore, Howerton is easily the stiffest and most cerebral player for Johnny Jones' team. He hasn't really contributed much in terms of tangible results, but I like what he does out there-- which is look awkward, recklessly fly into the picture, and diving onto the floor for the ball two seconds too late. -JH

Day One Tourney Thoughts

2007-03-16T08:20:00.000-05:00

- First and foremost, let's give it up for the Virginia Commonwealth Rams of the mighty Colonial Athletic Association. Sure, Eric Maynor ripped the heart out of my alma mater and favorite team last week. A weaker person would be cursing him for months, and wishing that he would trip into a vat of bubbling acid...but not me. Any win by the CAA is a good win; Drexel, for instance, shit the bed in the NIT, and therefore has no more legitimate gripes about how they should have been in the NCAA tournament. Old Dominion put up a good fight, but when it boiled down to it, it didn't seem like they wanted to win as badly as Butler. Hopefully, this newfound success will be enough to establish an annual CAA-MVC challenge to not only boost the RPIs of the top teams, but to also give these mids more exposure. Anybody who was surprised last night by VCU's win or Maynor's heroics should have the bracket privilages stripped for two years.

-List of schools who recruited Eric Maynor: VCU, Appalachian State, James Madison and Winthrop. List of schools pwnd by Eric Maynor on national television: George Mason and Duke.

- Other players who turned in huge games were Martin Zino (Texas Tech), Josh McRoberts (Duke), Reyshawn Terry (UNC) and D.J. Strawberry (Maryland). Zino was unstoppable going to the basket; McRoberts, free throw woes aside, turned in a monster game against an undersized VCU frontline; Terry had a critical stretch in the second half when EKU got within five (just like he did against NC State; and Strawberry had the undesirable task of chasing Stephon Curry around for most of the Davidson game, to the result of a 9-20 performance.

- Worst idea ever is DirecTV's game mix on channels 701-704. For starters, there is too much shit going on to the side of the screen, and the game windows are too damn small. Once you get past that, the stupid-ass blackout rules are still in effect, so if there is a game blacked out in your area, you will see this ridiculous cartoon message about it. Very, very, very lame.

- When it was all said and done, I spent eight hours on the couch watching basketball with only one minor spill (liquor on the couch), reasonable food intake (six pieces of fried chicken, two pieces of pizza) and moderate sobriety during the day games. JH's health and well-being 1, Ides of March Madness 0.

- Notes on the commentary:

James Brown-Len Elmore (Sacramento): definitely gum nuts idea if I've ever heard one. Brown is too smooth; I'm pretty sure that Brown could cover a hysterectomy, and make it sound like silk. Elmore seemed a few beats off, not working with gigantic homer Mike Patrick. It was as if he was just amazed that he didn't have to break out his UNITY ring on his partner. As a team, they're just not capturing the moment. There's a story to be found in every game, but they just found time to ramble on about themselves/the past like two old, black dudes in a barbershop. GRADE: C

Gus Johnson-Dan Bonner (Lexington): When it comes to first round basketball, Gus Johnson was made for it. Nothing says "upset" or "close game" than the vocal equivalent of a birthday party full of hyperactive children on blow. Unfortunately, the Lexington region had exactly one close game (BYU-Xavier) yesterday, leaving Johnson to create stories and atmosphere. At one point, he went as far to say that he wishes that the college careers of three random Africans on Central Connecticut State could go on for fifteen years. Why? I have no idea. People will still need cabs in Bridgeport this summer. Why hold the good people up, Gus? GRADE: C+

Dick Enberg-Jay Bilas (Winston-Salem): Good, but nondescript outing for these guys today. Enberg is a poor man's Verne Lundquist (not that that is anything to be ashamed of) and Bilas is one of my favorite analysts. I'm not sure if Enberg was even awake for the BC-Texas Tech game, but the rest of the day was a snooze. Hopefully, things pick up for them on Saturday. GRADE: Incomplete

Kevin Harlan-Dan Wenzel (Buffalo): Everybody's had that moment when they go to work or school, and somebody there is making such a big ass of themselves, you have to wonder "Are they drunk?". That was me listening to Harlan and Wenzel last night. If Dan Wenzel was a more prominent member of the college basketball media, he would be ripe for asshatting. I can't stand anything less than announcers continously filling dead air with the same throwaway tidbits about a team, which Wenzel did repeatedly during the Davidson-Maryland and VCU-Duke games. Yes, we understand that both teams like to play at a fast pace, and came from the Southern and Colonial conferences (respectively)...please shut the fuck up about it. The Davidson game was infinitely more tolerable, because they had Stephan Curry lighting it up early. The douche keg was tapped hardest during the Duke game, when Wenzel and Harlan were egregiously downplaying the Rams, and hyping up the most minute Blue Devil plays. Granted, Paulus did score a lot of points last night, but he has done that a lot recently. How about explaining to the viewing audience why Duke's point guard was guarding Virginia Commonwealth's shooting guard? At one point, I heard Harlan refer to Eric Maynor as "number three". Now, I may have egregiously missed the context, but it sure sounded like he forgot his name for a moment. Would that ever happen for America's team? GRADE: D-

- Here's the breakdown of who's announcing where today:

Tim Brando-Mike Gminski: Columbus (note: Mike Gminski's hair looks like some kind of small rodent)
Jim Nantz-Billy Packer: Chicago (note: expect Packer to land on the asshat list today)
Verne Lundquist-Bill Raftery: New Orleans
Ian Eagle-Jim Spanarkle: Spokane

- Looking ahead to today's action, the game that is the most intriguing for my brackets is Notre Dame-Winthrop. I've seen the Irish play a few times this year, and shocked at the lack of comparisons to Duke. They're lacking the hatable personalities of Coach K and Greg Paulus, but they are one of those teams who never seem to do much "right", but find ways to win games. Winthrop has only lost four games this year (all to tourney teams), and should not be intimadated by the Irish today. Russell Carter (more on him below) likes to shoot, and ND is very tall across the frontline (6-9 and 6-8), so it will be imperative for Winthrop to rebound the ball well.

- The Clarence Thomas Token of the Year finalists are: Carter (Notre Dame), DeMarcus Nelson (Duke), Jeremy Pargo (Gonzaga) and Kenny Izzo (Georgetown) . Call 1-866-TOKENIG for your vote, or Verizon Wireless customers, you can text your vote to "TOKEN".

- In an attempt to help our college basketball illiterate fans, here is a listing of locations for the "Where the hell is THAT school" teams playing today:

North Texas (Sun Belt/Denton, TX
Winthrop (Big South/Rock Hill, SC),
Creighton (MVC/Omaha, NE
Miami University (MAC/Oxford, OH)
Jackson State (SWAC/Jackson, MS)

How Bad Is Greg Paulus? (Live Blogging the Late Games)

2007-03-15T18:12:00.000-05:00

7:13- Greg Paulus has been moved off of Eric Maynor to start the game to keep the Rams from embarassing the Blue Devils on national television. Strangely enough, DeMarcus Nelson is covering Maynor, and Gerald Henderson has found his way into the starting lineup. I guess I can say "You saw it here first, folks". -JH

7:39- Marquette, you are on notice. Feel free to score a point. -PS

7:43- After going on a nine minute plus scoring drought, Marquette is poised to go a 5-0 run. Tom Crean calls off the play where somebody cherry picks under the basket in hopes for a backcourt turnover. -JH

7:45- Greg Paulus beats his man to the basket to throw up a 14 foot floater for an airball. How bad is Greg Paulus? Pretty bad, if you ask me. -JH

7:46- While that last entry was posting, Greg Paulus threw the ball directly to the VCU Rams. How bad is Greg Paulus? The analyst described his ballhandling as "suffering" at this point. -JH

7:51- "Paulus is fautiged". No, Paulus is bad. How bad? His last three pointer barely hit the rim. And Coach K is making no moves to get him out of there. If they didn't keep fouling Paulus, there's a great chance he wouldn't score. Now, I would have to say that he'll just be held without a field goal. -JH

8:04- It was just suggested that Paulus not bring the ball upcourt because Eric Maynor is "bothering him so much". Tie game, following another Paulus miss. - JH

Thursday Live Blog

2007-03-15T10:51:00.000-05:00

Early Games
13 Davidson- 4 Maryland
10 Texas Tech- 7 Boston College
11 Stanford- 6 Louisville

12:22- We've got tip off in Buffalo. Gary already has a good sweat going. -PS

12:29- Back over to BC-Texas Tech. BC has started out with a slow pace taking down the shot clock both trips. Tech broke their necks to give it back to the Eagles. I think BC romps in this one. Texas Tech had one of the least deserving resumes in the field. -PS

12:37- Dell Curry's kid looks like he is 12. If Davidson makes a run to the Final 4, it was the role that Lil Bow Wow was born to play. -PS

12:42- Dudley picks up his 2nd foul. Rice and Marshall are able scorers, but this team runs through Dudley. Huge opportunity for the Red Raiders. They need get themselves a cushion into halftime.-PS

12:48- Maryland is getting roped into a running game with Davidson. Davidson appears to be very comfortable running and gunning. The Terps have a big size advantage. They need to make to slow it down and make it a physical game.- PS

12:53- Louisville is making it look easy and are on their way to running the Cardinal out of the gym. Stanford is playing with a time difference, but Louisville looks better in every aspect. Stanford is reallt struggling against the press. -PS

12:59- Derrick Character could be the x factor on a Louisville run to the Final 4. The kid may be a head case but he is an athletic, physical big man that is currently doing an Ike Turner impression of the Lopez twins. -PS

1:00- MIKE JONES is going to be the reason why Maryland wins or loses over the next three weeks. Against North Carolina, he practically willed the Terps to victory. If there were a way to combine two people, a combination of D.J. Strawberry and Mike Jones would be a lottery pick. Maryland's 8-2 run will probably stop here, as Will Bowers (a slower, less athletic Aaron Gray) has checked into the game. Way to go, Gary. Put in a rhino into a horse race. -JH

1:09- Go home Stanford. This is getting really, really ugly. Way to justify your inclusion. -PS

1:20- Kasko's expert analysis here. I've now watched 1 minute of basketball today. Eat a dick Comcast. I ordered the NCAA Tournament package, they gave me NBA Full Court (my account must be registered under "Simmons, Bill"), then spent an hour on the phone for them to figure out that they don't get the games. Thanks, thanks a ton. Fuck. - RK

1:29- Bob Knight's head is going to explode-- his team manage to bungle a four on one fast break with a botched alley oop that led to a 2 on 1 layup for the Eagles. If it weren't such a close game, I am sure he would have burned a timeout to ream those guys Peter North style. but it looks like he's waiting for the media timeout under sixteen. -JH

1:42- Maryland has just turned the ball over 3 straight possessions as Davidson busts out an 8-point second half lead. That dream I had last night about a perfect bracket... not going so well. -RK

1:49- The Terps come roaring back. This is shaping up to be a classic. I'm a huge fan of what Osby brings to them. His offensive skills are limited, but this guy is a terror on the board and hustles. A glue guy all the way and the best fro in college hoops since Eugene Edgerson.

1:52- Jay Bilas' explanation of why Martin Zino attacked the basket from the right side is an example of why he's the best in the business. Most analysts would have attributed his reverse layup to being caught under two front court players, but it Bilas broke it down further, and attributed to his being left-handed, and getting an easier shot from that side of the backboard. Great, great stuff. Also, while I sang the praises of Osby in the tourney file, it was probably PS who wrote the 1:49 entry. -JH

2:00- Texas Tech has failed to attack Jarred Dudley (3 fouls) all second-half. Why? I have no idea. Boston College had originally countered by throwing Dudley on Tech's unathletic white perimeter 3-point shooter, but still how do you not attack the team's best player if he has 3 fouls at the half? -RK

2:18- Turns out Asshat #3 is live blogging the action, too. Not much to add here, except that I think that the coach of the all-asshat team is going to be the guy from Akron. -JH

3:13- If Butler makes a historic run to the Final Four, I hope Hollywood can get Jason McElwain to die his hair and play the role of AJ Graves. -RK

3:21- According to Bill Simmons' live blog, it took those yuppy douches over an hour to get to round 2 of beers. Good effort, guys. Did the Quik-E-Mart run out of Mike's Hard and Zima's? (Yes, I realize it's sad that our live blog is cross-referencing other live blogs, so what?) -RK

4:06- Butler lost three games in the Horizon League, including the final to a Wright State team who gave them trouble all season. Yet, they are a fifth seed. Does this confuse the hell out of anybody else? -JH

The House's Picks

2007-03-14T23:57:00.000-05:00

Who would we be if we didn't throw our own personal picks out to the wolves to shred to bits and reminds us later when we are wrong? So, with that, here's the picks of OSM. We'll cross our fingers.

Kasko's Picks:

Sweet 16
Purdue, Maryland, Winthrop, UNLV
Kansas, Southern Illinois, Pittsburgh, UCLA
UNC, Arkansas, Washington State, Georgetown
Ohio State, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Memphis

Regionals
Maryland over Winthrop
UCLA over Southern Illinois
UNC over Georgetown
Ohio State over Texas A&M

Final Four
UCLA over Maryland
UNC over Ohio State
UNC over UCLA

PS's Picks

Sweet 16
Florida, Maryland, Winthrop, Wisconsin
Kansas, Southern Illinois, Pittsburgh, UCLA
North Carolina, Texas, Vanderbilt, Georgetown
Ohio State, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Memphis

Elite 8
Maryland over Wisconsin
Kansas over Pittsburgh
Georgetown over North Carolina
Texas A&M over Ohio State

Final 4
Kansas over Maryland
Georgetown over Texas A&M

Georgetown over Kansas

JH's Pick
Sweet 16
Florida, Maryland, Oregon, UNLV
Kansas, Virginia Tech, Pitt, Indiana
UNC, Texas, George Washington, Georgetown
Ohio State, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Creighton

Elite 8
Florida, UNLV
Virginia Tech, Pitt
Texas, Georgetown
Ohio State, Texas A&M

Final Four
Florida, Pitt
Texas, Texas A&M

Texas over Florida

** Also, make sure to stop back at OSM this weekend. I know there are some plans to live blog throughout the key moments of the day tomorrow and there are sure to be other posts all weekend. **

Gamblers' Delight

2007-03-14T23:52:00.000-05:00

It's like Christmas Eve right now. As I pen this post, we sit 12 hours from opening tip of the 2007 NCAA Tournament. I've got the keg sitting on ice, my cable split between two TVs and the bracket filled out, but outside of fun, I also look forward to this month for other reasons -- the money. This month is pure gamblers' paradise, not just because of the load of games, but because of the mutliple gambling outlets that open themselves to you. A look...

(1) Your standard office pool

This is the one everyone enters and the secretary who let her 8-year-old daughter pick her teams somehow seems to win. So how do you curb this? Go big. Listen, odds are your standard office pool has more than 20 people in it. If you chalk your bracket, you might as well be writing a blank check. Chalk never happens unless you are accidentally filling out the dykes bracket in between munching Pokey Chatman's box. Too many people take nearly-chalked brackets and the guy who takes the year's sleeper will leapfrog you. Identify your sleepers and go with it. Find the 1-seeds who will fall early and follow through. You're not winning anything big unless you're taking some calculated risks.

My biggest pet peeve of the office pools is the number of different formats. Does your pool reward lower seeded winners? Then be inclined to take more first round upsets (that's where you make the points). Do the points in your bracket double each round or are the points curbed back to the earlier rounds (my preference)? Better focus your efforts on the right rounds.

(2) Fantasy Madness

Think your typical fantasy league and think March. Pre-tournament you line up a player draft (selecting anywhere from 6-10 players per team) and add up each players' tournament points scored come April. One of my co-workers swears by this each year. Obviously, the leading scorers of the top seeds (guys like Oden, Hansborough, Wright and Horford) are going to come off the board first, but after that it's a crapshoot. Much like your standard pool, you gotta go big to take the pot - conservative won't get you anywhere. I suggest spreading your players through different teams (don't double up on Tar Heels or Jayhawks, etc.), even if it means taking lower seeds you think could make a run, because the majority of teams get eliminated early (32 teams get just one game), so you need to hit a team that makes the deep run.

Not my cup of tea, but another fun gambling method.

(3) Straight Lines

Spreads from Vegas pop on the board shortly after the brackets are released. What better time to lay some dough on the lines you like? You're going to be analyzing this shit all week, so you *should* be able to take some lines. A few I like in Round 1:

- Texas Tech (+2) over Boston College - I think the loss of Sean Williams was on delay for a bit. In their last 7, they've beaten the two teams sitting at home and lost to the 5 prepping for the NCAAs. I'll take Coach Knight on a weeks worth of prep as well.

- Michigan State (-2) over Marquette - Dominic James has been brutally cold from the field since February and I've been noticing. The Eagles have struggled down the stretch without him filling the hoop.

- Wisconsin (-13) over Texas A&M-Corpus Christi - This is the lowest of top seed lines and I think it's reflective of the Badgers recent struggles on offense since the Brian Butch injury. But one of the reason for the struggle scoring has been the opposition - Ohio State and Illinois - two of the better teams of the defensive end of the floor. I expect A&M to be a relief and the Badgers to win easily.

- Villanova (-1.5) over Kentucky - I feel like UK has been smoke and mirrors this season. A closer look at their conference schedule shows they really only beat the teams they should have. Nova's Scottie Reynolds has been carrying the load and coming on his own and I don't expect him to step down to second fiddle even if Mike Nardi comes back from injury.

Bonus NIT pick: Michigan's money line at Florida State (UM is 7 point dogs). You can't put a price on senior-NIT leadership and experience for the Wolverines. I'm only half-kidding.

(4) Superbowl Squares

A new one for me. Think your standard Super Bowl squares, but for all the NCAA games. Some genius in Chicago started this for this year and I jumped on it. My $100 entry has me looking at 2 (home - better seed) and 3 (road) for a combo. Root for it. First round winners pay $65 back and each following round pays an increasing amount, so you got 64 (63 games and halftime of the championship) winner dividing the $10,000 pot.

Sure, it's completely luck (especially considering basketball numbers are pretty goddamn random, unlike football), but can you really put a price on the following conversation...?

Me: Hey, you catch the score to the Kansas-Niagara game?
Random: Yeah, Kansas won by like 23.
Me: I didn't ask who won! I need to know the exact score, fucker!

Get your money in the books. You got 12 more hours.

-- RK

A Plea To Stop

2007-03-14T23:03:00.000-05:00

Last summer, while picking an English Premier League team, ESPN's "Sports Guy" Bill Simmons wrote...

You root for a school for four reasons: Either you grew up near them, you followed them since you were kid, you went there or your kid is going there. And that's it. For instance, let's say that I decided tomorrow, "UCLA is a half-hour from my house and I like their uniforms ... screw it, I'm becoming a Bruins fan!" And I started going to football and basketball games and sitting with alumni and fans whose families had been following them for four generations. I mean, wouldn't that be a little weird? That's like showing up at some stranger's house for Thanksgiving and being like, "Hey, I'm in the family now! Pass the turkey!" I just couldn't do that and feel good about it.

(Confession time: I grew up a BC fan because my mom went there. My dad even had season tickets for the last two seasons of the Flutie Era. Then I got into Holy Cross and turned against them. Just think, if I had ended up going to BC, not only would I be a college football fan, I almost definitely would have served time for participating in one of their gambling scandals. Maybe it was for the best.)

A quick note before I start anything. The "if I had ended up going to BC..." should read "if I hadn't been rejected by BC and thus held a grudge against college athletics..." Pah-tay-toes, Pah-tah-toes. Warrants mentioning, right Billy?

Alright, so fast forward eight or nine months - the Clips are back in the shitter and the Celts are at the bottom of the NBA. Little Billy has nothing to look forward to and needs to look to the future. Enter the college game. We've seen not a single article on EPL soccer, yet Simmons has churned out blog after blog sack-tickling Kevin Durant, throwing the rest of the Longhorns under the bus and attempting to cover other topics he felt worthy to get to. He's even broadcast a few WCC games for ESPNU. Look, everybody, he's a real college basketball fan!

On behalf of college basketball fans everywhere, Simmons, please, please stop. I could (and, in some forums, have) go on and on pointing out your errors and sift through your writing for your stupidity, but I don't have the energy for that right now. All I ask is that you please, please not ruin this tournament. I know that realistically you hardly ever follow through on everything ("that's an entire column in itself...", Top whatever sports movies of all-time, having an intern, etc) and you'll probably cash out your chips with Oden and Durant this summer. And, ya know what? We won't miss you. Not a bit.

If it takes Kevin Durant in Celtic green, then fine. Maybe he'll flop and you'll switch your opinion on him like you've done to many others before (say hello, Al Jefferson and Rajon Rondo). Welcome to the asshat club, asshole. Trust us when we say that your induction is now long overdue.

-- RK

Kasko's Not-So-Organized Thoughts

2007-03-12T10:04:00.000-05:00

First off, although I hate agreeing with Billy Packer, I thought the selection committee did very well this year. Last year was an absolute train wreck that left me wondering how the hell they came up with it (Syracuse's 5-seed, Tennessee's 2-seed, some of the bubble team inclusions, etc.). It's funny though because that train wreck turned out to produce one of the best NCAA stories ever (George Mason), so in hindsight I say thank you. The bottom line is this - being on the committee is an unenviable task every year because no matter what you do, you'll be criticized somewhere. This year, I thought the seeds were pretty much on (nobody more than 2 seeds higher or lower than I would have thought) and I can see why they made some of the decisions they made at the bottom.

A big "Fuck you!" goes out to that bag of douche known as Joe Lunardi. Not only is it now painfully obvious your stupid ass gets tipped off (check the comments section of the recent Lunardi post to see where I noted just hours before the brackets were unveiled where Joe once again moved Arkansas from out of nowhere to in, not to mention his suspicious Stanford inclusion), but his smugness and arrogance was atrocious this year. Luckily, Joe's lone miss of the bracket was my Alma Mater, Illinois.

Anyways, I caught the douchebag on the Mike & Mike Show this morning (which was fantastic, by the way, with great interviews with Mike Brey of Notre Dame and Tom Izzo of Michigan State) bitching about Illinois' inclusion. Look at their profile! RPI is 29, 11-8 in conference, 33rd non-conference SOS and 24th overall. Alarming, I know, because this team is not that good, but you can't deny the numbers. Yes, they didn't have the great wins, but they didn't lose any bad games. Hey, Joe, if you're going to argue against them, at least get your facts right. The past two days, the douche has been claiming Illinois is 3-10 against the tournament field. Excuse me, Joe, look again. Illinois beat Indiana (twice), Michigan State and... Jackson State, Florida A&M, Belmont and Miami (OH). Seven wins. Now, I'm not saying these were "good" wins per say, but they played challenging competition in the pre-conference season. They were also had 8 top-100 wins and didn't lose outside of the top-100. If you want to make a point against them, at least get the facts right you stupid asshat.

As for the teams that are doing the crying today...

Syracuse - I'll echo JH's sentiments on the Orange. Play somebody! Do I think the Cuse should have made the field? Yes, I do. Do I feel bad they didn't? Absolutely not. In fact, it got a good chuckle out of me. This is a team that didn't leave the state of New York until January 7th. How ridiculous is that? They played on the road at Canisius (I don't even know where that is but Google assures me it's in New York) and down to MSG to lose to Oklahoma State. Even the quality teams they brought in beat them (Wichita State and Drexel). Their RPI was at 50 and they lost a few games they shouldn't have - at UConn and at St. John's. Tough shit, Jimmy Boeheim. Enjoy your NIT games at the Carrier Dome. You don't enjoy leaving home anyways.

Drexel - Here's where I disagree with JH completely. To me, Bruiser Flint should be sending Jim Larranaga flowers for people considering his team. This profile was all smoke and mirrors enhanced due to George Mason's run last year and the recent success of the mid-major. Listen, take the name "Drexel" off the top of the profile and replace it with, say, "Providence". Does this even get considered out of the Big East? They lost to Rider and William & Mary (they shut down William on the perimeter, but Mary was a beast in the low post that game*). Do I have sympathy for Drexel? Absolutely. Bruiser Flint should be standing on the soapbox bitching. I love what they did in the non-conference and it'd be a shame if it deterred them and others from doing it in the future. But this team lost some bad games and they were 1-5 against the teams above them in the CAA (VCU, Old Dominion and Hofstra). They had their chances. I don't think their snub was a crime against mid-majors the way it was last year to Missouri State and their RPI of 20.

Kansas State - Listen, Huggins, I understand your drunk ass bitching for your team but call up Boeheim and play somebody. You played the 227th best non-conference schedule this year. Congrats. You won at Texas, beat Oklahoma at home and beat Texas Tech on a neutral court. But you play in the Big XII North, so you used that crutch to 10 hollow conference victories. Go out and beat Kansas or something, then file a complaint.

Florida State - I'm not touching this one because I am assuming there will be a whole post dedicated to it. Let me say this - I think it's a shame this team isn't getting much snub talk. This is a good profile and their 5-game skid game without Toney Douglas and now he's back. If you want to take out a Stanford or an Arkansas (which, by all means, go ahead), I'd throw FSU at the top of the list to replace them.

Now let's talk about the dumbest decision made of the week, courtesy of NBC. One-hour of The Office on Thursday competing against the NCAA games. Brilliant guys, just brilliant. Who the fuck made that call? I'd wager that 1/3 of The Office viewership would be "sports fans" and now a good chunk of them won't be watching that special. I, for certain, will be placing that one in the DVR bin. This isn't Grey's Anatomy here, a good chunk of your viewers still have their testicles attached. Now, if you were to bitch that Grey's and the games overlap, well, let's just say Tim Hardaway does not approve of your bitching. Terrible decision by NBC though. Just atrocious.

More to come later, I hope.

-- RK

(* - Joke courtesy of Deadspin comments section. It was just too good to resist.)

Driving the Waaambulance to MSG

2007-03-11T23:23:00.000-05:00

Lots of good content in the AP report on the NIT selection (bracket can be found here):

"I have no way of understanding why we're not in the (NCAA) tournament," Orange coach Jim Boeheim said. "You look at the numbers and it's hard to believe. But it's done. There's no use in talking about it. ... I'm very disappointed. It doesn't do any good to get angry."
Syracuse (22-10) was seeded second in the South and will open against South Alabama on Wednesday night."

Jimmy, there is great reason why your team is not in the NCAA tournament. For the umpteenth year, you have refused to play anybody of merit outside of the Big East, and the two mid-majors (Drexel and Wichita State) you had the balls to schedule, beat you at home. You can't play fifteen consecutive home games, and wonder why you're on the outside looking in.

"Ultimately, we each kind of put on a coaching hat and said who would you not want to play? That's who you kind of vote for," [NIT Selection chair C.M.] Newton said of the seeding process. "In this case, you were comparing Drexel against Air Force. Would you rather play Air Force or Drexel? Would you rather play Clemson or Drexel? Would you rather play Florida State or Drexel? In each case, the vote came out the way that it did," he said.

Drexel, arguably the most egregious snub from the NCAA tournament was relegated to a third-seed in the East region behind West Virginia and Oklahoma State. I think what C.M. Newton is saying is that the Colonial Athletic Association is good enough to make it to the Final Four, and have two teams in the Big Dance, but they don't quite have the cachet and name recognition as Air Force, Clemson or Florida State. Joe Lunardi may be an asshat, but for the better part of this week, he recognized the Dragons as being one of the 34 best teams to not win their conference tournament.

"They told us last year, go play some good teams on the road. We do, and we win some of those games, but it still wasn't enough," coach Bruiser Flint said. "We're out of it. There is no consolation."

Bruiser, you must look past the slight from the commitee and motivate your boys to go out there, and compete. Not just for competition's sake, but for the city of Philadelphia. It's been a long time since this city has tasted victory, and with the untimley passing of an American hero, the people need something to make them believe again. Do it for the city, Mr. Flint. Do it...for Philadelphia.

Joe Lunardi Is An Asshat

2007-03-11T14:07:00.000-05:00

Earlier this year, kasko rightfully dubbed Digger Phelps an asshat for his fecal opinions regarding college basketball. In the spirit of Phelps' asshatedness, I nominate Joe Lunardi to uphold the standards of being a fucktard.

Last season, George Mason was rightfully outside of his tournament for the duration of Championship Week. That is, until the afternoon of Selection Sunday, when the Patriots made it into his coveted Last Four In column. How did Lunardi predict this turn of events? Dumb luck, I suppose.

Well, maybe not. This week, Old Dominion was sitting on the tournament bubble from the inside looking out...until the morning, when Stanford and Kansas State magically appeared there. Dumb luck again? No. Joe Lunardi is just an asshat.

I know that he's ESPN's resident bracketologist and I'm just some office monkey with a keyboard, but this is a Summer's Eve moment if I've ever seen one. Stick with your guns, douchebag.

Joe Lunardi: welcome to the asshat club.

Update: Okay, so he doesn't have it down to a complete science, but the fact remains that Joe Lunardi is indeed an asshat.

(posted by JH)

Tourney Questions- March 10, 2007

2007-03-10T08:39:00.000-05:00

How much impact does winning a conference tournament have for a team that is a lock to be in the tournament?
- Not much. As long a team avoids a first or second round upset in the conference tournament (Maryland, Virginia, Texas A&M), the semifinals and finals are just playing for the conference trophy.

Gun to your head, how many teams from the Colonial get into the tournament?

- I'm going to go with three. The CAA was unspectacular, but very deep with four teams winning 22 games and at least 13 in conference. I think that second round casualty Drexel has a very strong chance of leapfrogging Hofstra and Old Dominion, due to road wins over Villanova, Syracuse and Ivy League champion, Penn. Hofstra's profile is strong as well, but their best out of conference win was St. Joseph's a team that the Dragons defeated. Old Dominion beat Georgetown, but will be hampered by losses to Virginia Tech, Marist, and Clemson.

Same question, but about Missouri Valley; does the so-called deepest conference in America get more than two bids this year?

- Short of typing "I don't know", I think there will be just two teams. While some MVC teams have quality, even marquee, wins, I don't think any of the profiles jump out and say that this is a tournament team. Creighton's dismantling of Missouri State sealed the fate of the bears.

Who will be a difference maker in March?

- I think one of the most underrataed guards in America is Levance Fields. He reminds me a lot Carl Krauser physically, but gets his teammates involved the way Krauser never did in what seemed like his nine years at Pittsburgh. Aaron Gray is a good college center, but without Fields drawing the defense when he penetrates, he is exponentially less effective. Recently, the Panthers have only gone as far as their point guard could take them, and I do not see 2007 being any exception. His ball control and ability to play lockdown defense will help this tremendously against the higher seeds late in the tournament.

How would you place the top seeds?

- Regardless of what happens this weekend, this is how I see it shaking out:

	East (East Rutherford)	South (San Antonio)	Midwest (St. Louis)	West (San Jose)
1	North Carolina	Kansas	Florida	UCLA
2	Pittsburgh	Wisconsin	Ohio State	Georgetown
3	Memphis	Washington State	Texas A&M	Southern Illinois
4	Oregon	Virginia Tech	Louisville	Texas

(posted by JH)

The Unpredictables

2007-03-09T15:02:00.000-05:00

Every year there's a team that's wildly inconsistent all year and somehow manages to get its shit together come March and makes a run. Or the squad that heads into the Big Dance streaking and craps out unexpectedly the first weekend. These are the teams that make or break your bracket and bust your ass every year. To me, they're the hardest to predict. With that, I'll take a journey across the nation breaking down these candidates from each of the power conferences...

Atlantic Coast - Maryland

You could almost see most peoples eyes lighting up when talking about this team. The Terps came into the ACCs absolutely smoking, winners of 7 straight including doubling down on the Dookies and taking out the Tar Heels, before crapping the bed last night against Miami. There was almost a Fight Club-esque feel to this team in that everyone seems to like them, but everyone wanted them to stay a secret. Mission accomplished for me. I still like Maryland to do some major damage in the NCAAs and will be thrilled to see the bandwagon emptying after it crashed in Tampa.

Big East - Marquette

Marquette came into February as a big player at the top of the Big East. They have been nationally ranked all season and have been picked to go to the Final Four by multiple experts. But the Golden Eagles have struggled mightily as of late, going just 3-5 in their last 8. One of the reasons has been the cold shooting of star guard Dominic James, who is shooting a miserable 27.6% from the field since February while taking a good chunk of shots (12.7 per game over that stretch). He'll need to turn things around if Marquette wants to see past the first weekend.

Southeastern - Florida

This is more of a lifetime acheivement award because I've been dicked over by Billy Donovan too many times in March. Since the run to the title game as a 5-seed in 2000, the Gators had seen numerous disappointing first-weekend knock outs before winning the title last season. They've returned the nucleus of last year's squad and came into the season as favorites to repeat, but have fallen upon hard times as of late, losing to the likes of Vanderbuilt and LSU on the road. The Gators this season represent what the NCAAs have become - a tournament of unpredictability and parity. Can you say with confidence that any of the 1 or 2 seeds will make the trip to Atlanta? Do any of these teams really separate themselves from the rest of the pack?

Big Ten - Wisconsin

Is there a top-10 team people were talking about less as a contender to win the title? It seems people are discounting the Badgers as being one of the nation's elite. Many seemed to be talking of a trip to the Final Four, but I haven't heard much talk of winning it all. The recent injury (and uncertainty over the severity of the injury) to center Brian Butch only further clouds the picture. I forsee Wisconsin being a team a lot of people have circled for that popular early-round exit next week, but I like the make-up of the Badgers. They play very solid defense, have the star go-to scorer in the crunch time, have a strong senior point guard and will likely be playing in a favorable venue (Chicago) the first weekend - all things that tend to correlate positively with NCAA success. I expect the nation to be adding a chip to their shoulder soon, as well.

Big XII - Kansas

I'd like to stray away from the top-seeds in this discussion, but this one is inevitable. History is on their side as well, with recent first-round stumbles against the highly-underdogged Bucknell and Bradley teams of the past two tournaments. How good are the Jayhawks? It's a question I've been wondering for a while now. They've been absolutely killing teams recently, but it's been against their weak Big XII North competition. What's been concerning is that in their contests against the rest of the cream of the conference they've lost to Texas A&M (at home), lost to Texas Tech (on the road) and narrowly beat Texas (at home) behind a furious second-half rally. This team has world's of potential and wouldn't surprise me in the least if they cut down the nets in Atlanta, but some of their losses have been frightening.

Pacific-10 - Arizona

The computers absolutely love this team due to their strength of schedule, but the bottom line is Arizona has been a .500 team since the new year. One thing that's interesting is that the Cats took their last 5 road games in conference (very impressive), which isn't pointed out much due to the home sweep it took at the hands of the So. Cal schools. It's another team loaded with talented McD's All-Americans that can kill you in a multitude of ways of the offensive end of the floor. They tend to stuggle defensively, but will be a glam pick next week because of their name recognition and their conference affiliation and the perceived strength of that conference.

-- RK

Guess Who's Not Coming to Dinner?

2007-03-09T09:34:00.000-05:00

Last season, George Mason shocked the world by advancing to the Final Four. In the opinion of this college basketball fan and Mason alumnus, this was the greatest sporting event since Jackie Robinson broke the color barrier, and a close third all-time to Jesse Owens giving Adolph Hitler the finger in the 1936 Olympics. Non-power conference schools have been there before, but they also had players like Larry Bird, Bill Russell, and Oscar Robertson. Something tells me that Lamar Butler, Tony Skinn and Jai Lewis will not be making any all-time top 50 lists outside of the DC area.

A tad hyperbolic? Sure; but the fact of the matter remains is that there will not be another Cinderella who catches America by surprise en route to the national semifinals for a very long time. This season, there is no doubt that coaches of the Tom Izzo-Roy Williams-Jim Calhoun caliber are going to spend an extra bit of time watching game film of plucky upstarts who pull off a round one upset. They're also going to school their players on their opponent's conference affiliation, nickname, colors, etc. On the Saturday preceding the regional final, Rashard Anderson admitted to a reporter that he did not even know what conference their opponent came from. Think that didn't add for any extra motivation? Especially in a glorified home game for the underdogs?

Florida proved this last season. Unlike the three coaches before (Mark Turgeon excluded, as Wichita State did have a game plan; they just couldn't make a basket), Billy Donovan had a game plan to beat the Patriots, and when his better athletes executed, the difference between the SEC and the CAA was evident. This may not happen in round one in the 1-16, 2-15, 3-14, and 4-13 games, but every other team should be wary of those lower seeds coming out of the unknown conferences.

(posted by JH)

Jump In The Pool

2007-03-07T21:42:00.000-05:00

This wouldn't be a college basketball blog if we didn't have a goddamn pool for the tourney, so it's all set up.

I used Poolhost.com, a site I used last year and loved due to the setup and the flexibility over setting (Fuck you ESPN and your built-in 1-2-4-8-16-32 scoring system!). Anyways, the rules are up to you... so let us know in the replies if you'd like us to change them up at all. The current settings are 1-2-4-6-8-12 scoring, no underdog or lower seed bonuses and no multiple brackets (you know how I feel about this...). Leave one in the replies if you like your pool a different way.

Anyways, come on over and join us for March and feel free to invite your friends.

Pool Name: One Shining Moment
Pool Login Name: osm
Pool Password: osm

-- RK

Handing Out The Hardware

2007-03-05T22:08:00.000-05:00

Now that conference play has wrapped up, it's time to dish out the awards before we get hit hard with conference tournaments, bubble craze and Billy Packer's annual douchebaggery. I'm here to dole out some trophies across the conference I know best, The Big Ten.

Kasko's All-Conference Team:

Heading my all-conference squad and my Conference Player of the Year would be Alando Tucker (Senior Forward - Wisconsin, 20.1 PPG, 5.4 RPG). Yes, it's predictable, as Tucker is in the running for National POTY, but who cares? I'm not sure if and how his game will translate at the next level, but Tucker has had a great college career. Take Tucker away and I'd my throw Conference POTY to Drew Neitzel (Junior Guard - Michigan State, 18.3 PPG, 4.1 APG). If you added the word "valuable" to the "Player of the Year" title, I'd be inclined to throw Neitzel in an argument with Tucker. He's been lights-out and clutch, bumping up his scoring considerably after the Spartans lost a their top-3 scorers off last year's team. He's simply carried State to 8 wins in conference.

Am I forgetting someone? Perhaps the most hyped freshman ever to step foot on a college campus? Yessir, Greg Oden (Freshman Center - Ohio State, 15.3 PPG, 9.3 RPG, 3.5 BPG) makes my team, although I think Conference POTY talk for him is absurd. Last I recall, the Buckeyes were pretty damn good even without him. Oden has been very good, especially on the defensive end of the floor, but he hasn't had too many games he has absolutely dominated. Hell, some might argue he hasn't even been the most important freshman on his own team (hello, Mike Conley, Jr.).

I'll round out my team with Adam Haluska (Senior Guard - Iowa, 20.8 PPG, 4.6 RPG) and Carl Landry (Senior Forward - Purdue, 18.7 PPG, 7.1 RPG). I had a feeling Haluska would be taking home honors at the end of the season, knowing Iowa's offense would be completely run through him. What I didn't expect out of him was leading scorer awards or being the focal point of a Hawkeye team that competed at the top of the conference. Landry was a beast for a Purdue squad that surprised many people and is a bridge to the improving recruiting classes Matt Painter is bringing in.

Bruce Weber Award:

Easily one of the hardest awards to hand out this year would be the Bruce Weber Award for Conference Coach of the Year. Ohio State and Wisconsin were predictably good and nobody predicted at the bottom of the conference came as a surprise for the most part. Cases could be made for just about anyone but the bottom three (unless I want to give it to the musical chairs of coaches at Minnesota) and Tommy Amaker (barring another superb NIT run out of the Wolverines...). I'm gonna toss another trophy in the corner of Tom Izzo, however. Why? Name a team in the Big Ten who lost more from the year before. He got a young team through the toughest schedule in conference and locked down another trip to the Big Dance. Kelvin Sampson may have been the favorite at one point, but then he finally played some roadies in conference and his denim-clad ass fell back into place. It's hard not giving it to Iowa's Steve Alford, as I felt he (finally) did a great job with the Hawkeyes this year.

Village People Award:

This is more of a career award to be presented to Northwestern's Tim Doyle for displaying the best YMCA game in the conference, nay, the nation. I will miss the antics of "Agent Double-Zero" as he takes his show over to Europe or the Middle East or perhaps the X-Sport Gym I have a membership to here in Chicago. Whether it was the just-out-of-the-shower hair he displays, the puff of chest hair that pops out of the top of his jersey or the array of undersized low-post moves with either of his ambidextrous hands, Doyle was always just a pair of Rec Specs away from being the ultimate gym rat of a ballplayer. It seriously wouldn't surprised me if it came out that he logged equal time jerking it with his left and right hands. Carpal tunnel is no match for Tim Doyle. About the only thing that makes me chuckle more about Tim Doyle is the fact he attended St. John's his freshman year before transferring. Good lord, he must have stuck out like a sore thumb on the Red Storm's roster.

Under The Radar Moment of the Year:

In Saturday's loss in Iowa City, the Illini were serenaded with "I-L-L...D-U-I" chants all day as they stepped to the line. Admittedly, pretty funny and creative stuff out of the Hawkeye student section, but I call bullshit. Just two years back, Steve Alford cried foul to the league office when the Orange Krush planned to chant similar things at notorious thug Pierre Pierce after some legal troubles. Alford is a pussy. It's as if he's a Coach K understudy with this lesson in hypocrisy. Needless to say, I'm not a big Iowa fan.

Game of the Year:

Ohio State's one-point victory over Wisconsin to take the league title on a last second lay-in by freshman sensation Mike Conley, Jr. Yes, it was ugly. Yes, it was low-scoring. Boo hoo, the Big Ten sucks. That's their style of play. Eat a dick and tell me the "Big Ten is down again" When are they ever up, by the way? The bottom line is the conference has two legit teams to contend for the Final Four and a few others I could see making some runs this month.

-- RK

In, Out, or In Between: ACC and Big East

2007-03-05T11:30:00.000-05:00

ACC (locks: North Carolina, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Maryland, Duke)

Clemson

JH: I think that the Tigers are out as of right now. Looking at their non-conference schedule, it's hard to imagine a team with just one quality win in conference and wasn't tested before conference play should snag one of the coveted at-large spots. With that said, this team is at the very top of the bubble, due to knocking off Old Dominion and Appalachian State.

RK: Who'd have thought 17-0 would have you on the wrong side of the bubble? They stopped the tailspin this week and put themselves back in the discussion, but it's still a 4-9 record in their last 13 coupled with a relatively weak non-conference slate that has the Tigers needing an ACC run. I think they need wins over Florida State (elimination game) and North Carolina to get in, otherwise it's easy for the committee to dismiss them.

Georgia Tech

JH: In. They split the season series with Clemson, won at Memphis and beat UNC at home. They are 7-3 in their last ten heading into the ACC tournament, and will probably need to win two games to solidify their chances.

RK: Not only do I think this team is now a lock as long as they avoid the bad loss to Wake Forest, I think this is a serious contender for a sleeper in the NCAAs. The good wins are there for the Jackets, as is a .500 conference record. I think they just need one more to move to a lock.

Big East (locks: Georgetown, Pitt, Louisville, Notre Dame, Marquette)

Syracuse, West Virginia/Providence, DePaul/Villanova

JH: Essentially, the losers of the first round game should start marketing their first round NIT home game. All of these teams have similar profiles, with West Virginia and DePaul having the most glamourous out of conference wins (UCLA and Kansas, respectively). With a first-round win, I would put WVU and DePaul in the tournament with no questions asked, Villanova would be on a firmer bubble, whereas Providence would have to probably win two games to supplement their weak profile.

RK: With the victory this weekend, I'd actually throw Nova closer to the lock field and keep the Cuse on the bubble. Why? Syracuse had a weak in-conference schedule (something the committee says it looks at...) and played nobody (as usual) before the Big East. They even lost a few times in the Dome in pre-conference (Wichita State and Drexel) and the computer numbers aren't all there, with an RPI of 50 and SOS at 49. I'm not as quick with DePaul and think they need at least a second victory over G'Town to be seriously discussed. Yes, they beat Kansas, but that gets offset with the losses to Northwestern and UAB. Yuck.

Bubble File: Appalachian Sate

2007-03-03T22:03:00.000-05:00

Here is the first of a periodic breakdown of teams sweating out their invitation to the Big Dance

Appalachian State

What to Like: Victories over Virginia, Virginia Commonwealth and Vanderbilt show that the Mountaineers are as good as other teams gunning for an at-large berth in the NCAA tournament.

What Not to Like: ASU was thumped by 30 at Clemson, and by 32 in Blacksburg at the hands of Virginia Tech.

What Will Help Them: Three things-- Vanderbilt's continued success, Virginia Tech advancing deep into the ACC tournament, and Winthrop winning the Big South. With the Eagles winning their tournament, that saves one an at-large for a hopeful.

Vitals: 61 RPI, 15-3 in conference, 77 S-Curve, 8-2 in their last ten games, road win at Wichita State in the Bracket Busters.

Verdict: NIT. By not advancing to the finals of their conference, consider them as good as gone from the Big Dance. Quality wins aside, ASU needed to truly take advantage of their conference tournament to show America and the committee what they were made of. Unfortunately, they're made of hosting a first round game in the NIT, and then travelling to a power conference foe for the second round.

(posted by JH)

Thornton is Must See TV

2007-03-03T14:29:00.000-05:00

His name was Al Thornton. He was like a god walking amongst mere mortals. He had a voice that could make a wolverine purr and suits so fine they made Sinatra look like a hobo. In other words, Al Thornton was the balls.

Over the next week, there will be a lot of discussion about who will dance and who is relegated to the Not Invited Tournament. A team that still has some work to do to stay in that discussion is Florida State. There is certainly a case to be made for them, but the case against them is not a small one. I'll get a little more in depth on my argument in the coming days, but I'll give a little preview.

1) Al Thornton
2) Al Thornton
3) Al Thornton

In case you didn't hear. Thornton dropped 45 (passed up an easy dunk as time expired for a school record 47, he stayed classy) on an improved Miami team that was playing over their heads in a must win game for the Noles. Big Al has carried this team with little supporting cast (slightly improved by the return of Toney Douglas, remember that on Selection Sunday).

Thornton is a sure fire 1st rounder next June, but the casual college basketball fan wouldn't know who he is was if he walked up to them and introduced himself. A lot of that stems from the Noles only playing one game on a real ESPN network (an early December tilt against Wisconsin). The Noles were a bit over matched in the trip to Madison, but Thornton still managed to produce what my colleague JH has dubbed the play of the year (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WBBBw3OoFrQ). The only good thing about that is that new college basketball fan Bill Simmons hasn't gotten a man crush on him and made ridiculous NBA comparisons.

The country needs to see him. The guy is what is right with college hoops. A lightly recruited fifth year senior that has improved himself every year of his career and turned into one of the premier players in the country. He has developed a deadly mid range game, something that this generation of American ballers are allergic to. He's went from a 50% at the charity stripe as a sophomore to 85% as a senior.A guy that plays with an unmatched fire and intensity on the court, but still manages to carry himself with class.

FSU still faces at least one more must win on the schedule, but Al Thornton needs to be seen. He deserves better than the NIT, but he'll need some help.

-PS

The Davids The Nation Already Knows

2007-03-02T13:56:00.000-05:00

Forget who's in and who's out for a minute. The hardest job the NCAA Selection committee has to do is ranking and seeding its included teams. More specifically, it's an absolute beast of a job to determine the postseason fate of the top mid-major (or should I say non-power conference?) teams. It's a job that everyone seems to have a wide range of opinions on, bringing enormous amounts of heat regardless of which way the committee leans. I'm looking at you, Billy Packer. Take the 1-seed St. Joe's was given in 2004 or the fluctuation in seeding Gonzaga has seen over recent years and placing these teams in the field is no easy task.

With that, I'm here to help the committee sort through some of this field. Here's a look at a handful of "other" schools that are comfortably in the tournament field even without an automatic invite.

Memphis

The resume: 26-3, 18 game win streak, RPI of 7 with SOS at 71. Undefeated in conference play, but just 1-3 against the RPI top-50 (5-3 against the top-100 however).

The verdict: I'd throw them a 4-seed, which would probably put me on the low end of the spectrum. Their winning streak dates back to before Christmas, but they've played all of 3 top-100 games in that time period. Conference-USA is a joke this year, with only Houston (at 97) joining the Tigers in the top-100 of the RPI. I know the computer numbers look nice, but I'm not really buying into it. Win out with others stumbling and I would consider a 3, but those putting them on the 2-seed line are out of their minds.

Southern Illinois

The resume: 24-5, 11 game win streak, RPI of 5 with SOS at 39. Finished MVC play at 15-3 as is 7-2 versus the RPI top-50 (and 12-4 against the top 100).

The verdict: Hovering right on the 2/3 line. Stack this profile next to Memphis' and tell me you want the Tigers seeded ahead of them. You can't. Perhaps I'm standing atop my Missouri Valley soapbox, but the conference is extremely deep and loaded at the bottom. There were zero easy wins in this league. The Salukis would benefit immensely from doubling down on Missouri Valley titles, but their shot at a 2-seed will most likely be the byproduct of teams ahead of them slipping up rather than their accomplishments leap-frogging the others.

Nevada

The resume: 25-3 with a 13-2 mark in the WAC, RPI of 22 with SOS at 125. The telling stat is their 0-1 record against the top-50, but they are 10-3 against the top-100. Looking at the schedule, they haven't beaten anyone in the top-70 currently.

The verdict: Their wins over Cal, Northern Iowa, Santa Clara and Gonzaga don't hold much weight anymore as all of those teams outside the WCC tourney winner don't figure to be dancing. With the loss last night to Utah State, Nevada will need to beat New Mexico State at home on Saturday to salvage even a split against both of their top WAC competition. It's a resume that's more troubling upon further inspection and breakdown and because of that, I'd award Nevada a 7-seed, if the tourney started today.

Winthrop

The resume: 23-4 after an undefeated (14-0) Big South campaign. The RPI sits at 69 with a pretty terrible SOS at 256. Winthrop is just 2-4 against the top-50 with another win against the 50-100 region and two over 100-200.

The verdict: I'd put the Eagles in the 8/9 game if they win the Big South championship game this weekend and still in the tourney (with absolutely no second thoughts) should they slip up. And that's with some restraint. I truly believe this is the giant killer in this years' field and hwo good this team is appears hidden under some weaker computer numbers. It's the conference numbers that hurt the profile, ranked as the 29th best conference in America. But the Eagles have some very nice wins against fellow mid-major powers Missouri State and Old Dominion and an ever-improving road victory at Mississippi State. I know the committee doesn't look at margin of victory, but their four losses came at the hands of UNC (by 7 in Greensboro), at Maryland (by 11), at Wisconsin (by 3 in OT) and at Texas A&M (by 20). There's not a single blemish on the schedule outside of those. This team is going to be an absolutely scary draw in a few weeks.

-- RK

Tourney File: Virginia

2007-03-02T10:05:00.000-05:00

Here is the sixth of a periodic breakdown of teams expected to be in the NCAA Tournament

Virginia

What to Like: Dave Leitao has done a great job turning around a program that was pretty much in the gutter following the Jeff Jones era. Recruiting to Charlottesville is not an easy task, but he is doing very well with what he has.

What to Be Pleasantly Surprised By: How about everything? The Cavaliers were considered a lower tier team in the preseason, and the fact that they are one win away from clinching the ACC regular season title is a miracle in itself.

What Will Keep Them From Winning: Sean Singletary and J.R. Reynolds score in bunches (combined 36.8 points per game), but are two players who take the bulk of the shots. In their past four games, the two have managed to take 55% of their team's shots-- a percentage that will either make them (as it did in their win against Georiga Tech on combined 16-34 shooting), or break them (as it did against Miami on combined 9-23 shooting).

What We Don't Know: Can a team survive with virtually no inside presence in the NCAA tournament? History would suggest the answer would be no. And I side with history.

X-Factor: Jason Cain is the center for this team, and if they are going to win, he needs to up his production underneath. The Lopez brothers of Stanford went wild on the Cavaliers, combining for 27 points on 12-20 shooting. This kind of doughnut defense is going to be what separates this team from a first round exit, or an extended stay.

Who Do They Want to Play: Virginia can play with anybody if their outside shots are falling...

Who Don't They Want to Play: ...but playing against teams like Southern Illinois, Memphis, Pitt and Texas A&M are going to make that a tough strategy. Memphis and Pitt have outstanding athletes who will make Singletary and Reynolds work much harder for their shots than Greg Paulus did earlier this season, while Acie Law would do the same on Singletary. On the mid/low major front, I think Winthrop is a team that they do not want to see in round one.

Prediction: Third seed is possible, first round exit is likely.

(posted by JH)

Tourney File: Kansas

2007-03-01T12:26:00.000-05:00

Here is the fifth of a periodic breakdown of teams expected to be in the NCAA Tournament

Kansas

It's time to start hammering out some of the top seeds and favorites in this year's NCAA draw and I'll start with the Jayhawks.

What to Like: Sheer talent. This is a team loaded with 5-star recruits that have NBA scouts salivating over their pro potential. Kansas has 5 players located in the top 60 of Chad Ford's Top 100 NBA Prospects on ESPN.com (Julian Wright, Darrell Arthur, Brandon Rush, Mario Chalmers and Sherron Collins) and two of them come off the bench of this team. The Jayhawks are stacked and deep and can beat you in multiple ways.

What to be Pleasantly Surprised By: Defense. Many times with blue chip prospects, there's selfishness and lapses on the defensive end of the floor. Not so with the Jayhawks, who are presently ranked 1st in the nation in raw and adjusted defensive efficiency. This team can D you up and it starts with the starting guards locking down the perimeter. Chalmers is a thief of the defensive end, averaging 2.6 steals per game (good for 10th in the nation, 2nd among power conferences) and his counterpart Russell Robinson chips in with 1.9 per game.

What Will Keep Them From Winning: Free throws and inexperience. Kansas struggles at 240th in the nation in free throw percentage. Although none of their key players are horrific, only Chalmers and Collins top the 70%-clip and neither of those two is money in the bank at the line. While many think this might be the best team in the nation right now, this is still a young group of kids that lost to two teams who may not even see the NCAAs (DePaul and Oral Roberts), raising questions of inexperience and inconsistency.

What We Don't Know: Will Kansas be ready to step up to the big boys come March? I'm sorry, I'm just not sold yet on Kansas being a legitimate title contender and that all comes down to their schedule. Yes, they are absolutely running teams out of the gym lately, but who have they beaten in this calendar year? Playing in the Big XII North, KU gets its share of cupcakes and has thus far lost its games against the top of the South division (@ Texas Tech, vs. Texas A&M; the Jayhawks do host Texas on Saturday). It's best wins in 2007? A 2-point win at Oklahoma and a 9-point win at Kansas State. Doesn't tell me much. Plus, Bill Self has a monkey on his back after back-to-back upset exits in the NCAA first-round.

X-Factor: Sherron Collins. The star freshman point guard out of Chicago has started to put his name into the realm of other great freshman points across the nation recently. He's gone from being a virtual non-factor in some of KU's bigger non-conference games (scoreless in 7 minutes at Florida and in 9 minutes against Boston College) to stealing some of starting guard Russell Robinson's court time in Big XII play. He's hit double-digits in 12 of their 15 conference games and has provided a real spark off the Kansas bench, giving the Jayhawks exceptional depth in the backcourt.

Who Do They Want to Play?: North Carolina, Maryland, Marquette. The more you increase the number of possessions in a game, the more likely it is that the averages will play out and a predicted outcome occurs. Kansas hasn't been bothered by up-tempo play this year in games against Missouri, Oklahoma State and USC. They play solidly each possession on both sides of the ball and have an enormous amount of talent to overmatch many of their opponents.

Who Don't They Want to Play?: Georgetown, Washington State, Southern Illinois, Air Force. In their 4 losses, the pace of play has been 66 possessions per game. Out of their nine slowest-paced games, Kansas dropped 3 of them. Compare that to just a shade under 70 in their 26 wins and you have yourself a way to beat Kansas. Although this team excels on the defensive floor, opponents will want to keep the game within reach and hope the inexperience and free throw shooting woes can haunt the Jayhawks down the stretch of a tight ballgame.

Prediction: The Jayhawks are probably looking at a two seed this year, but could slip up or down a seed line based on the results of their matchup with Texas on Saturday and their play in the Big XII Tournament. A lot of people might see another early exit, given their recent history and Bill Self's uninspiring track record, but I don't see it that way. I can't see this team stumbling in the opening weekend and have to recognize them as a legitimate favorite to make the Final Four. They've been smoking the competition lately, but I will be keeping a close eye on how they end the year against quality, tournament-worthy opponents. I really think they need another crack at the Aggies in the conference tournament season to get set for March.

-- RK

Tourney File: Maryland

2007-03-01T11:07:00.000-05:00

Here is the fourth of a periodic breakdown of teams expected to be in the NCAA Tournament

Maryland

What to Like: Grevias Vasquez and Eric Hayes. Neither freshman point guard is ready to carry the load by themselves at this point. They have complimentary playing styles with Vasquez the scoring, flashy type and Hayes serving in the mold of Steve Blake. Next year, I would not be surprised to see Maryland go back to the two point guard styled offense it ran during Steve Blake and Drew Nicholas' senior years, as they have a core of those two, Bambale Osby (more on him in a second) and James Gist.

What to Be Pleasantly Surprised By: Mike Jones finally playing like an All-American. Highly rated out of high school, Jones has been nothing but disappointment, as he had to compete with John Gilchrist and Nik Caner-Medley for touches in the past. This year, however, he seems rejuvenated with two real point guards getting quality minutes. Jones single-handedly crippled North Carolina last weekend, but will be overlooked when the ACC votes on it's awards this season.

What Will Keep Them From Winning: Maryland does not have a consistent outside shooter who they can truly rely on to keep teams from playing zone defense against them. Eric Hayes is their best shooter by percentage, but is usually a non-factor when it comes to scoring. D.J. Strawberry is a streak shooter who can knock down a few, but they lack a Juan Dixon type of shooter to stretch the opposition.

What We Don't Know: Maryland is on a torrid winning streak, and one has to wonder if they can keep it up for an extended period of time.

X-Factor: Bambale Osby, a transfer who sat last season out. Instead of relying on Will Bowers (who can be best described as a slower and less offensively skilled Aaron Gray), Gary Williams has an energy guy who can rebound, defend, and contribute with an occasional bucket or two. Osby was huge in last night's win against the Blue Devils, snaring down nine rebounds and blocking a shot in just thirteen minutes.

Who Do They Want to Play: Wisconsin, Air Force, and Butler. The Falcons and the Bulldogs are two teams that are not athletic enough to cover the Terps on the perimeter, and would have a tough time with their defense on the other end. Maryland has a premier defensive stopper in D.J. Strawberry, making Alando Tucker work as hard as he did against Ohio State to get his shots off.

Who Don't They Want to Play: Florida and Texas A&M would give Maryland fits because of their superior point guard play. Neither Vasquez or Hayes are ready to take on players of the caliber of Taurean Green and Acie Law in the Big Dance. Both players are too accomplished to be upstaged by guys who were wrapping up their high school careers a year ago.

Prediction: Fifth to seventh seed. At this point in the season, I believe Maryland is the third best team in the ACC behind probably #1 seed UNC and probable fifth seed Virginia Tech. Depending on how much the committee weighs the past three weeks, it could put the Terps as a low five, or a high six or seven.

Confrence Tourney Preivews Part I

2007-02-26T22:37:00.000-05:00

Big South (Conf RPI 29)
Feb 27-March 3
Campus sites (higher seeds)

Favorite: Winthrop

The Eagles have yet to drop a Big South matchup and may be in line for an at large berth following the big BracketBuster win at Missouri State. The computer numbers still leave something to be desired and would take a hit if they were to drop one to a conference lightweight at home. They don’t want to put this in the committees hand.

Contenders: High Point

The Panthers gave Winthrop the biggest scare in conference in a one point heartbreaker in late January. They have handled business in conference with an 11-3 mark and look to be the clear #2.

Darkhorse: Liberty

The Fightin’ Fallwells are the only other team to post a winning record in the league, but are still below .500 overall. They have given Winthrop their closest game in a month forcing the Eagles to win on a 2nd half rally.

Prediction: Winthrop takes it out of the committee’s hands and holds serve Rock Hill.

Horizon (Conf RPI 12)
Feb 27-March 6
Campus sites (higher seed), Dayton

Favorite: Butler

The Bulldogs have cooled down since their early season tear, but their dance hopes are still in good shape. The unique format of the tournament which gives the top two seeds a bye to the semis.

Contenders: Wright State, Loyola-Chicago

Butler looks to be safe, but regular season co champ and top seed Wright State must win to keep hope alive. Wright State has split with Butler and swept fellow contender Loyola. Also, will be playing in their home state.

The Ramblers haven’t shown much consistency, but had enough in the tank to beat Butler in Indianapolis and come in winning 7 of the last 8.

Darkhorse: Youngstown State

The Penguins just drilled #1 seed Wright State and have a quality win at Kent State. Don’t know if they have what it takes to cut down the nets in Dayton, but this team could be dangerous one game at a time.

Prediction: The Butler does it. One bid for the Horizon.

Ohio Valley (Conf RPI 24)
Feb 27-March 3
Nashville

Favorite: Austin Peay

Despite dropping 3 of the last 4, the Governors won the regular season title by 3 games. They’ve been the team to beat all year and it doesn’t change now.

Contenders: Eastern Kentucky, Tennessee Tech, Murray State

Murray State has been the premier program in the OVC winning the conference title on a seemingly annual basis, despite turnover in the head coaching spots.

The winner of the likely 2/3 matchup between Eastern Kentuckt and Tennessee Tech could be in a prime position with Peay’s recent downturn and an off year for the Racers of Murray State.

Darkhorse: Samford

The Bulldogs may just be a .500 ballclub, but their 3 point heavy slow down attack can cause problems for a lot of teams. They have a good shot at taking down an athletic Murray State bunch.

Prediction: Tennessee Tech over Murray State in the final. A down year in the OVC. A spot in the NIT for the suddenly struggling Austin Peay.

-PS

Play of the Year?

2007-02-25T00:59:00.000-05:00

(posted by JH)

"Don't Be That Guy..."

2007-02-23T14:17:00.000-05:00

Made popular by the 90s cult hit PCU, I'll flip the object of ridicule in the header from music (that guy wearing the shirt of the band you're going to see) to college basketball.

Don't be that guy who fills out multiple NCAA Tournament brackets.

Why? You look like a douche, plain and simple. I can't tell you how many times I've chuckled over the jackass at the bar during the tournament, filing through his 3 or 4 brackets to check which outcome of the indecisive 8/9 matchup between two State College U.'s helps out more of his brackets. To me, this strategy is indefensible.

In my opinion, either way you spin it off, you're an idiot. Either you don't know your shit and you are essentially handing over more money in the slim chance one of your brackets somehow goes through or you're just too damn indecisive. You can tell me it's like playing the stock market - you are diversifying your risk and have your possible sleepers spread between multiple brackets. True. With diversification comes less risk, but also less chance of a top return. I figure -- what -- the top five percent of pools return money? You might as well take your chances with your picks. If you're wrong, you're wrong. But it always draws a laugh from me when Three Bracket Timmy hits his championship game prediction, only to fall short because he didn't do it in the same bracket as the one he had with the good first weekend projection.

Most importantly, however, you're compromising your integrity as a sports fan. In the sports world, you are taught to have an argument and not back down from it, no matter how wrong or stupid (hell, take a look at Skip Bayless). Are you going to be wrong a good chunk of time? Sure, you are. I've had some horrendous brackets to go along with some of my bests and I'd be the first to tell you tales of my downfalls (In eighth grade I took South Carolina to win it all and they, of course, got bounced by Coppin State in round one... ouch!). Such is life. But there's a pride issue in correctly placed that mid-major sleeper into the Sweet-16 or predicting the high-seeded powerhouse to bow out in the first weekend on all one of your brackets.

So when Bob from accounting takes home your office pool with bracket number four of five and constantly reminds you by the water cooler every morning of his victory, remember to ask him how many loser brackets he placed in the pool alongside it.

Actually, scratch all this. Turn in however many brackets you want, jackass. You're just fluffing up my winnings.

-- RK

Independent's Day

2007-02-23T12:33:00.000-05:00

Last week during the Duke-BC game, Dick Vitale mentioned (among many, many, many other things) that the general public was quick to mock the Dook Nation for their losing streak with the same enthusiasm they would mock the Yankees, Lakers, Cowboys, and Notre Dame football. Surprisingly, it made all of the sense in the world; Duke is the polarizing force in college basketball, and since they were losing, it was the haters' turn to have a chance to preen.

What doesn't make sense is why the Blue Devils don't make the leap entirely, and become a Division I-A independent in basketball. Here are a few reasons how it could work:

Television: there's no doubt that ESPN would shell out whatever it took to secure Duke basketball rights. They have four networks that could broadcast games (ESPN, ESPN2, ESPN Classic and ESPNU), and would bring in better ratings on a nightly basis than retreads of six year old poker tournaments. Moreover, it allows Dick Vitale and Mike Patrick to cut the charade of impartial journalism and allow them to play sack-tickle with Coach K and Greg Paulus full-time.

Money: Tying to the entry above, the Blue Devils would cash in on this move. Their television deal aside, the fact that they would not have to split any of their NCAA tournament monies with their conference would make March runs to the title all the more lucrative.

Flexibility: The Blue Devils recruit nationally, so exposure is vital to a program who have had players from Alaska to Virginia suit up for them. By not being tied to a conference schedule, Duke would be free to pursue mid-season, intersectional matchups that would coincide with their recruiting efforts. Want to show a recruit in Los Angeles what your program is all about? It's just a phone call to any one of the schools in that area (at least four, by my count), tell them you want to play them at home, put their school on TV and sellout their gym. Who would pass that up?

NCAA Tournament: Since Duke is practically guaranteed a bid into the tournament, they do not need the affiliation with a conference to make the Dance. The losers, in this situation, are the mid-majors and whatever team Steve Alford is coaching, as that will effectively reduce the number of at-larges from 34 to 33 on a yearly basis.

Prestige: Frankly, Duke could do this because they're able to make the move. Independence would indeed remove them from their built-in rivalry with North Carolina; but their defection could potentially move the ACC back to the TRU round-robin format that the fans have been clamouring for since the addition of Virginia Tech and Miami.

With all of the above said, it's highly unlikely that this kind of move happens. Then again, stranger things have happened. Stranger things indeed.

(posted by JH)

Tourney File: Michigan State

2007-02-21T10:40:00.000-05:00

Here is the third of a periodic breakdown of teams expected to be in the NCAA Tournament

Michigan State

Book it. With a huge resume win at home over top-ranked Wisconsin, the Spartans punched their dance ticket last night.

What to Like: Defense. Over the next month, you will hear me harp and harp that I believe great team defense is the biggest indicator of tournament success. This Michigan State squad can absolutely 'D' up. They lead the Big Ten in points allowed per game, which is partially due to their extremely slow pace of play. But their points per possession and effective field goal percentage against stats are stellar as well. Perhaps most impressively is how consistent their 'D' has been (see BigTenWonk link for full analysis -- great site). They've been there game in and game out.

What to be Pleasantly Surprised By: Drew Neitzel. The junior point guard and leader of the Spartans has absolutely dominated in some big games. He dropped in 28 on 10-17 shooting (6-11 on 3's) last night against the Badgers and had 21 in the second half of a valiant comeback that fell short at Ohio State. A natural scoring point in high school, Neitzel took a passive offensive role behind the likes of Maurice Ager, Shannon Brown and Paul Davis in his first two years before breaking out on the scene this season.

What Will Keep Them From Winning: Turnovers. It's been ugly in East Lansing in terms of holding onto the ball. Prior to Monday's game, State was turning the ball over at a rate of 26% of their offensive possessions. It's been the Achilles heel of an otherwise efficient offense.

What We Don't Know: If the Spartans can get a consistent second scoring option. It's been Neitzel offensively with a slew of Spartans chipping in some baskets. Michigan State will need either freshman Raymar Morgan or some their bigs to step up to take some of the scoring load off Neitzel's back. Morgan will be the next big stud in East Lansing, but recently struggled through the Spartans 4 game losing streak, averaging just 9 points per game including a season low 2-point effort in a home loss to Ohio State.

X-Factor: Tom Izzo. How many other teams can match up with the tournament experience and success of the Spartans' coach? Izzo has led State to four Final Fours ('99, '00, '01, '05) in the past decade and won the 2000 NCAA title. It seems like every March we are talking about Izzo having his team peaking at the right time.

Who Do They Want to Play?: UCLA, Nevada or Duke. This is your typical Izzo coached team, keyed around defense and rebounding. Michigan State has slowed it down with the best of them, averaging just 62.5 possessions per game this season (308th in D-1). They are very efficient and crash the boards proficiently and should match up well against any of these teams that will play at their pace and allow them to run their sets.

Who Don't They Want to Play?: Kansas, Memphis or Texas A&M. The Spartans recently lost by 24 at Purdue, a team that forces a lot of turnovers. Hectic, athletic defensive teams with good guards who can turn up the heat (think Mario Chalmers and Russell Robinson at Kansas) will give them fits offensively.

Prediction: The Spartans are going to be a scary, scary draw for some top seed, as they figure to fall in the 8-11 seed range depending on how the rest of the season plays out (IU, @Mich, @Wisconsin, Big Ten Tournament). This group may not be as talented as the Ager-Brown-Davis teams of the past few years which frustrated State fans by failing to meet expectations, but they play well together and bear down on the defensive end. It's one of the handful of high seeds I'd be closely examining the draw and can see a major run through the brackets.

-- RK

Got Cred?

2007-02-20T18:34:00.000-05:00

Here's my breakdown of the NCAA tournament, using my highly scienfific method of looking at the conference standings, schedules, and RPI ratings. This projection is based upon the one bid leagues, such as C-USA, the WAC and the Horizon league being won by their listed squads. If not, then teams like Clemson, West Virginia, Tennessee, Illinois, Arizona, and Missouri State will be sweating like Italians before the day ends.

The Field of 65

America East (1): Conference champion
Atlantic 10 (1): Conference champion
ACC (7): North Carolina, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Boston College, Duke, Maryland, Clemson
Atlantic Sun (1): Conference champion
Big 12 (6): Kansas, Texas A&M, Texas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech
Big East (7): Pittsburgh, Georgetown, Louisville, Notre dame, Marquette, West Virginia, Villanova
Big Sky (1): Conference champion
Big South (1): Winthrop
Big Ten (5): Wisconsin, Ohio State, Indiana, Michigan State, Illinois
Big West (1): Conference champion
CAA (1): Conference champion
Conference USA (1): Memphis
Horizon (1): Butler
Ivy (1): Conference champion
MAAC (1): Conference champion
Mid-Continent (1): Conference champion
MAC (1): Conference champion
MEAC (1): Conference champion
MVC (3): Southern Illinois, Creighton, Missouri State
MWC (3): Air Force, BYU, UNLV
NEC (1): Conference champion
OVC (1): Conference champion
Pac-10 (6): UCLA, Washington State, USC, Stanford, Oregon, Arizona,
Patriot (1): Conference champion
SEC (5): Florida, Vanderbillt, Kentucky, Alabama, Tennessee
Southern (1): Conference champion
Southland (1): Conference champion
SWAC (1): Conference champion
Sun Belt (1): Conference champion
WCC (1): Conference champion
WAC (1): Nevada

On the Bubble:

Bradley (RPI 29): Why down on the Braves? Bradley was hammered by bubble team Michigan State by 29 in December, lost by 21 to Wichita State and have yet to beat the three best teams in the MVC-- Missouri State, Southern Illionois or Creighton. They did beat Virginia Commonwealth, but that win is looking less impressive as VCU's profile continues to sag.

Old Dominion (RPI 44): The Monarchs have no more key games remaining in the regular season, facing middle of the pack Towson and William & Mary. Neither team is to be underestimated (8-8 in the CAA), but neither win will help their profile. In order for ODU to make the tournament as an at-large, they would need to have a dominating performance in the CAA tournament, and lose by one in the finals.

Georgia Tech (RPI 45): The worst enemy for the Yellow Jackets is their incompetence within the conference. Despite picking up a key win at Memphis and at home against Duke, Georgia Tech has failed to capitalize against tourney bound teams Maryland, Virginia Tech, and Clemson. In order to boost their profile, Tech needs to sweep Virginia, UNC and Boston College to get moved into the lock category. As of right now, Clemson and Maryland sit above them by virtue of beating the Yellow Jackets two out of three times they've matched up.

Georgia (RPI 54): The skinny is that the Dawgs didn't take care of business in a four game stretch against Georgia Tech, Clemson, Wisconsin, and Florida. Look for Georgia to get overlooked, barring a run to the SEC title game. If they do make the tournament, however, keep them in your mind as a team that can spring an upset. Levi Stukes has a deadly three point stroke, shooting 43.7% from distance this season.

DePaul (RPI 56): Approaching that coveted .500/one game better than .500 mark is DePaul, who overcame a slow start this season (including losses to Northwestern, Purdue, and UAB) to knock off likely NCAA teams Notre Dame and Marquette. DePaul gets another shot at Notre Dame tonight (in progress), but needs to win this game, as well as two games in the Big East tournament to make their case stronger.

UPDATE: The Blue Demons were destroyed by Notre Dame tonight, further lowering their chances for an at-large.

VCU (RPI 57): Oddly, the best team in the Colonial has a weaker profile than Old Dominion. The Rams are plauged by a a poor early season schedule, losing two games to possible tournament teams Appalachian State and Xavier, and a Bracket Buster game againt Bradley, who will likely miss the tournament this year.

Michigan (RPI 58): The Wolverines have the same story as everybody else on this bubble watch-- lack of marquee wins. I don't think a team who got drilled by 37 by UCLA is ever going to be a tournament team. Best case is if the Wolverines can upset either Ohio State or Wisconsin, and manage to keep it close in the final. Other than that, welcome back to the NIT!

Gonzaga (RPI 71): There are teams with better computer numbers than Mark Few's team, but there are very few teams (bubble or otherwise) with the out of conference profile that they have managed to compile. Obviously, the arrest and subsequent suspension of Josh Heytvelt cripples this team, but there is a remote chance that the committee rewards this team for their work early on-- knocking down North Carolina and Texas. This, of course, is negated by their losses to Duke, Nevada and Virginia.

UPDATE: Heytvelt was charged with felony drug possession, meaning that the test completed by the state lab came back with definitive results. Say bye-bye to the 'Zags' at-large tournament hopes.

Winthrop (RPI 72): Craig Bradshaw and the Eagles almost knocked down Tennessee in the tournament last year, and gave UNC all they could handle in a neutral site game in Charlotte, played winnable games against Maryland and Wisconsin (lost by 11 and 3, respectively), with one bad loss to Texas A&M by 20. The good, is that they beat fellow bubbler Old Dominion in Norfolk by six. Why are they on the bubble with such a marginal profile? Personally, I'd throw them into the tournament over a lot of the middle of the pack power teams. And I will now jump off of my soapbox.

Updated at 10:10 pm, February 20

(posted by JH)

Washington pwns Paulus

2007-02-20T12:22:00.000-05:00

Here is one of my favorite highlights from this season. Enjoy

(posted by JH)

Saturday Hoop Bash

2007-02-17T11:53:00.000-05:00

Early Action
Georgetown @ Villanova Noon ESPN 2
Penn State @ Wisconsin Noon Reigonal/ESPN Fullcourt
St. John's @ Providence Noon Reigonal/ESPN Fullcourt
Florida @ Vanderbilt 1 PM CBS Reigonal
UCLA @ Arizona 1 PM CBS Reigonal
Army @ Navy 1 PM CBS Reigonal
Appalaichan State @ Wichita State 1 PM ESPN U
Florida State @ Virginia 1 PM Reigonal/ESPN Fullcourt
Miami @ Wake Forest 1 PM Reigonal/ESPN Fullcourt

12:03 PM- We've got tip off in Philly. G'Town is shaping into a team that could do some damage in March. This bunch had Florida on the ropes last year. For Villanova, Scottie Reynolds is a freshman sensation that no one is talking about. Remember, he's one of the few in the land that outshined Kevin Durant when Texas and Villanova hooked up last month. -PS

12:14- Two early fouls on Roy Hibbert. As previously pointed out, this is what could doom the Hoyas. He's got to stay out of foul trouble. When the hell is J-Mac errr Mike Nardi going to graduate? -PS

12:15- Random Scottie Reynolds sidenote: after Kelvin Sampson left OU this summer, there was a little bit of chatter that he would consider going to George Mason. He had been a fixture playing pickup games there since his freshman year of high school, and was the best player on the court then. Reynolds is extremely religous, leaving a regional championship game at halftime to attend his church service. The belief was that he could be the man at Mason, as well as continue worshipping at his church. It's funny because at his high school (Herndon), he was supposed to play second fiddle to Stony Brook guard Ricky Lucas, but he had a coming out of sorts as a freshman. If my memory serves me correctly, he was the three time region player of the year in Northern Virginia. Something that no NOVA player has done, including Grant Hill or Hubert Davis. -JH

12:19- Doris Burke brings up the Jay Wright to the Sixers rumors. Don't do it, Jay! It sounds like there is a pretty good chance of this happening. Doris even speculates that the Nova administration is quietly looking at replacements. Which school ends up with him in 2010 after he washes out of the assocation?-PS

12:50- Impressive effort by the Hoya's to get this thing down to 2 at the half. Villanova is wondering what hit them in the last few minutes. Looking forward to the 2nd half of this one. Jeff Green has put this bunch on his back, but he'll need some more help to get a road win. -PS

1:23- It's going to be slow for a little bit as I am watching my alma mater (FSU) try to keep their bubble hopes alive in a must win. UF-Vandy in HD on CBS right now, with UCLA-Zona for the left coast.

1:47- The play by play for this game just announced that he thinks Notre Dame should make the tournament with a lofty RPI of 48. Not really how I can say this gently, but Mike Brey is a terrible tournament coach, and his team does not really have a consistent offensive scheme. -JH

1:54- Memo to Roy Hibbert: you're seven freakin two. Keep the ball higher when you attack the rim. No good reason for 6'8" forwards swatting your shots. When your coach runs a play for you out of a timeout, down two points, you need to convert. Ugh. I hate to quote Bill Walton, but THROW IT DOWN, BIG FELLA. -JH

2:02- Great coaching move by Jay Wright. With his team up one point with 43.9 seconds left, the Wildcats continue to apply token pressure with their full-court 1-2-2 zone. By doing this, the Hoyaas were not able to race down court and go two-for-one to guarantee the last possession of the game. If Villanova winds up winning this game, this should get a lot more attention that any single play. After the timeout, Georgetwon scored immediately on a Jeff Green pullup jumper. My guess for a late game play would be Nardi penetrating, kicking to Sumpter on the perimeter with a shoot/drive option. -JH

2:08- Spencer Hawnes vs. Aaron Gray on ESPN. This looked like a great intersectional matchup before the Huskies buried themselves. At least we can enjoy the two best white centers in the country. -PS

2:20- I love America, and I love college basketball. But there is no reason for Army-Navy to be televised. Especially when the #1 team in America is playing. The terrorists just drained a three pointer. -JH

2:25- For a so-called All-American, I have seen Aaron Gray shoot more than his fair share of airballs. The analyst attributed that shot to being bodied up by Brockman and Hawes. My question is what the hell is he going to do next season when he not only has to bang in the post with guys like Shaq, Tim Duncan and Yao, but have to worry about 6'9" forwards flying in from the weakside? NBA comparison: Bryant Reeves. -JH

5:34- Midway through the second half in Indy, Butler's AJ Graves is scoreless still. SIU's guards have absolutely abused him defensively and have completely taken him out of the game as they lead by 10. Sure, they say he's sick, but Graves reminds me of a poor man's JJ Redick. He's struggled to create his own shot or create for teammates. Teams are going to look at this film if they are seeded across from Butler in March. - RK

JH's College Basketball Playlist

2007-02-16T20:56:00.000-05:00

Some would argue that music and college basketball go together like lamb and tuna fish. Unfortunately, this is America, buddy; lamb and tuna fish are disgusting together. But it doesn't take away from the importance of music and the game. Hell, this blog is even named after the sappiest, yet always dusty roomed song, in the history of music. Without further ado, here's the my playlist for the 2007 season of college basketball:

Turn Your Lights Down Low (Bob Marley): The only way you can enjoy the 1-25 Iona Gaels is the same as you would a fatty from the local watering hole-- dim lights, eyes closed, hoping for the best. After last season's trip to the NCAA tournament, the Gaels had America on the edge of their seats this season as they looked for their first win of the season. What's even more impressive (or depressing, depending on how morbid your sense of humor is), the Gaels only lost to two teams from power conferences-- Rutgers (by 14) and Maryland (by 31). Cal Tech snapped their 11 season winning streak before Iona turned one up in the win column.

Lightning Crashes (Live): Wichita State Shockers started out this season with victories at LSU and at Syracuse before their good fortune and seasons crashed in front of our eyes. Back to back to back to back losses to New Mexico, USC, Northern Iowa and Southern Illinois snapped the Shockers back to their reality of being a mid-major.

Stay Fly (Three 6 Mafia): The Florida Gators are back atop the rankings in college basketball-- and with good reason. I mean, they were the national champs last season and returned every single key member from that team. Joakim Noah may be a marginal NBA player in my eyes, but in the college game, that ugly mulatto is a baller. When you factor in the return of a nucleus as solid as the Gators' with the improvement of the other four starters (Horford, Green, Humphrey and Brewer), it should be no surprise that they're atop the polls again. It is arguably foolish to punish this team for losses, as they are probably the best team in the nation every week.

The Dance (Garth Brooks): Indiana? Nope. Notre Dame? Nope. Purdue? Nice try, but Gene Keady is gone. The team in the Hoosier State with the most certain March plans are the Butler Bulldogs, who have not only amassed an impressive 24-3 record, but beat all three of the aforementioned big boys head to head this season. Sure, their three losses have been to Indiana State, Illinois-Chicago and Wright State, but the Bulldogs stamped their dance card earlier this season by crowning themselves Preseason NIT champions.

We Fly High (Jim Jones): Josh Heytvelt and Theo Davis, welcome to the blog. The Birdman flyeth again, and this time he touched down in Spokane. Not only did the sharpshooting/rebounding force Heytvelt get himself suspended indefinitely, but he may have cost Gonzaga a berth in the NCAA tournament, as he is their primary offensive weapon. Kids, if there is a lesson to be learned from all of this, it is the following: If you're going to be caught 'riding dirty', make sure the redshirting scrub is willing to take the rap for you. Drugs in themsevles are stupid, but when you cause your teammates to suffer the consequences of your stupidity, then you're just a jackass.

Winter Warz (Raekwon): The Tennessee Volunteers have played a schedule that would make Jim Calhoun's brain turn to mush. Memo to Bruce Pearl-- sure, Butler was unexpected. But scheduling North Carolina, Memphis, Oklahoma State, Texas and Ohio State? In addition to your SEC East slate of Florida, Kentucky, and Georgia? You sir, have balls of brass. To go along with your tits of apricot.

Points of Authority (Linkin Park): Acie Law, Tywon Lawson, and Michael Conley Jr. highlight a season of point guards who will go unnoticed thanks to the spectacle that has become Greg Oden and Kevin Durant.

99 Problems (Jay-Z): UConn losing to George Mason seems to be the beginning of the end for the Huskies Nation. Personally, I think it's due to the bad karma from one of their cocky fans who I overheard saying "I've got a big fat stogie I'll enjoy up I-95 after we win this one" last March at the Ruby Tuesday outside of the Verizon Center. Hey, jackass! How's that taste right now? Honorable mention goes to LSU, who went from Final Four participant to "Wha happen?" team of the year.

Kryptonite (Three Doors Down): Virginia Tech. Do not mess with the chicago maroon and orange this March, or they will bang your sister. Well, maybe not that, but they will certainly give you a much tougher game than you'd ever want them to.

Smells Like Teen Spirit (Nirvana): How good are Kevin Durant and Greg Oden? They have made guys like Bill Simmons and Marcel Mutoni start paying attention to college basketball. According to Simmons, Durant has the potential to be Michael Jordan, Larry Bird, Jesus, and Jenna Jameson rolled into one while Oden has the potential to be the youngest 34 year old to be one year removed from high school. The greatest part about their emergence is that Durant seems perfectly willing to stay another year in school, which means that some people are going to have to root for them to suck for TWO seasons instead of one.

(posted by JH)

Saturday Live Blog

2007-02-16T18:09:00.000-05:00

Keep refreshing 1shiningmoment all day Saturday for the inaugural 1sm live blog. We'll be breaking down the Bracket Buster and numerous power conference match ups as they happen. Fun starts at around noon with myself, ESPN Full court, A 50 inch plasma, and a case of domestic beer. The rest of the crew will chime as they see fit. As always, hit up oneshiningmoment at gmail dot com with your questions.

-PS

Busting Up The Brackets, Part II

2007-02-16T14:09:00.000-05:00

Here is a further breakdown of the major games, as well as a rating of how this could shake up the field of 64+1 if they should need to gain an at-large berth into the tournament. The event starts Friday, and concludes on Saturday night.

Appalachian State at Wichita State (Sat. 1PM ET, ESPNU)
Conference affiliations: Southern (Appalachian State), MVC (Wichita State)
At-large implications: Moderate
Breakdown: A matchup of two teams whose profiles have slightly faded in conference play. Wichita State (16-10, 8-8) was well-documented, climbing into the Top-10 at one point, after victories at George Mason, at LSU and at Syracuse, all of which seem hollow now after struggling in conference play. It would probably take them winning out (Applachian State, Missouri State, at Creighton) to get themselves back on the bubble. Similarly, Appalachian State (17-6, 12-3) got some huge victories over Virginia, Vanderbuilt and VCU prior to play in the Southern Conference, where they have dropped 3 conference games to 200+ RPI opponents. The winner keeps their long-shot at-large hopes alive, but both most likely will have to rely on winning their conference tournaments.
Players to Watch: Mountaineers point guard DJ Thompson has found his long range shooting stroke recently, hitting 20-of-42 3-point attempts over his last five games. The Shockers will need to defend the perimeter with guards PJ Couisnard and Sean Ogari to hold Thompson in check.

Northern Iowa at Nevada (Sat. 6PM ET, ESPN2)
Conference affiliations: MVC (Northern Iowa), WAC (Nevada)
At-large implications: Low
Breakdown: This is a battle of two teams on opposite ends of the spectrum. Nevada (22-2, 11-1) is already locked in for March once again and is merely trying to keep winning for seeding. Northern Iowa (15-11, 7-9) looked poised to make their 4th consecutive NCAA Tournament back in January when they sat at 12-2 overall and 4-0 in conference, but have since struggled, winning just 3 of their last 12 games to fall out of contention in the Missouri Valley. A victory by Northern Iowa won't heal their resume nor would it really bruise the at-large profile of the Wolfpack.
Players to Watch: The matchup to watch here is on the inside, where 3-year starters Eric Coleman and Grant Stout of Northern Iowa will battle National Player of the Year candidate Nick Fazekas. The duo has been somewhat inconsistent during UNI's recent skid and will need to neutralize Fazekas and hope they don't get burned by the underrated Marcelus Kemp on the perimeter.

Old Dominion at Toledo (Sat. 6PM ET, ESPN360)
Conference affiliations: CAA (Old Dominion), MAC (Toledo)
At-large implications: Moderate
Breakdown: Old Dominion (20-7, 13-3) comes into this contest streaking, winners of seven straight and fresh off of victories over fellow Colonial contenders VCU and Hofstra. They sit a game back of VCU in conference with two middle-tier CAA opponents on their schedule and a bubblicious RPI of 52. A victory here could go a long way in a few Sundays. For Toledo (14-10, 10-2), it appears the MAC is destined to be a 1-bid league once again (this league has continued to beat each other up and out of at-large spots this entire decade) and a conference tournament victory is eminent to be dancing in March. They boast a nice conference record, but the 4-8 non-conference season eliminates them from consideration.
Players to Watch: Lithuanian product and leading scorer Valdas Vasyllus is coming off a career-game in the Monarchs recent win over Hofstra. I look for Toledo to put Florentino Valencia on him, which should give ODU a noticeable size advantage on the interior.

Southern Illinois at Butler (Sat. 4PM ET, ESPN2)
Conference affiliations: MVC (Southern Illinois), Horizon (Butler)
At-large implications: Low
Breakdown: Just how far has Bracket Busters come since its inauguration in 2005? This year's marquee game tells that story - it has absolutely no barring on either of these teams making their NCAA cases. Why? They're both locks to make the tourney. This one is simply to beef the resume, fight for some seeding and gain some bragging rights for their respective conferences. SIU (21-5, 13-3) appears to be the RPI darling this year, sitting 8th with a hoard of good victories in-conference and a neutral site W over tournament-bound Virginia Tech. Butler (22-3, 11-2) took the mid-major world by storm early with in-state bragging rights over Notre Dame, Indiana and Purdue as well as victories over Gonzaga and Tennessee. They actually sit a game behind (tied in the loss column, however) with Wright State in conference play, but a solid resume and good computer numbers (RPI currently at 30) won't have them left in the cold come tournament time.
Players to Watch: This is a battle of two teams that can absolutely suffocate you defensively. Butler star guard AJ Graves has saved some of his best performances for the brightest lights, routinely topping his 17.6 scoring average in Butler's key games. Expect the dynamic backcourt trio of the Salukis of Bryan Mullins, Jamal Tatum and Tony Young to have an eye on Graves at all times. I look for someone else from the Bulldogs to step up if they want get a win here.

Enjoy the games, both big and mid conference, this weekend...

-- RK

Busting Up The Brackets, Part I

2007-02-14T20:25:00.000-05:00

The latest edition of Bracket Busters is upon us again, and once again, there are games with significant NCAA tournament implications. The concept, for those unfamiliar, is taking mid-major programs and pitting them against each other on national television so the committee and fans alike can get a glimpse at the "next George Mason" (formerly the "next Gonzaga"), as well as get a late season RPI boost they wouldn't otherwise get from their conference breathren. Every team signs on for two years, as to ensure a home game, as well as an away game in the series.

The toughest part about the Bracket Buster concept is that the participating teams are chosen before the season starts, which can result in some teams without NCAA at-large dreams being invited based on projections and estimations. This season, George Mason fits that bill as they are all but out of contention for one of the coveted 34 spots.

Here is a breakdown of the major games, as well as a rating of how this could shake up the field of 64+1 if they should need to gain an at-large berth into the tournament. The event starts Friday, and concludes on Saturday night.

Drexel at Creighton
Conference affiliations: CAA (Drexel), MVC (Creighton)
At-large implications: High
Breakdown: Creighton needs this game as the icing on their profile cake. With a 12-4 record in the uber-competitive Missouri Valley Conference, the Blue Jays have an RPI rating of 24, SOS of 27 and a 3-2 record against the RPI Top 50. The Dragons sit outside of the top fifty at 53, but are a tough team that blazed out of the gates last season during the Preseason NIT but faltered down the stretch. Drexel is in the thick of the CAA race, but the league is having a down year.
Players to Watch: Creighton's Nate Funk is a great scorer (17.3 ppg) and the guy you want on the line when the game is on the line (87.4 FT%). Drexel is led by center Frank Elegar and senior guard Bashir Mason.

Bradley at Virginia Commonwealth
Conference Affiliation: MVC (Bradley), CAA (Virginia Commonwealth)
At-large implications: Moderate
Breakdown: The Rams and the Braves come into this game ranked 46th and 51st respectively in the RPI ratings, which means that this game is essentially an elimination from at-large consideration. VCU has done all they could with their schedule-- they have won all fifteen games against the worst of the worst, sub-150 RPI teams. VCU plays an uptempo style of basketball which should make for a fast paced game. Both teams average better than 75 points. At 8-7, Bradley is another team that is well outside of the tournament, but could use this game as a springboard to a big March.
Players to Watch: The guards for both teams. This game should be a track meet, so there should be plenty to see in transition.

Winthrop at Missouri State
Conference Affiliation: Big South (Winthrop), MVC (Missouri State)
At-large implications: High
Breakdown: Surprisingly, the team with at-large dreams is not the team from Missouri State. Winthrop, who came a desperation three pointer away from knocking off Tennesse last year, needs this profile boosting win, as they suffering in the computers (RPI of 78) due to their conference. They have played a handful of certain tournament teams, coming up short in all four game. Missouri State sits in third place in the Valley, which should be good enough to get in. They have a resume boost, having beaten Wisconsin on a neutral court in December.
Players to Watch: Winthrop's Craig Bradshaw and Missouri State's Blake Ahearn. Classic mid-major stars who are lacking that one quality that kept them from being blue chippers.

More previews to come later...

(posted by JH)

Tourney File: Virginia Tech

2007-02-14T11:14:00.000-05:00

Here is the second of a periodic breakdown of teams expected to be in the NCAA Tournament

Virginia Tech

What to Like: Team basketball. The Hokies have good players; maybe even great players, but what separates this team from, say Virginia, is that there is never an instance while watching them on television that would make you say "Wow, [insert player name]is taking a lot of bad shots". Last night against UNC, Zabian Dowdell may have scored 33 points, but he did so in 41 minutes, on fifteen shots from the floor and an impressive 17-19 from the foul line. Five Hokies took more than ten shots, which means that they're spreading the ball around the floor.

What to be Pleasantly Surprised By: Coach Seth Greenberg, who has come into a football school, and created a top notch basketball program in arguably the best basketball conference in the game

What Will Keep Them From Winning: Depth. This is not a deep team, and could hurt them in the tournament if they ever run into foul trouble on the perimeter. Compounding their depth issues, they are also very young on the bench, getting significant minutes from four sophomores and freshmen.

What We Don't Know: If their good fortune can last. Dowdell is the leader of this team, and their tourney hopes delicately are balanced on his health and strong play.

X-Factor: Sophomore A.D. Vasallo. In four games at UNC (2-10 from the floor last night), at GW (2-6 threes) at Western Michigan (1-6 from distance), at Marshall (0-4 from three point), the Hokies won only one game, and lost the others by a margin of three or fewer points. In their loss against Southern Illinois, Vasallo shot 2-6 from long range as they lost by five.

Who Do They Want to Play?: North Carolina and Kansas. Virginia Tech has proven twice that they can slow down the pace at will, and grind it out with the best of teams who rely on talent, more so than a system of sorts to win games.

Who Don't They Want to Play?: Texas A&M and Ohio State. The Aggies are showing up a lot as a team that teams do not want to face in the tournament, and it's because of their defense. Acie Law is the kind of player who can put some kind of clamps on Dowdell, who is the Hokies' catalyst on offense. Ohio State would cause tremendous matchup problems for VT, since the Buckeyes can limit penetration with Greg Oden anchoring the lane.

Prediction: Anywhere from a four to a six seed. The Hokies still have a lot of work to do (hosting BC and Clemson, travelling to Virginia), but the true challenges are games against NC State and Miami. I wouldn't fault them for losing to Virginia at the John Paul Jones Center, but they need to take care of business at home, against the bubbling Wolfpack and the bottom feeder Hurricanes.

Life On The Bubble: Texas

2007-02-13T20:02:00.000-05:00

The bubble. That's right, I said it. That's where you find the 'Horns, in my book. Contrary to what many major media outlets will have you believe, Texas (18-7, 8-3) is still far from a lock to dance in March. Are they going to get in? Probably. They're sitting in 3rd in the Big XII and they have the star-power. You think the money-hungry NCAAs doesn't want to showcase Kevin Durant in March? Dream on.

But... a closer look reveals a profile as shaky as many out there on the bubble. Who have they beaten? The victories over LSU, Arkansas and at Texas Tech don't carry nearly as much weight as people once thought they would. The beat Oklahoma State by 29 last night in Austin? Would that be the same Oklahoma State squad that is now 0-5 in true road games this year? Exactly. Couple that with the fact they've dropped numerous contests against other NCAA candidates - Michigan State, Gonzaga, Tennessee, Villanova, Kansas State - and you have yourself one hollow profile that's hiding behind its media hype.

While Bill Simmons may continue to sack-tickle Kevin Durant until you are convinced Texas is legit, I'll throw some numbers at you. Their RPI is at 54. Their strength of schedule sits at 87. The Longhorns are 2-6 against the RPI top-50. Bubble, bubble, bubble.

Sure, they have the phenomenal freshman 1-2 punch of Kevin Durant and DJ Augustin that, when clicking, can be one of the most difficult offenses to stop in the NCAAs. They've thrown up 100 four times this season. They've also lost two of those contests and have given up triple-digits one other time (@ Texas A&M). This team cannot defend. Period. Ken Pomeroy currently has them 101st in his defensive efficiency rankings. Want to know the three teams on either side of them? St. Joe's, East Tennessee State, Dayton, Northwestern, Indiana State and Ball State. Not quite the nation's elite. Until they learn how to guard, I'm not convinced this team can make it out of the first weekend in March.

Before then, however, they need to get in, which seems manageable enough. Contests at Baylor and hosting a struggling Texas Tech team should get them to 10 conference wins, which is impressive, before a gauntlet of a finish - at Oklahoma, vs. Texas A&M, at Kansas. I'll warn the 'Horns - don't slip up or else you may find yourselves having to get your marquee victory for your NCAA resume or you may just find yourselves handing over some awfully unimpressive numbers and breakouts to the committee.

-- RK

Reyshawn Terry: American Hero

2007-02-13T18:45:00.000-05:00

Every team has them. They're the guys who are willing to play second fiddle to the stars of the team for the greater good. I'm talking about guys like Byron Mouton of the Maryland Terrapins during their NCAA championship year in 2002. I'm talking about so-called "role players".

The term role-players is a bit of a misnomer, as every player on a team has a role; it's just that some roles are less glamorous than others. For instance, during the 2001 season when Duke won the national title, Shane Battier was the face of the program and a role player all at once. On the surface, it seems contradictory, but it's simple-- Batiter was never the first option on the Blue Devils' plays, nor did it seem that he slacked off on defense, whether he was guarding on the perimeter or in the post. Some columnists would call these guys "glue guys", but I would say they're more than glue; they are the foundation of winning teams. Forget glue-- these guys are more like granite.

Enter Reyshawn Terry.

In my opinion, Terry is the most underrated player in America. He's unselfish enough to cede the spotlight not only to Tyler Hansborough (a sophomore), but to three freshmen who are captivating the eyes of fans and NBA scouts. Last year, the Tar Heels had a David Noel, but Noel wasn't quite the player Terry has show me this season. Noel, a converted football player, had a decent outside game, and a bullish inside game...but nothing in between. Terry is a ball player who can control the defense by stretching them horizontally, as well as penetrating off of the dribble. He is physical enough to cover power forwards in college, which is a huge benefit to a team like North Carolina when they need to put an extra guard onto the floor.

When the Tar Heels take on Virginia Tech tonight, keep an eye on #3 in white. He is going to be the one doing the things like rebounding, playing the passing lanes, and filling his lane on the break that are going to make those flashy underclassmen look good. And I'm sure he wouldn't have it any other way.

(posted by JH)

Life On The Bubble: Illinois

2007-02-12T19:24:00.000-05:00

From one bubble team with a racially offensive mascot to the next, I hop across the bubble from FSU to my alma mater, Illinois.

The best case for Illinois (18-9, 6-6) might be that, when the dust settles, this turns out to be the fourth best team in the Big Ten. Sure, the committee will tell you it looks at individual profiles and does not consider conference affiliation, but I personally have a hard time believing that. All in all, Illinois may be helped more by the shortcomings of others (Michigan State's recent slide, Purdue's inability to get a marquee win in Columbus, Iowa's non-conference resume) than its own profile. As of today, respected bracketologist Joe Lunardi over at ESPN had moved Illinois into his field as the last team dancing with an at-large profile, which is odd because they slid from out of the field to in despite losing over the weekend in Bloomington.

This could be one of the most bland and boring profiles you will see out there, something that makes this a difficult case to discuss. There are no wins on the resume that jump out at you (best wins being Indiana and MSU at home, neutral over Bradley), yet there are no cringe-worthy losses on the slate either (worst loss at Michigan) -- something that seems unlikely to change before conference play closes out. Illinois sees home dates with Northwestern and Michigan and a trip to Penn State before a crucial showdown with the Hawkeyes in Iowa City to close the conference schedule.

The common opinion seems to be that 9-7 will have the Illini sweating bullets on Selection Sunday and 10-6 should have them firmly in. The scary thing is it's looking more and more like the Illini will see Iowa twice in a week (at Iowa on March 3 and then in the 4/5 game in the Big Ten quarters) before even getting a crack at stamping their dance card with a marquee W over the likes of a Wisconsin or Ohio State.

It's been an unusual year for fans down in the C-U and it would be quite the empty and odd feeling thumbing the sports pages for the Illini's NIT matchup instead of checking the listings for their 1st-round start time in the NCAAs. Hopefully, the committee will look favorably upon their numerous injuries (McBride, Randle, Frazier, Smith and Semreau have all missed large chunks of play this year) and their relatively strong computer numbers (41 in RPI, 17 in SOS through Sunday).

If the bubble bursts, I can't say I blame the committee. The Illini have definately had their share of chances, blowing second half leads in many of their losses and falling short time and again to get their staple win to hang their hats on. Until then, it's pins and needles for the orange and blue.

-- RK

(P.S. I forgot for a second google image searching "Bruce Weber" returns gay art. Fantastic.)

Dancing Without the Dookies?

2007-02-12T09:23:00.000-05:00

Duke is headed for the NIT tournament.

Or so it would seem.

After last night's fourth consecutive loss in ACC play, the Duke Blue Devils are in uncharted territory for this time of year-- the bubble. Just one season removed from a run to the Sweet Sixteen, and just six years removed from a national title, the Cameron Crazies are about to join the faithful fans of "lesser" basketball institutions such as the Campbell Camels, Ohio Bobcats and the Buffalo Bulls as fans with no team in the Big Dance.

How did this happen? For starters, Coach K appears to have strayed away from recruiting the three most important players to his last title run-- athletic point guards and a true scoring post player. With Williams and Duhon, the Blue Devils were able to man up against any team in the country, and not have to worry about guards slashing to the basket at will. Carlos Boozer was the team's crutch; in games where Dunleavy's threes weren't falling, or if Williams couldn't quite turn the corner, Boozer was there to muscle his way to easy baskets.

The current edition of Duke doesn't have any of those components. The most athletic player on the team is Demarcus Nelson, who's usually tasked with guarding off the ball, even though he'd probably be better served on the ball to plug the sieve that is Greg Paulus' defense. Inside, they just don't have the muscle. Josh McRoberts is a white Darius Miles, in that his speciality is finishing plays with dunks and little else. There are arguably three players on Duke's team who would have even seen the court during their title run: Nelson, Jon Scheyer, and Gerald Henderson.

How can Duke improve? More zone, and more Gerald Henderson. By moving to a zone, the Blue Devils can neutralize other teams' athletic superiority and force them to shoot from the outside. With the lack of marquee three point shooters this season, it is a safe gamble to make other teams beat you from 18'6".

By playing Henderson more, they get more athletic, plain and simple. Paulus may be the mold of every Duke point guard, but there is nothing that would suggest that Henderson would do a worse job covering the opposition's lead guard than Paulus has.

Last season, Duke was exposed by Louisiana State when the Tigers played tight defense, and funnelled them to their shot blockers inside. Coach K appears to have fixed this situation by recruiting more athletic players who could finish those shots that were eventually made Tyrus Thomas a millionaire despite having zero tangible offensive skills.

Will Duke miss the tournament? I don't think so. Even with their four straight losses, Duke is still sitting at 14th in the latest ESPN RPI standings. Plus, we've seen this kind of finish before in 2004 when Maryland, as the sixth seed, won the ACC tournament by gelling at the right time. If K can keep his team focused, Duke will salvage what's left of the ACC regular season, and make the tournament. If not, we may be seeing Dick Vitale's head explode on national television when the brackets are announced, and Duke is absent.

Not that it is a bad thing. It'd just be hell on the janitorial staff.

(posted by JH)

Life On The Bubble: Florida State

2007-02-11T22:18:00.000-05:00

The trials and tribulations of a team on the NCAA Tournament’s do not have an equal in the sporting world. It’s part pennant race, part BCS, and part backroom deal. It’s must-win games, scoreboard watching, computer rankings, and politics all mixed into one.

Despite a 9-7 record in the ACC, Florida State found themselves on the outside looking in on selection Sunday last year. In an effort to avoid that fate, they made a concentrated effort to beef up the non conference schedule and take the decision out of the committees hands.

This time last week, it appeared the Seminoles were on there way in. They were riding high off the first win at Cameron Indoor Stadium in the history of the program. Duke may not have been up to the usual number one seed standards, but this was the kind of win that enables programs to make that jump and secure a spot in the Big Dance. Couple that with the early season win over #1 Florida and strong computer numbers, they were poised to see March Madness for the first time since 1998

Now, just a week later things aren’t quite as rosy. It has become apparent that that Duke’s struggles are no fluke. While, any win on the road in the ACC is a good win, a win over this year Blue Devil squad means less than it has in a decade. It certainly wasn't the resume maker the Seminoles had hoped.

For their part, the Noles haven’t helped themselves much. They played uninspired ball at Clemson to bring them back to 500 in league play. The even bigger loss may have starting point guard and number two scorer Toney Douglas breaking his hand against the Tigers.

Fast forward to Sunday afternoon, it’s de ja vu for the Seminoles. Boston College ripped out their hearts on a last second shot for the second time in less than three weeks. Leonard Hamilton and company are feeling the pressure of facing must win games. They are back in a familiar place, the bubble.

-PS

How does West Virgina do it?

2007-02-11T17:22:00.000-05:00

With West Virginia’s upset of UCLA on Saturday, they are no longer on the bubble and barring a total collapse will be in the NCAA tournament. West Virginia beat UCLA for the second straight year, this time at Morgantown, and picked up the signature win they were badly searching for. Prior to their 70-65 win over the Bruins, the Mountaineers marquee win was over Villanova (nothing to brag home about).

West Virginia was predicted to finish 12^th in the Big East after losing four starters and their main reserve. Few people could have imagined that West Virginia would make the NCAA tournament for the third year in a row after losing Kevin Pittsnogle, Mike Gansey, Joe Herber, J.D. Collins and Patrick Beilein. Somehow West Virginia has been able to muster an 18-5 record overall and a 7-4 record in conference play. The answer to how a team that lost 83% of its scoring production is able to play so well and (presumably) make the NCAA tournament lies in one man, John Beilein.

John Beilein’s system is what enables the Mountaineers to overachieve with average talent. Beilein gets the most out of his players. His teams always show up to play and display a tremendous amount of heart on the court. There aren’t any highly rated recruits on the West Virginia team. West Virginia executes the motion offense, filled with cutting, curling and back door plays, to perfection. They play a tough 1-3-1 zone that confuses opponents. West Virginia plays smart basketball and this comes directly from their coach. They are 7^th in the country in fewest turnovers per game (11.4) and 16^th in the country in assists per game (17.2). They have one of the best assist to turnover ratios in the country (1.51)

The main weakness for the Mountaineers is their lack of strength on the frontline. They are one of the worst rebounding teams in the country, 259^th in the country in rebounding margin a game. They usually struggle against physical teams such as Pittsburgh. The Panthers out rebounded the Mountaineers 35-20 in their recent 60-47 win over the Mountaineers at Morgantown.

(posted by SY)

Tourney File: Georgetown

2007-02-10T19:28:00.000-05:00

Here is the first of a periodic breakdown of teams expected to be in the NCAA Tournament

Georgetown

What to Like: Georgetown has one of the few true centers in college basketball in Roy Hibbert. At 7'2", he is tall and heavy enough to matchup favorably against Greg Oden and Ohio State, a team that most teams have to be worried as hell about when they get their assignments in March. His improvement over the years been steady (scoring up one point per, rebounds down nearly one per, and blocks up by eight-tenths) but his true asset has been his health-- he has not missed a game this season.

What to be Pleasantly Surprised By: Sticking with Hibbert, he has managed to avoid fouling out of any games this season. In the two non-blowout games he has played with fourfouls, Hibbert was on the court for 33 and 35 minutes against Oral Roberts and Louisville, respectively. Having a big man who can avoid the stupid, crippling fouls will take you far in March.

What Will Keep Them From Winning: Guard play. While Jeff Green is the Hoyas' second leading scorer, he has been clamped down when the competition moves from the Hartford/Navy/James Madison category to the Old Dominion/Duke/Oregon/Villanova category. Green has fouled out twice this season (ODU and Oregon) and had four fouls against the Blue Devils. It's exponentially more difficult to win when your premier perimeter threat is saddled with foul problems.

What We Don't Know: Which big-game Georgetown team is going to show up? Will it be the team that masterfully took down Duke at the Verizon Center last season? Or will it be the team who comically handed the game-- and eventually the Big East tournament-- to Syracuse last year at Madison Square Garden? The Hoyas advanced to the Sweet Sixteen, only to run into the buzzsaw that was the Florida Gators. Has JT III gained some semblence of late game coaching? Or should we start pencilling in the Hoyas for an early exit?

Who Do They Want to Play?: Memphis. Georgetown is athletic enough to run with the Tigers, and to boot, they have an NBA caliber center who can deter the slashers on Calipari's squad from getting too far into the lane.

Who Don't They Want to Play?: UCLA, Texas A&M and Florida are huge matchup problems for them. UCLA and the Aggies play extremely physical perimeter defense which will bottle up Green and make their entry passes to Hibbert less effective, and Florida's versatile big men will draw Hibbert away from his comfort zone.

Prediction: Sixth seed in an unfavorable region. Georgetown had lofty pre-season expectations, and will likely be punished for not fulfilling them when the committee meets after the conference tourneys conclude.

(posted by JH)

Breaking Down the ACC Action 2/10

2007-02-09T20:48:00.000-05:00

Wake Forest (RPI 135) @ North Carolina (RPI 2)- Has the whole world gone crazy? Wake Forest a football school? They would be play in game bound in the old days. The world is off its axis with FSU, Virginia Tech, and Clemson looking like legit tourney teams. When is the real heat going to turn on Skip Prosser? His teams have been bottom feeders since the Chris Paul gravy train departed Winston-Salem.

The Heels have shown some youthful inconsistency on the road, but they are the most talented team in the country. When this team comes to play, they can’t be touched.

Matchup to watch: Kyle Visser vs. Tyler Hansborough and Brendan Wright. It’s two against one. Visser has been the only player to consistently bring it for Wake. Look for Visser to pick a few quick whistles as the onslaught begins.

Prediction: This one is over in warm ups. Heels big.

Virginia (RPI 31) @ Virginia Tech (RPI 35)- An exciting matchup with implications in the ACC race. Both teams are probably safely, but this one is huge for the Hokies. They have been leaking oil after a hot start with three straight conference losses. If this team continues, their two sub 150 RPI losses could come back to haunt them on selection Sunday.

On the other hand, UVA has caught fire after the debacle in Puerto Rico. They know who their horses are in JR Reynolds and Sean Singeltary. This teams confidence is through the roof right now after the Clemson comeback. That is a momentum boost that a team can ride deep into March.

Matchup to watch: Tywon Lawson and Wayne Ellington may be the future, but the two best backcourts in the ACC are going to be on display in Blacksburg. Singeltary/Reynolds vs. Dowdell/Gordon will be one too watch.

Prediction: VPI in a close one to end the Hoos winning streak.

NC State (RPI 105) @ Miami (RPI 171)- If the Wolfpack have any intention of making a move towards the bubble, this one is the first of many must wins. Sidney Lowe looks to have the Wolfpack in the right direction and with Atsur (What is this, his 9th year?) back healthy. They have the talent to beat anyone in the conference.

The Canes have to be ready to pack this season in. It started off on a bad note with Frank Haith’s personal tragedy and never got better. This season was over before Christmas as they picked up losses to Buffalo (RPI 221), Cleveland State (RPI 278), and Bighampton (RPI 279). Miami has been decimated by injuries and will only suit up two players over 6’3 tommorow.

Matchup to watch: NC State’s frontcourt of Brendan Costner, Gavin Grant, and Ben McCauley vs. Miami’s depleted bunch. NCSU’s trio goes 6’8, 6’9, 6’10 and combine to average 47.7 PPG and 19.8 RPG. This matchup could get ugly with some quick fouls. Miami just doesn’t have the size.

Prediction: Miami fights hard for a half at home, but they’re outmanned after the intermission. NC State picks up a road win and hangs onto its dance hopes by a thread.

-PS

Digger Phelps Doesn't Understand Your Mathematical Formulas

2007-02-09T19:10:00.000-05:00

It's starting to get towards that time of the year again. That's right, within only a few weeks good ole Digger Phelps will whip out yet another matching tie-lighter combo and attempt to rationalize that the RPI is flawed because it is inflating the rankings of teams from mid-major conferences yet again. Get excited for this absolute clinic in drinking the big conference kool-aid. Every Missouri Valley team in the RPI top 150?!?!? (Something no other conference outside the SEC can brag about, by the way). For shame! Those wacky computers have done it again! Hey Digger, you are slowly morphing into basketball's Joe Morgan. Let me explain...

First, let's pause for a few things. The RPI is merely one tool used by the Tournament Selection Committee used to evaluate teams. It's not the end-all-be-all factor in determining who is in and who is out for a chance at winning a national championship (Suck on it, college football!). In 1999, New Mexico went dancing with an RPI of 74, yet Missouri State's bubble burst last year with an RPI of 21. It's more of a predictor of who will not make it, if anything. There are numerous other things considered - home/road splits, record in the last 10 games, strength of schedule, win/loss record, etc. - hell, even injuries! - that get you into the field and determine your seeding. So, first and foremost, let's calm down about the RPI. It's one factor.

Second, it's a formula (using "25% your winning percentage plus 50% opponents' winning percentage plus 25% opponents' opponents' winning percentage" as its basis, adjusted for home/away, for those of you wondering), so it's objective. It can't cheat, it doesn't know who teams are, it simply plugs the math. It's only when twisted in the hands of humans and analysts that it could become subjective.

So, back to Digger's (and numerous other talking-heads) point(s) - the RPI has favored the mid-major teams last year (as I expect the argument to be this year as well) due to the fact that these teams get "overly inflated" RPIs before conference play begins, then play each other round-robin within league play, thus keeping their RPIs stable and still relatively "inflated". Last year, some analysts argued that the Missouri Valley and Colonial Athletic Conferences were rewarded with more bids, four and two (thanks, JD) respectively, from previous years that were in line with their increasing RPI ratings from previous years. Fair point. So how do these numbers get inflated to begin with? The answer to this question is two-fold. One, they all play difficult schedules in the pre-conference season (What a brilliant concept!). Two, the RPI system rewards them for playing and winning road heavy schedules and has since 2004 when home/away games became weighted and, in order to get games with power schools, middies have to play on the road.

Are these mid-major schools working the current RPI system? Absolutely. Could power conference schools do the exact same thing? Absolutely... and then some. You know how many mid (and low) majors would kill for an opportunity to get a few power conference teams on their home floors in front of their fans? The problem is power conference teams (this includes your beloved Notre Dame, Digger) are driven by money (increased revenue of home games) and the fear of losing to teams they "shouldn't lose to." Plain and simple. So, yes, the RPI is working very much so in favor of the mid-majors who smartly schedule their games, but BCS-level schools have everything on their side to do the exact same thing and many of them decline to take advantage.

My major point is this - how is the RPI incorrect when you have a strong mid-major conference schedule helping keep your personal RPI high but working perfectly when you are a major conference player who uses their tough conference schedule to boost their RPI? It's a double-edged sword and completely contradictory. Look at programs like UConn and Syracuse. Every year they feast off inferior opponents lined up on their home court through December and generally have mediocre RPIs heading into conference play, where their RPIs climb to the top due to the strength of the Big East.

For instance, let's take a look at 2006 Syracuse, which racked up a 7-9 Big East record but won the Big East Tournament to earn a 5 seed in the NCAAs, quite possibly one of the most ridiculous seeds I've ever seen the Selection Committee hand out. This is a team that was 7-9 (!) in conference play with the 249th ranked non-conference schedule, yet they had an RPI of 18. This was merely a testament of the strength of the Big East and Syracuse's conference schedule, yet I saw nobody dropping their two cents on this. Instead, Digger said the RPI was flawed because all the Valley teams racked up good, but not great, resumes in non-conference and their conference play was just them feasting off the RPIs of their own league. Isn't this the exact same thing? Aren't both teams (Syracuse & whatever contending MVC team you choose) relying on the strength of their leagues to boost their own rank?

Perhaps the mid-major bitching will cease this year due to George Mason, but somehow I doubt it. Every year, the "expert" analysis never ceases to amaze me.

-- RK

Expand the Dance?

2007-02-08T20:35:00.000-05:00

Jay Bilas poses the question of NCAA tournament expansion in his blog today, and it's the belief of this single blogger that there is only one solution:

Make the tournament smaller. Get rid of the godforsaken play-in game.

For starters, the very concept of the play-in game is demeaning. On one hand, it guarantees teams from the MEAC, SWAC, NEC, and other low rent conferences their lone spotlight in a nationally televised game that gives their school, alumni and players recognition usually reserved for serial killers and rapists on the loose. On the other and more dominant and funny hand, you've got two teams fighting for the right to be sacrificed on regional coverage on Friday evening by a name brand school whose cocky alumni couldn't tell you what the MEAC stood for.

(Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference, for the uninformed)

Back to the point-- the play-in game was created for teams like Bobby Knight's most recent Indiana and Texas Tech teams, Steve Alford and the Iowa Hawkeyes to continue reaping the benefits of historic conference affiliation which allows them garner higher computer ratings because of their peers. Do we really want to continue recognizing a .500 season in a power league, just to bow out early?

Will this happen? I think so. Now that the NCAA is in control of the NIT, it is in their best interest to make sure that some of the marquee names in college hoops are left to shill tickets at MSG in March. In years previous, teams like this current version of Connecticut and Illinois could be confident that the committee would smile on them, and sneak them into the tournament. Parity argument aside, this should change. Why would the NCAA want to have UI or UConn play one weekend in the Big Dance, when they can advance well into the Little Dance? As we all know, the NCAA makes it's decisions on one factor: money. Why should we expect postseason basketball to be any different?

(posted by JH)

Building the Mid-Major

2007-02-07T19:34:00.000-05:00

It shouldn't come as a great surprise that George Mason is "down" this year. They lost a bunch of talent from their Final Four squad (see the below post) and play in one of the underrated conferences in the country. The real concern, as stated, is capitalizing on their year in the spotlight and emerging as the east coast mid-major.

Obviously, when you talk mid-major success, one program stands above the rest as a blueprint for others to follow - Gonzaga. So, how did they do it? How do they continue to power through the WCC each and every year, seemingly locking themselves into an NCAA seeding without the help of the automatic bid awarded to the conference tournament winner? How did they change from simply being the trivial answer to where John Stockton played his collegiate ball to a national name? It's not an easy answer, which is probably why it's been so difficult to duplicate at other middies.

When Gonzaga first took the basketball world by storm in 1999, making it all the way to the West Regional Final before falling at the hands of eventual champion Connecticut, they had come off a few good seasons (losses in the WCC title game and appearances in the NIT in '96 and '98) and had built a strong, veteran team. Since then, they have seemingly been able bring in talented players to reload their program.

Did the Gonzaga teams of '99 and '00 help that much on the recruiting front? To me, it's only marginal. Gonzaga still doesn't grab the top blue-chip recruits and settles for second or third tier players who they feel will fit their system. Take a look at their recruiting efforts since 2002. It's a small handful of recent 4-star recruits (Josh Heytvelt and David Pendergraft in 2004; Larry Gurganious in 2005; Matt Bouldin in 2006), but mostly 3-star guys (including some players that made up the nucleus of their recent teams like Derek Ravio, Adam Morrison and J.P. Batista) and some lesser-starred players. Additionally, they have combed the world and won talents overlooked by other programs (Ronny Turiaf out of France) and have since their '99 run gained some highly regarded transfers. Former All-American Dan Dickau and 2006 role player Erroll Knight both transferred from Washington to Gonzaga, and recently, former 5-star recruit Micah Downs transferred in from Kansas.

If it helps anywhere on the recruiting trail, it'd be on the marginal D-1 Pac-10 players I would guess. Gonzaga has become the mid-major "name" program out west, a place where marginal "power conference" players from the northwest as well as solid players from ranking tiers below them choose to play their basketball. Can George Mason corner that market in DC? That's a tall order simply due to the volume of schools at not only the power conference level (with the ACC and Big East home to schools right in their backyard) but also at the mid-major level.

The biggest key has to be continuity. Since Dan Monson left to take over at Minnesota after the '99 run, Mark Few has been at the helm and taken his team to the NCAAs each year, winning the league regular season and earning WCC Coach of the Year honors every year but 2000. Few has built an absolute beast of a mid-major and, because of it, is able to schedule unlike any mid-major by getting home-and-home or mirroring neutral games with the big boys. A huge reason for this is because while Gonzaga was building its reputation, Few was willing to travel his team any time, anywhere to play anybody. Most importantly, Few hasn't hardly even considered a new job, spurning many potential suitors at the instant his name has been thrown into the head coaching ring.

Can George Mason coach Jim Larranaga duplicate this success? One thing working against Larranaga is his age, as he is in his late-50s with Few in his mid-40s. If and when Larranaga does move on or move elsewhere, I would suggest building and hiring from within, as Gonzaga did with Few. First, however, Larranaga needs to guide his team back to the NCAAs by next season. The success has to happen again and soon. Fans and recruits need to be reminded that they aren't a one-hit wonder. We live in a society that is built to forget championship game losers. In order for George Mason to stay out of major college basketball obscurity, they need to remain fresh in people's minds.

-- RK

e-dimes

2007-02-06T20:14:00.000-05:00

Here are some relevant (at least to me) links in the news today:

Tyrus Thomas: Dunkin fo' dollaz. I guess the Bulls would rather be known as the franchise that cares more about headbands than financial security.

Indianapolis is excited for Butler. Not really, but there is at least one article about their climb to the Top 10.

Keeping with the mid-majors, here is a passionate, if not misguided, take on George Mason's woes this season. Not sure what the author is trying to say, but it's not exactly breaking news that mid-majors have to rebuild from scratch after big seasons. Locally, Mason plays fourth fiddle (at a minimum) to Maryland, Georgetown and Maryland's womens basketball team. The Final Four will payoff in about 2-3 years, but for now, it was just a three week long publicity tour for Coach L and the university. And I say this with my GMU Final Four t-shirt on, as I look at my Lamar Butler SI.

(posted by JH)

One Shining Moment

2007-02-06T14:02:00.001-05:00

Welcome to One Shining Moment, the Web's umpteenth billion blog! Now with 100% more pretentiousness and self-importance!

My thought of the day:

Not only should Greg Oden be the first pick in the NBA Draft, but there shouldn't be a second of debate. Not to dismiss local product Kevin Durant, but Oden is an NBA-ready center who reminds me of a hybrid of Dikembe Mutombo and Alonzo Mourning. I think the media is overhyping his one-handedness as dominance, where it shows a boatload of toughness to play through a season with discomfort in the wrist. I think it'll be interesting to see how Durant can respond to playing against bigger opponents in the league with his slight 199 lb. frame. 6'9" guard/forwards are nice, but last I remember, Toni Kukoc was a marginal professional...not a franchise player.

(posted by JH)